2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism

Earlier today I mentioned that there are people in Maryland's fourth considering jumping into the primary race against Al Wynn now that Donna Edwards showed him as vulnerable.  This is actually happening in a few districts, and it's something I would discourage.  I don't have a problem with most primary races, and I tend to think they are good for bringing out public debate.  But if a candidate is in a longshot race and ends up coming very close to pulling off an upset without any institutional backing, it's bad form not to let them have another chance.  After all, what kind of incentive is it to candidates to run for Congress in longshot races if they know that coming close will only lead to a more cautious and established politician leaping in to push them out of the way?

Take New York's 29th and Eric Massa.  Rochester Turning put this out some time ago and I've been meaning to link to it.

This is craziness - Bausch and Lomb exec Dave Nachbar (who lives in Pittsford) may challenge Massa for Democratic nomination of the 29th district. Talk about a fool's errand.

I'm going to put this simply: No Democrat from the 29th has any chance of winning in the general election if he's not from down south (Massa, who almost won last time, is from Corning). None. Zero. Zippo. Nil. What a terrible waste of time and energy for a man who, by all accounts, sounds like he has a lot to offer. If he's willing to move to Steuben County, live there for a few years, and then run, God bless him. But he'll never win the general election in this district running from up here.

Louise Slaughter is backing Dave Nachbar, and Nachbar is self-financing.  Massa has done an enormous amount of work to build the party in the district, and ran when it looked like he had very little chance.  And he lost narrowly, with no support from the DCCC.  

Slaughter's move here is puzzling, though Nachbar is a maxed out donor to her so some loyalty makes sense.  Nachbar was also a maxed out donor to the DCCC in 2006, and apparently is a good guy.  Still, he doesn't have grassroots support and he didn't step up last cycle before it was clear Kuhl was vulnerable.

I don't like the whiff of opportunism here.  Lots of candidates challenged Republicans in 2006 and got no establishment support.  It's time for the party insiders, many of whom regret not throwing more support into districts like the 29th, help talk people like Nachbar out of the race.

I don't get Louise Slaughter, though she is fairly old politics and the lure of self-funding might be high for her.



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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

i disagree completely...

anyone who wants to run should run. the more people that run the better.. the more people involved in politics the better

i would never discourage anyone from running for office....

thats why we have primaries!

to say that because someone came close when few expected them to do so that then that same person should automatically represent the democratic party is undemocratic.


by serge in dc on Mon May 07, 2007 at 08:53:32 PM EST

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (3.00 / 2)

That's fair.  I still think it's bad form for Louise Slaughter to support Nachbar.


by Matt Stoller on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:02:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (3.00 / 2)

Exactly.  Running on your own--good thing.  Pushed by the establishment--bad thing.  The people like Eric Massa.  If someone wants to come into the race and show that the people like him/her better--great!!!  I'm all for it.  But having old politics force someone the people don't like down the people's throats (and, yes, we've seen this before) is not OK.


by ICantBelieve on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:11:58 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

actually old politics is giving people no options..old politics is having no primaries..

its silly to say people should not run cause "the establishment" wants them to.. who cares?

people in the establishment are americans too and they get to vote and try to encourage people to run just like progressives do..


by serge in dc on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:18:33 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Serge, the problem is this:

To take on an entrenched incumbent like Kuhl, (and Kuhl is entrenched. He shows up to cut ribbons at every function, the local newspapers cover him incessantly, etc) Massa needs to start campaigning as early as possible. A possible primary challenger will scare off many (big) donors. They don't want to donate to Massa, only to have him lose the primary.

Secondly, the DCCC is officially neutral in the race (and rumored to favor Nachbar) as opposed to actively working with Massa by the get go

Thus, Nachbar serves to undermine Massa by siphoning  institutional support. Furthermore, a Nachbar candidacy delays any significant action by Massa and supporters till after the primary.

We here in NY-29 love Eric. Nachbar is a top down candidate imposed by Louise, who seems to be trying to set up a power base for herself. Feel free to read RochesterTurning.com or TheAlbanyProject.com for more.


by sayhar on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:31:24 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Old politics = multi-millionaires trying to buy elections via TV ads after being "blessed" by senior power brokers.  The Massa model is bottom up and that is new politics.


by howardpark on Mon May 07, 2007 at 10:48:25 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

new politics is not having to face challengers in primaries??

if thats new politics give me the old politics where people could elect to run for office without having you tell them not to!


by serge in dc on Tue May 08, 2007 at 01:34:07 AM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

let's not forget that she is supporting nachbar again. she supported him for the dem nod in '06 as well, only he had a slight problem. he wasn't actually, ya know, a democrat and the local party folks much preferred massa.


it's time: the albany project
by lipris on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:34:36 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Listen to local, active, netroots Democrats NOT powerful corporate Democrats.  Eric Massa has built local, grassroots support -- his campaign inspired local blogs in an area that is not exactly a Democratic hotbed --  and he is now faced with a BIG money challanger and powerful people pushing someone else.  Bad choice.  Anyone has the right to run.  But its not always right to run.


by howardpark on Mon May 07, 2007 at 10:36:16 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

agreed.

that's kinda the whole point. my site as well as rochester turning and the fighting 29th have been making this point over and over again for a week or so now.


it's time: the albany project
by lipris on Tue May 08, 2007 at 12:04:11 AM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Massa lost by only two points....in a heretofore solid red district.

