This is Nate Willems. I was a regional director for Howard Dean's Iowa campaign and am finishing law school at the University of Iowa.
Senator Joe Biden spoke to over 100 Linn County Democrats tonight at The Longbranch Hotel and Convention Center in Marion. This was billed as a town hall meeting on Iraq, and did not disappoint. Senator Biden spoke about Iraq for a solid hour, and took questions for an additional hour, to a crowd of caucus-goers who were hanging on every word.
Biden posed and answered the question, "Then What?" How can the United States disentangle itself from Iraq without leaving total chaos? You can read the online version of his plan at www.planforiraq.com. Suffice to say, he sees no possibility of a multi-ethnic, democratic Iraq with a centralized government in our lifetime. He sees the path that lead to the Dayton Accords - ending the fighting in Bosnia - as a model. He makes the case that the "next president will have no margin for error" and must be "smarter than the advisors."
Perhaps the biggest problem with Senator Biden's candidacy is that I can't convey how impressive he was tonight, only the 100+ folks in the room fully experienced it. Obviously, he is not one of the Big Three in the race. His crowds are smaller, and I am sure that many of the hard-core activists who attended wonder whether caucusing for Biden would be a waste. If he did 100 events like tonight, he would speak to 10,000 Iowa Democrats, less than 10% of the number who will caucus.
For those who do see him in person, though, they will be better off for the experience. He makes an extraordinarily compelling case that he has the best plan for Iraq, the most thoroughly thought out plan for Iraq, and he alone may be able to successfully execute a plan for Iraq.
Senator Biden was candid with the fact that he does not envision the United States pulling out all of our troops from Iraq. He told us that we were Iowa Democratic activists, notoriously dovish, and that he would not pander to the crowd. However, with the thorough nature of his speech, the obvious depth of understanding he displayed, and the passion that he showed, I think that he has the ability to re-shape the attitudes on Iraq of activists who hear him speak. Put another way, he may be able to convince anti-war Democrats who don't think they agree with him, that they themselves are wrong.
Biden has shown at least a little movement in Iowa recently. David Yepsen's column on Thursday notes that while Obama has picked up a few points, Clinton and Edwards have lost a few points from March to April. Right now, Biden's campaign strategy need be no more complicated than getting in front of as many Democrats in Iowa and New Hampshire as possible and talking about Iraq. If he has 6% in Iowa, he has the ability to get into double digits in the near future and add a new dimension into this race.
The biggest implication may be for Obama. If, 100 Democrats at a time, people come away from seeing Biden thinking, "Wow. He was impressive, but it just does not seem that he can win the nomination." Their next thought may very well be, "I wonder if the candidate I was leaning towards supporting (Clinton/Edwards/Obama) could do that." And that is where I think that folks leaning towards Obama may run into a quandary. Also, Democrats who are attracted to Obama in the same way that Democrats were attracted to Robert Kennedy, are also impressed by intellect; they also have a hunger for "the smartest candidate."
It just seems as though Biden can raise the bar for the frontrunners. He reminds Iowa Caucus-goers that they can and should demand more from a presidential candidate than a packed gymnasium and a stump speech. From what I have seen thus far, the Clinton and Edwards campaigns seem a bit better prepared to show the type of depth and gravitas that Biden displayed tonight. Even if Senator Biden does not make the Iowa Caucuses a truly competitive four-way race, he can impact Iowa Democrats' individual decision-making processes, and thereby, influence the outcome.
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