Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness

In my last Diary entitled The Dangers of Groupthink and Political Correctness, I tried to create a framework for thinking about how voters make decisions.  My central premise was that there is a disconnect between netroots activists and the general voting population.  The netroots have a strong tendency to evaluate candidates based on policy, while the general population is more concerned with "brand."  I suggested that because of this disconnect, the candidate with the most progressive policy proposals may not in fact be the strongest candidate or the best person to advance the progressive movement.

Today, I would like to apply this framework more specifically to the debate about whether Obama or Edwards is the most progressive candidate in the Democratic field.  Many Edwards' supporters will probably dispute whether or not there is even a debate.  They strongly believe that Edwards is more progressive; they point to Edwards support for cutting of funds for Iraq, his detailed health care proposal, and his refusal to acknowledge the GWOT, as examples of his more progressive stands.  OTOH, Obama's supporters point to his more liberal voting record in the Senate and to his opposition to the Iraq war from the very beginning.

As I have expressed in comments in other threads, I don't think this is a slam-dunk in either direction.  I think supporters on both sides can make a strong, coherent argument.
My own take is greatly informed by my experiences as an activist.  I have worked as a lobbyist for progressive causes in three states:  New York, Washington State, and Oregon.  I have been a community organizer, a legislative staffer, and the Executive Director of a statewide coalition working on health care issues.  

ACCOMPLISHMENTS NOT PROPOSALS

As a way of illustrating my take on the Edwards vs. Obama debate, I would like to relate a brief tale from my experience in this last role as Executive Director of the Oregon Health Action Campaign (OHAC).  In the mid `80s, OHAC put together a legislative proposal for a Canadian style single-payer health care system for the State of Oregon.  It was a great plan, and filled with youthful idealism, I set about trying to build support.  I quickly got a lesson in the combined power of the business lobby, the health care providers, and the insurance industry.  In spite of solid Democratic majorities in both Houses of the State Legislature, a friendly Committee Chair, and substantial grassroots support, we got crushed.  We finally managed to move it out of the substantive Committee, but we could not even get a hearing in the Ways and Means Committee.

What does this have to do with Obama and Edwards?  My point is that the progressiveness of the candidates should not be measured by what they propose; it should be evaluated by what they can accomplish.  This is hard to do.  Policy proposals can be evaluated and measured; future accomplishments are necessarily based on speculation.

I would argue that much of the difference between Obama and Edwards is based on positioning and style rather than a significant difference in core values:

POSITIONING

Obama and Edwards face different challenges in their efforts to win the nomination.  Edwards has known since 2004, that he was going to face HRC.  He knew that she would have the support of most of the Dem establishment and the support of the DLC.  He also knew that she would be able to raise more money.  HRC was without a doubt going to be the 800 lb gorilla of this election cycle.  If you are facing an opponent who has greater resources, you have to differentiate yourself in personality and message if you are going to have a chance.  Edwards has been preparing for an "insurgent" style campaign for the last three years.  This forced him to the left.  Obama's entry into the race certainly complicated Edwards' task, but it only increased the pressure on him to speak out in order to differentiate himself.  The truth of this statement does not mean that Edwards' positioning is not heartfelt.  There are many indications that JE is sincere.  My point is that necessity has forced him to articulate his more progressive positions.

Obama has faced an entirely different challenge.  His biggest hurdles are his limited experience on the national stage and the very real race barrier he is trying to break.  I would argue that the race barrier is not an issue of whether most Dems are personally willing to vote for an African American candidate, because I believe the vast majority are willing to do so.  I believe the barrier is one of perception; many Dems may hesitate to vote for Obama because they perceive his race as an issue of "electability".   Many may hesitate to vote for him because they fear he can't win in the fall.  Ironically polls show that the group most inclined to feel this way are African Americans.  The pervasive and lingering effects of racism have left them with little confidence in the willingness of whites to vote for an African American candidate.   This skepticism and lingering racial stereotypes, make Obama particularly vulnerable to attacks that he is outside the mainstream.  I believe that both the race barrier and the inexperience factor force Obama to position himself more to the center than his own personal ideology would otherwise.