Nachbar has nothing going for him except that he's rich. Democracy in action?  I think not.


by pelican on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:06:02 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

don't be crazy! massa will clean house in the primary then.. personally i am really hoping massa wins the whole enchilada!

but being rich does not automatically disqualify one from running for political office

man people on this site will argue anything

are we now seriously going to argue that people shouldn't want to run for office?


by serge in dc on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:11:10 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

She said that he had nothing else going for him.  She didn't say being rich or self-funded was a bad thing.


by ICantBelieve on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:13:38 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

well pardon me but i think the implication was clear..

in any case what are we arguing about here??

everyone should run..whether they have anything going or not who cares? let the voters decide!!!!


by serge in dc on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:16:13 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Being self funding shouldn't be the prerequisite for running. The ability to win should be.

In Nachbar's case it's all about him being self funding. He has no grass roots support and is from up-district...which is poison for a Dem.


by pelican on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:18:36 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Yes, I'm happy to argue that big money candidates should not run against candidates who have, instead, based thier campaigns on grass roots support just like I'd argue that Wal-Mart should be kept out of certain locations in certain circumstances.  In a perfect world of total, free, pure consumer or voter choice it might be different.  This is about strategic choices not rights.


by howardpark on Mon May 07, 2007 at 10:27:52 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

i don't think your thoughts about strategic choices should have anything to do with my rights.

its a dicey proposition when anyone abrogates the right to decide whats the "correct" strategic choice for everyone else..


by serge in dc on Tue May 08, 2007 at 01:41:11 AM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

So everybody should run in primaries everytime in the name of choice?  C'mon.


by howardpark on Tue May 08, 2007 at 10:36:22 AM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Personally, I think having powerful grassroots efforts and progressive views are what will lead the Democrats into a domination period over Republicans over the next couple of decades.  (If we manage to elect good candidates and bring more good candidates to the fight.)  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Mon May 07, 2007 at 08:56:25 PM EST

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Eric Massa is a very strong candidate, and he could very well be the man who rescues this country from the shame of having a person like Randy Kuhl in Congress (shiver).

But numbers are numbers.  Eric Massa lost in 2006 by 3 points, not two.  Specifically, we're talking about a difference of 6,033 votes, of 206,111 votes cast.

Check here. (http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE /elections/2006/general/2006_cong.pdf> ;


Calmer than you are.
by Sheffield on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:16:07 PM EST

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

I hear what you're saying, but.. sometimes our candidate is not the best candidate, they just get close cause of the Republican candidate's failings, a wave, etc.

In the end, it's all about what the district wants. Nothing wrong with a good clean primary.


by lpackard on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:18:28 PM EST

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

I fear that 'clean primary' is an oxymoron. Obviously people have a right to run for office, but it does seem like the party establishment is behaving shabbily.

Also, I'd argue Massa was a pretty good candidate. Other candidates, like Reynolds' challenger, were pretty appalling, however.


Visit Forgotten Countries, my new foreign policy-based blog
by Englishlefty on Tue May 08, 2007 at 07:53:27 AM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Well, Massa did get about $58,500 from DCCC in his race, which means he got about $5000 more from the committee than did Christine Jennings down in FL-14, whom DCCC endorsed preprimary.

I think you're right that Slaughter shouldn't be backing a challenge to Massa, but for a different reason.  If we look back on 2006, candidates named to the "Red to Blue" Program before their primaries were more likely to get the nomination than not, but less likely to win in the general than "Red to Blue" candidates endorsed after they'd secured the nomination.  Duckworth, Jennings, Hafen, Lois Murphy...hell, the only preprimary "Red to Blue" candidates to make it into Congress so far (not counting candidates who had served before, like Lucas and Hill) have been Ed Perlmutter and Heath Shuler.  And at the same time, two grassroots candidates DCCC and party elites thought were unelectable--Jerry McNerney and Carol Shea-Porter--are both sitting in Congress right now.

