LAT: Clinton Holds Primary Lead, Obama Strongest in General?

The latest Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll (.pdf) was released this afternoon. It appears to have a bit of a lean towards the Republicans -- the Democrats in the poll have a generic presidential ballot lead of just 8 points compared to almost all other polling that shows the generic Democrat's lead to be in the upper teens -- but it's nonetheless interesting to see how the various candidates stack up against each other in potential general election matchups.

First, though, the numbers on the Democratic primary: Clinton 33, Obama 22, Gore 15, Edwards 8, Biden 5, Richardson 4, Kucinich 2, Dodd 1. Among just the top three Democrats currently in the race, the numbers are as follows: Clinton 42, Obama 32, Edwards 20.

McCain45McCain45McCain35
Clinton41Edwards40Obama47
Giuliani49Giuliani43Giuliani41
Clinton39Edwards46Obama46
Romney43Romney32Romney34
Clinton41Edwards46Obama50

Again, these numbers don't seem to jibe to well with other recent polling. Specifically, other surveys just don't show the Republican candidates performing this well.

Nonetheless, it is interesting to see that, broadly, both Obama and Edwards run better in the head-to-head matchups than Clinton. This is actually borne out in other such polling as well. While I think this is largely a factor of Clinton's near universal name recognition, which any Democratic nominee would have by the time voters decide the next President in November 2008 (and thus it is not necessarily the case that Clinton would be a weaker general election candidate than either Edwards or Obama), these numbers do seem to undercut the notion shared by many Democratic primary voters that Clinton is the most "electable" candidate in the race.



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Re: LAT: Clinton Holds Primary (none / 0)

I think it is interesting that a poll which may favor Republicans shows Obama performing better - makes since given his corss-over appeal.


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 01:42:35 AM EST

Re: LAT: Clinton Holds Primary Lead, Obama Stronge (none / 0)

Weird.  McCain beats both Edwards and HRC but Obama kicks his ass?  Both Edwards and Obama kick Romney's ass but HRC loses to him?  I don't know that I can make any sense of all that.


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 02:18:03 AM EST

Re: LAT: Clinton Holds Primary Lead, Obama Stronge (none / 0)

That's what I thought.

McCain has never polled better than Giuliani in a head-to-head match-up. Very strange indeed.


by adamterando on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 09:37:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hmm... (none / 0)

I kinda wish Edwards or Obama would co Kamikaze against Hillary, the way Gephardt did against Dean. That way, while bot candidates poll numbers would decline, either Obama or Edwards would end up the winner. I think Edwards would in a better position to do this, since he's already courted the left so much.

Or something.  God I hope Hillary Loses.


by delmoi on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 02:27:44 AM EST

Re: Hmm... (none / 0)

She won't have any coat tails.  I don't know why more people don't write about this.  It is obvious that Edwards and Obama appealed to Independents and others that don't always vote Dem.  HRC doesn't.


John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion
by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 02:33:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm... (none / 0)

I'm thinking of writing on this - as a Texan I'm really concerned about our down ticket races if hill is the nominee.


"I'm LeBron, baby. I can play on this level. I got some game." Barack Obama
by gb1437a on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 02:44:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm... (3.00 / 1)

according to pro Hillary posters the fact that Hillary brings no votes to the table that any other democrat couldn't get is not important. Sooner or later we will have to resolve the paradox that seems to be Hillary, she's the most conservative of the 3 democrats who are serious contenders, the most selected by establishment democrats but she also is the most polarizing and by far the most disliked by the general electorate, sooner or later Hillary is going to have to either improve her image with the public as a whole or even establishment dems or those that think Hillary is the most "qualified" ect....will start to wake up and realize what a disaster her nomination could be.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 02:34:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm... (none / 0)

Obama doesn't have to all he has to do is subtly make the case that hhillary is unelectable with polls like the LA times and Glaaups favs it won't be a difficult case to make.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 02:36:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm... (none / 0)

Frankly I think it is Hillary who will have to attack Obama sooner or later.  If I was him I would just keep my powder dry and wait for the siege.  According to this www.pollster.com graphic  Hillary is slowly but steadily declining and Obama just as slowly but steadily gaining.  Not rocket science to plot the intersection of these current trends somewhere around December 2008.  She's the one who has got to do something to reverse this trend, not Obama or Edwards.


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 02:59:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm... (none / 0)

Correction December 2007.


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 03:01:30 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm... (none / 0)

Looks to me more like Jan. or Feb. 2008, and Edwards will catch her by 2011 or something, all else being equal.


