The last few weeks have left me with a growing sense of unease about out 2008 Senate prospects. On paper, our prospects look great. With the image of the national Republican Party still in the toilet, and with it sinking deeper every month that they continue to cling to the anchor that is open-ended war in Iraq, the national mood starts out decidedly in our advantage. Further, with twenty-one potential Republican targets, only twelve defenses of our own, and a large and still increasing fundraising advantage, Republican defenses are stretched thin from the get-go. Given the national mood and the structural problems Republicans face, if all goes well, this situation should allow us to pickup between four and seven seats next year, thus returning the Senate to its pre-1994 Democratic majority. In fact, such a majority would be an improvement on the pre-1994 era, since it would be a sizable Democratic majority built without the aide of ultra-conservative Dixiecrats. Even Mark Pryor is an improvement on the old Democratic southern guard. This is a huge, huge opportunity to build a functioning, reasonably progressive Democratic trifecta in Washington D.C. Opportunities like this don't come around very often, and we need to seize the day.
However, right now this situation does not seem to be translating into many good pickup opportunities. Off hand, the problem seems to center around recruitment problems. In some states, we are failing to get our top recruits. In other states, our top recruits now seem less promising than they did just a couple months ago. Worst of all, in most states, we don't have any challengers yet. Here is a quick look at some of our top pickup opportunities:
- Colorado. This is clearly our best pickup opportunity in 2008, and I still think the seat is beyond "toss-up" and has become, instead, "lean Democratic." However, Mark Udall's recent votes against a fully funded withdrawal, and then in favor of a four-month blank check, isn't exactly making me feel very excited about our great chances here.
- Maine. A lot of us were optimistic about challenging Susan Collins, including me, especially with top-tier recruit Rep. Tom Allen in the race. However, the first poll on the campaign shows the difficulty of anyone challenging a Senator with an approval rating over 65%, and net favorables in excess of 40%. According to Critical Insights, Collins currently leads Allen 57-30. Collins is well over 50%, and the 27% point gap can't be explained away simply on name ID, since Allen has represented half of Maine for years. This might be much more of a longshot than I had originally anticipated.
- Minnesota. Al Franken's entry into the race, along with his strong fundraising, appears to have scared off other Democrats from challenging highly vulnerable Republican incumbent Norm Coleman. However, as much as many of us might like Al, there are reasons to be worried about this. Polling has consistently shown Coleman hovering either just above or just below 50%. At the same time, it has also shown a fairly name recognition for Al Franken, who trails Coleman by 10-20%, depending on the poll. More worrisome are Franken's favorable numbers, which are actually slightly negative according to both Rasmussen and the Mason-Dixon. That is not a formula for making up ground on a right-wing Senator in a bluish state would is very beatable. If Franken's favorables remain in negative territory, there is no way he can win this race.
- New Hampshire. The situation in New Hampshire isn't all that bad. In fact, considering recent recruiting problems in Oregon, this is now probably our second best pickup opportunity. However, it is wide open, which means it is far from certain to be a Democratic pickup. The two announced Democratic candidates are LieberDem Katrina Swett and Portsmouth mayor Steve Marchand. I have no idea who has the inside track in the primary, or even if Jean Sheehan will enter the campaign. However, I do know that Sheehan already leads Republican incumbent Sununu in the polls, and Marchand would thus probably have a more difficult time than Sheehan. Then again, considering Sheehan's 2002 loss, and the great people-powered victories in New Hampshire in 2006, maybe Marchand would actually have a better chance. If Swett wins the nomination, the gag suppressant industry in New Hampshire might start booming in the fall of 2008.
- Oregon. If Rep. DeFazio had chosen to run, Oregon would have immediately joined Colorado as a "lean Democratic" pickup opportunity. However, in the worst recruiting defeat for Senate Democrats in years, he passed on the campaign. Not long after that, Rep. Blumenauer also passed. Now, our chances to defeat Gordon Smith, which were already complicated by Smith's defection on Iraq, appear to rest with Steve Novick. While Novick appears to be quite brilliant and a dedicated progressive activist in the Wellstone mold, he faces a far more uphill battle than either DeFazio or Blumenauer would have faced. In short, instead of this seat being lean Democratic, right now it is, at best, lean Republican. A Novick win is possible, and would be fantastic, but I am quite nervous about this seat right now. It should have been fairly easy.
- The rest. In every other state that can be clearly identified as a pickup opportunity, we simply don't have a Democratic candidate yet. Solid pickup opportunities such as New Mexico, North Carolina, Texas, and Virginia lack candidates. Somewhat more difficult opportunities like Alabama, Georgia, Kentucky, Nebraska and Oklahoma also lack candidates. We even lack potential candidates who are just considering a run in states like Alaska, Kansas, Mississippi, Tennessee and Wyoming. We do have a challenger in Idaho, but that feels like small comfort considering our holes.
I know that we are still seventeen months and one week away from the 2008 election, but at this point in the 2006 cycle, we already had multiple challengers in Rhode Island, Pennsylvania, and Montana, not to mention states like Arizona and Tennessee that helped stretch the playing field. By way of contrast, so far in 2008 we have seen our chances in Maine, Minnesota and Oregon all receive justifiable downgrades. Basically, everywhere outside of Colorado and New Hampshire, where we might develop LieberDem problems, it feels like we are spinning our wheels. While the situation could be reversed with improvements just two or three major Senate campaigns, the way things have been going so far, further downgrades seem more likely than further upgrades. We need to start getting our best candidates in every state, or else we could waste this historic electoral opportunity.
For more information on the 2008 Senate picture, make sure to visit
Senate 2008 guru on a regular basis. I don't plan to have a regular forecast for at lest another few months.