If the previous nominee is running again, and he or she is not a convicted felon or known pedophile, then why do elites think it's necessary to back another candidate of their own choosing?  It creates a backlash and the statistical evidence seems to indicate that the risks outweigh the rewards, since the preprimary-endorsed candidates seem to lose at a faster rate than candidates that didn't have primaries or had already won their nominations.


by Jay R on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:23:59 PM EST

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Agree with you on this one completely, Matt.  What Serge misses in his comment is that sometimes it takes a trailblazer to show the way, to take the risk, and show that it can be done.  Eric Massa in the 29th was that trailblazer.  At tremendous personal sacrifice, he gritted out a tough race and came within a hair of winning, with no -- none, nada, zero, zilch -- support from the DCCC.  And what Serge misses is that sometimes it takes more than one cycle to manufacture a win.  The Republicans understand that. If Eric's 49-51 near-victory is now answered by a challenge from a self-funding corporatist, what's the lesson?  Where's the incentive to be a leader?

There is every reason to believe that in 2008, Eric can get that one more point that he needs to win, and take this District Blue. But if he has to spend precious dollars winning the right to a rematch, it becomes that much harder.  As Democrats -- and, by the way, not just progressives, but Democrats -- we need to start rewarding our trailblazers, who take on the tough fights.  Yes, Serge, Mr. Nachbar has the right to do many things, but it shows, I think, poor judgment and selfish opportunism to grasp this opportunity and make it harder for Eric Massa. What Mr. Nachbar ought to do is give more than the paltry $250 he gave to Eric last year.  

Meanwhile, what the rest of us can do is let Eric know that we're with him by logging in to his website, getting on his mailing list, and sending a few bucks. I met Eric this past weekend at the DFNY annual conference in Albany, and was impressed that he's the real deal.  That's why Eric Massa has become the second Congressional candidate outside my own District (the first was John Hall) that I'm supporting with my own hard-earned cash.  Here's a link to his .pdf donation form: http://www.massaforcongress.com/donor.pd f.

Go Blue!


by nycounsel on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:36:10 PM EST

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Do we know how much Nachbar will self-fund?

Last year he gave a bunch of money to Dems--Massa, Slaughter, DCCC, Courtney, Farrell, Gillibrand.  But it all added up to less than $10,000.  That won't get anybody very far in a serious campaign against a well-funded R incumbent.


Calmer than you are.
by Sheffield on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:41:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (3.00 / 2)

Correction:  Yes, the DCCC came in with a whopping $51K on the weekend before the election, after the RNCC had spent over $200K to prop up Randy Kuhl!  Up to that point, all the D-trip ponied up was a lousy $7500.  Even the Working Families Party did better than that!!!

Eric has spent his life in public service -- career military, then congressional staff -- so he's not a wealthy guy.  But he is a model of what our new generation of Democratic leadership ought to be, and he deserves our support, and opportunists like Mr. Nachbar deserve our input.  


by nycounsel on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:43:49 PM EST
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Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Matt, since i am not sure how to write you privately.. i have to say i am not sure where the insult(s) you refer to is(are).. if saying "thats silly" or "don't be crazy" is an insult then i don't know what!

anyways
take care.


by serge in dc on Mon May 07, 2007 at 09:56:31 PM EST

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

This smells uncomfortably like Cegelis/Duckworth.


by Lucas O'Connor on Mon May 07, 2007 at 10:03:36 PM EST

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (3.00 / 1)

Isn't the primary in September of 2008?  If so a primary that late leaves the winner with precious little time to build momentum before November.  We don't need a primary race leaving a vulnerable GOP incumbent free to do as he pleases until after a September Democratic primary.


by Mike Pridmore on Mon May 07, 2007 at 10:20:38 PM EST

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

new york's primaries are a mess. they used to be in june. we're trying like hell to move them back there.


it's time: the albany project
by lipris on Tue May 08, 2007 at 12:06:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

I'm in favor of having the '08 primaries next week.

Then we can have the primary elections for 2012 on 17Dec08 and just get it over with. So the election can be certified and the machines don't have to go back into storage.

This eternal campaign, and the posturing instead of governing, is not what people care about.


by ddrich on Mon May 07, 2007 at 10:59:19 PM EST

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Most everywhere the primaries are earlier than September.  And most people that know much about politics will tell you that most US Congress members stay in non-stop campaign mode.  The short 2 year terms were originally meant to keep them very responsive to their local electorates, which is a good thing.  The result is that they are almost always focusing on looking good for the next election.


by Mike Pridmore on Wed May 09, 2007 at 09:41:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2008 Netroots Candidates and Opportunism (none / 0)

Except, get this Massa was a Republican before as well.  Massa tried to challenge Barend in '04, but wait, he couldn't because he wasn't registered!  

Again, there still has been official word from Louise that she is indeed supportting EITHER candidate!

Also, I was recently present at a local Dem committee meeting that REFUSED to extend an invitation to meet with either candidate because it was perceived that there was no time.  Democracy?  What democracy?


Mark
by Mark J. Bowers on Thu May 10, 2007 at 12:21:34 PM EST


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