To provide some more context on the 2008 election, I thought it was about time to compliment my Democratic Nomination At A Glance chart with a Republican Nomination At A Glance chart:
Republican Nomination, At a Glance, June 12
State polls are all May 08-June 12, except Nevada. Last update: June 12, 12:30 pm eastern
| State |
Est. Date |
# Polls |
Romney |
Giuliani |
McCain |
F. Thompson |
| Net Avail Cash |
Mar 31 |
Q1 |
$9.1M |
$9.7M |
$2.6M |
-- |
| Iowa |
Jan 07 |
6 |
22.0% |
16.8% |
17.3% |
9.8% |
| New Hampshire |
Jan 15 |
4 |
28.8% |
19.2% |
20.8% |
8.2% |
| Nevada |
Jan 19 |
4 |
13.3% |
30.3% |
17.8% |
10.0% |
| South Carolina |
Jan 22 |
4 |
11.5% |
18.5% |
19.5% |
14.8% |
| Florida |
Jan 29 |
5 |
12.0% |
30.6% |
13.2% |
15.4% |
| National |
Feb 05 |
8 |
10.5% |
26.0% |
15.8% |
16.5% |
As the Green Papers notes, these dates are very tentative. Right now, the South Carolina Republican primary is scheduled for February 2nd, but I bet it moves up. Also, Republicans have not yet announced a Nevada caucus on January 19th, but they are strongly considering it. Further, Wyoming seems to be holding its caucus on January 22nd, but there are no polls and I'm not sure anyone will notice.
No matter what the primary calendar looks like, a quick look at this chart reveals just how confused the Republican nomination process is right now. Romney holds Iowa and New Hampshire, but trails Giuliani badly in both Florida and the national polls. The two are just about even in money. McCain, despite still clinging to a narrow lead in South Carolina, pretty much looks like he is done here. He is well behind in money, in national polls, and in most early state polls. Thompson clearly has an opportunity, but he also clearly hasn't shot to the top. Just compare this chaos to the seemingly orderly Democratic nomination:
Democratic Nomination, At a Glance, June 12
State polls are all May 08-June 12, except Nevada. Last update: June 12, 12:30 pm eastern
| State |
Est. Date |
# Polls |
Clinton |
Obama |
Edwards |
Richardson |
| Net Avail Cash |
Mar 31 |
Q1 |
$23.4M |
$17.7M |
$9.6M |
$5.0M |
| Iowa |
Jan 07 |
6 |
22.8% |
19.8% |
27.7% |
8.3% |
| New Hampshire |
Jan 15 |
5 |
32.4% |
20.0% |
15.2% |
9.2% |
| Nevada |
Jan 19 |
4 |
34.0% |
17.5% |
13.8% |
5.0% |
| South Carolina |
Jan 22 |
4 |
30.3% |
26.0% |
17.5% |
-- |
| Florida |
Jan 29 |
6 |
36.0% |
20.7% |
15.8% |
-- |
| National--High |
Feb 05 |
5 |
38.2% |
28.0% |
13.0% |
-- |
| National--Low |
Feb 05 |
7 |
33.9% |
24.3% |
11.0% |
-- |
All the same notes from yesterday's poll still apply. It certainly is unusual to see Republicans so much more chaotic than Democrats. In recent years leaders of the Republican Party have made pleasing their base their number one priority, while Democratic leaders are more prone to ignore their base. Right now, if I had to guess, the most likely outcome appears to be Clinton defeating Romney in the general election. However, there is a long, long time to go, and by "most likely" I mean something like a 5-10% chance. With most candidates lacking much "hard" support, with the primary calendars still in flux, with new financial reports due in three weeks, with early state poll numbers still showing highly varied results, and with the still possible entry of more candidates in the campaign, there should be enough chaos to go around on both sides.
