Iowa, the state which decided it all back in 2004, is getting really, really interesting right now. With four polls conducted in Heaven in the last week, trends completely different from the national picture are emerging:
Democratic Iowa Polling, 5/12-5/20
| Poll |
Edwards |
Obama |
Clinton |
Richardson |
| Strategic Vision |
29 |
24 |
16 |
9 |
| Research 2000 |
26 |
22 |
28 |
7 |
| DM Register |
29 |
23 |
21 |
10 |
| Zogby |
26 |
22 |
24 |
6 |
| Mean |
27.50 |
22.75 |
22.25 |
8.00 |
This is as tight as a glove. Any of the three top candidates could win if the caucus was held tomorrow, depending on where their support is and who leads in the second place choices.
The Des Moines Register poll indicated that Obama narrowly led that category, with 25% (Edwards was the second choice of 22%, and Clinton 19%). Also, Richardson is clearly becoming a player in Iowa now, too. While there is no clear indication from whom he is drawing support, he clearly is gaining. Further, the trends on Clinton and Edwards
are extremely difficult to track, while it seems that Obama and Richardson are both moving slowly upward. Yet further, I don't know why Richardson, Edwards and Obama have consistent numbers, while Clinton's numbers fit a wide range.
Nationally, given that
YouGov recently demonstrated a disproportionately high number of basically undecided leaners are currently in Clinton's camp, if the Iowa caucuses were held tomorrow, right now I actually believe that Obama is close enough to catch Clinton nationally if she were to finish third in the caucuses. Note that I don't think he is currently close enough to take the national lead in that scenario, just that I think he is close enough to tie her. It is hard to imagine almost any of those leaners sticking with her after a third place finish. Given this, assuming New Hampshire is the next state after Iowa, almost everything would then rest on the outcome in the Granite State,
where Clinton currently holds a sizable, 13-14 point advantage. In other words, Clinton is still the favorite,
but only as long as she maintains her lead in New Hampshire. If that changes, so will her status as frontrunner.
Republican Iowa Polling, 5/12-5/20
| Poll |
Romney |
McCain |
Giuliani |
Thompson |
| Strategic Vision |
20 |
16 |
18 |
10 |
| Research 2000 |
16 |
18 |
17 |
9 |
| DM Register |
30 |
18 |
17 |
7* |
| Zogby |
19 |
18 |
18 |
9 |
| Mean |
21.25 |
17.50 |
17.50 |
8.25 |
* = Tommy Thompson
On the Republican side, by far the most striking features are that Romney now leads, and that no matter who is included in a poll, and no matter who conducts a poll, both Giuliani and McCain are stuck in an extremely narrow range of 16-18%. Thus, Romney's lead is probably based on a large Anybody But McCain and Giuliani sentiment among Republican Iowa caucus goers. Notice, for example, that his lead is largest when both Fred Thompson and Newt Gingrich and not included in the poll. This seems to signal an extremely fluid race where Fred Thompson can make a huge impact. However, if Fred Thompson decides not to run, given Romney's big bucks, insider love,
corresponding lead in New Hampshire, the Republican nomination might be his to lose.
The Iowa caucuses might be a weird and barely democratic way to choose a president, but right now it is the most interesting aspect of the 2008 horserace, bar none.
