It may be hard to remember or even imagine now, but Illinois used to be a more politically balanced state. For instance George H.W. Bush won in the Land of Lincoln back in 1988, which he didn't do in the now much more conservative West Virginia, and it's been only about a decade since a Republican was able to win a Senate election in the state (in that case, Peter Fitzgerald). Illinois might not have been a "swing state," per se, but it certainly was competetive.
Now, though, not so much. In last year's gubernatorial race, to take one example, Republican state Treasurer Judy Baar Topinka was supposed to give incumbent Democrat Rod Blagojevich, who had come under serious ethics heat, a real run for his money but ended up garnering just 40 percent of the vote. 2004 GOP Senate nominee Alan Keyes performed even more poorly -- much more so, in fact -- pulling in a mere 27 percent of the vote. Perhaps those were just anomolies, you say? Perhaps not. Take a look at the latest Glengariff Group poll of Illinois adults taken back in the middle of May that shows the man who could potentially be the strongest Republican candidate in the state, former Governor Jim Edgar, trailing -- and trailing badly -- against Democratic Senator Dick Durbin.
The poll also posed a hypothetical U.S. Senate race between Durbin and former Gov. Jim Edgar, yielding a Durbin advantage of 53-32 percent. Edgar is not expected to run for that or any other office.
More numbers from the poll:
The poll of 600 people taken May 15-18 by Chicago-based Glengariff Group found U.S. Sen. Barack Obama's job-approval rating at 73.2 percent while U.S. Sen. Dick Durbin enjoyed a 62.2 overall job approval.
The Republican Party does not need Illinois in order to win the White House. We've seen as much in the last two presidential elections. But if the GOP has any hope of retaking the Senate this cycle, they're going to have to find some Democratic seats to challenge. And that of the Senate Majority Whip, a position that requires a high level of partisanship that does not always play well back home (even in states that trend towards the party of the Senator), should be a natural target for Republicans.
This poll indicates that such a challenge -- if not a competitive one, then at least one that would force Durbin to work for his reelection, limiting his ability to campaign and raise money elsewhere -- just isn't going to happen. If one of the best possible choices for the GOP, a relatively popular former Governor, can't do better than trail Durbin by 20 points, it's hard to imagine a less popular, less well known and potentially less well funded candidate doing so.
And while these numbers might not indicate the end of the Illinois GOP -- after all, they do still hold nine of the state's 19 congressional seats -- at the same time they don't do much to instill confidence in the viability of the party in the state, either.
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