"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR
by jallen on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 03:18:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hmm... (none / 0)

Fair enough and thanks.  Always happy to hear from you, Jallen.  In any case, it is Hillary's move...


by Shaun Appleby on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 03:24:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Very interesting point (none / 0)

You should diary this.
by horizonr on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 09:22:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

New hampshire dems say (3.00 / 1)

they like Obama more than Hillary but view Hillary as more electable than Obama ,all that needs to happen to turn those mistaken Hillary backers around(most of them anyways is simply show them polls that half of americans view Hillary as untrustworthy, unlikeable and that most general election matchups show her the worst possable nominee, right now many dem voters see her far differently than indies and other swing voters on both parties fringes, that said the fact that Hillary leads among dem voters on electability shows they are simply not informed or don't quite understand why she's such a rsdio-active candidate, I read an article today about how some dem leaders are becoming concerned about her numbers, well welcome to the party, better know than never.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 03:45:47 AM EST

Re: LAT: Clinton Holds Primary Lead, Obama Stronge (none / 0)

Look at their sample...
Included are 1,056 registered voters, 449 Democratic Primary voters and 408 Republican Primary voters.

Does that make any sense?
Everything I've seen indicates that Repub numbers are tanking... the electorate is certainly not divided 52/48 percent Dem/Repub, as their sample is.
by Victor Laszlo on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 04:58:57 AM EST

Georgep, please spin this (3.00 / 0)

if you can. Your candidate is awful in the general.

And don't just reply that Democrats like her. I know they do. That is not the issue. The issue is that Hillary Clinton a worthless choice for the general election.


The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.
by Populism2008 on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 08:14:09 AM EST

Re: LAT: Clinton Holds Primary Lead, Obama Stronge (none / 0)

When are we going to change the debate from "Can Clinton win the general election?" to "Should Clinton be president?" I believe any Dem who wins the primary will win but I don't believe either Clinton or Obama are the leader we need coming off the worst leader in world history. We have a perfect storm of Global warming possibly peak oil and a right wing started religious war. Not to mention health care poverty and corruption. We need a LEADER not an "Ill wait for the polls then take a safe political position", kind of President. Can Clinton win OF COURSE, Should she win NO!


by TucsonTom on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 08:16:04 AM EST

Bad media coverage is sinking Edwards (none / 0)

Unfair as it is, media coverage counts...a lot.
We have seen a flurry of stories about Edwards, which are insignificant for us smart people but meaningful to the average dumb voter.
Haircuts, Speeches that were not given for free, and other junk disguised as news.
Low income and middle-class Democrats seem to have believed the bad opinions to a certain extent.
Let's not forget America elected George W. Bush. Never over-estimate Americans' intelligence when it comes to electing their representatives.

by kingsbridge77 on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 09:10:24 AM EST

Is Edwards Tanking? (none / 0)

Real Clear Politics shows Edwards' Dem primary poll average having sunk from 17.8% in mid-April to 10.3% now.  None of the last six polls have had him over 12%, and two have had him in single digits.

His supporters like to talk about his strength in the early primary states, but really that just means Iowa; he's consistently running third in NH, NV, SC, and FL.

Meanwhile, Gore is moving up; he's been polling better in the past two weeks than he has all year.  If Edwards doesn't do something to reverse his slide soon, I'm going to rejoin the ranks of those imploring Gore to jump into the race.


by RT on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 09:36:34 AM EST

Re: Is Edwards Tanking? (none / 0)

It's funny, I noticed that when Edwards rose in the national polls, he started sinking in Iowa, now that he's moving up in Iowa again, he's sinking in national polls.


"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR
by jallen on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 09:49:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: LAT: Obama Strongest in General? (none / 0)

The worst possible thing we could have electorally is a candidate that is perceived as conservative by the base, and either detestable or too liberal by the general electorate.  You need to draw to an inside straight to win the Electoral College, and down-ticket candidates are hurt.

That, my friends, is Hillary Clinton.

Or, you could have a candidate that actually is significantly left of center, but who strikes the general electorate as reasonable and likeable.  To me, this seems like the way to transform the country and govern with a true progressive mandate.  Down-ticket candidates are, at minimum, not hurt by the Presidential candidate, and in many cases helped.

That, my friends, is Barack Obama.  Even if he doesn't pound the table as much as you would like.


by NC State Dem on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 09:53:07 AM EST

Re: LAT: Clinton Holds Primary Lead, Obama Stronge (none / 0)

I was really surprised by this poll.  You guys seem pretty up on your polling results.  Do most of the national polls have Obama polling this strong?  


My political forums page
by sea shadow on Tue Jun 12, 2007 at 10:47:11 AM EST

Re: LAT: Clinton Holds Primary Lead, Obama Stronge (none / 0)

If other polls start to show Edwards is in single digits his campaign may not be able to keep any momentum going in Iowa.


BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Wed Jun 13, 2007 at 01:35:15 AM EST


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