To summarize, the dictates of the three-way race have forced Edwards farther to the left and Obama more to the center, making it appear that there is a larger ideological gap than there is in reality.

STYLE

Edwards has built on the foundation of his Two Americas stump speech and evolved into more of an openly populist fighter.  Obama has chosen to emphasize his skills as someone who can find common ground.  These stylistic differences are really more about process than about policy.  Edwards believes that we must mobilize the Dem base to reverse the excesses of the Bush Administration and the Republican Congress.  This fits the style of the netroots, which evolved in response these excesses and the timidity of the Dems in opposing the rising right-wing tide.  Obama on the other hand, offers himself as something different, a progressive who can frame progressive policies and values in ways that will make them accessible and acceptable to many in the mushy-middle.  Some have argued that Obama may be a sort of Democratic version of Ronald Reagan; I find that the analogy makes me a bit queasy, but I see the point.  Reagan with his charm and charisma was able to sell conservative values to many who were not self-identified conservatives.  Obama may be able to do the same with voters who are not self-identified liberals.

CONCLUSION

Again, I don't think there is a slam-dunk case on either side of this debate.  I encourage Edwards' supporters to use great caution to not confuse policy with accomplishments.  Anyone can propose a laundry list of progressive policies.  The acid test is who can advance the progressive cause.  Who can persuade more voters to come to our side?  Who can help elect more Dems?  Who can most effectively change the debate, and who can actually pass progressive legislation through a process that emphasizes checks and balances.

Let's have a respectful debate, with as little trash talking and cheap shots as possible.  I believe we have a common goal. I believe that the vast majority of Obama and Edwards supporters would prefer either of these two to HRC.  Let's discuss electability and who would be more successful in advancing progressive policies and building the progressive movement.



Display:


Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

"I believe that the vast majority of Obama and Edwards supporters would prefer either of these two to HRC."

Well, you "believe" wrong.  There is a ton of poll evidence all pointing out that in the case of Obama supporters a very strong majority would support Clinton (say, if Obama decided to drop out) over Edwards.   In the case of Edwards supporters, it is not quite as strong a majority as with Obama supporters, but still a plurality that backs Clinton over Obama.    


by georgep on Wed May 02, 2007 at 02:21:05 PM EST

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

george, can you provide a link?

You may or may not be right about the general public, my comment was about those who post here.


by upper left on Wed May 02, 2007 at 02:30:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

I see.  You did not specify netroots supporters, which prompted my correction.   Second/first choice mentions have been discussed here many times, but later on I'll get some polls that show the individual "slices of the pie" for the general population.  


by georgep on Wed May 02, 2007 at 02:51:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

I don't confuse policy with accomplishments. I'm interested in economic ideology. Where do they sit on the spectrum. What do they is the appropriate role of government in society?

Do they think there should be redistributive policies in this country given the enormous concentration of wealth at the top that has occurred over the last 27 years?


by adamterando on Wed May 02, 2007 at 02:24:31 PM EST

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

I agree that is aprofoundly important issue, but the question remains who can actually pass the kind of policies you desire.  I would suggest that it will take substantial Dem majorities in both the House and Senate to pass significant tax increases.  The repubs will almost surely philibuster, so it will matter who can build support in the general public and who will have the longest coattails.


by upper left on Wed May 02, 2007 at 02:33:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (3.00 / 1)

For some things yes, for others no.

For the budget you only need 51 senators if memory serves.

Also, if we're going down that route. Edwards has framed his UHC proposal in such a way that it makes it palatable to republicans in terms of framing it as "choice". He used their frame to sell his plan which is as close to single-payer we're likely to get without 62 Dem senators.


by adamterando on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:00:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

I also think Edwards would have the longest coattails because I think he could bring in disaffected blue collar voters that have been voting republican for 27 years.


by adamterando on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:01:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

Your comment about the white working class, seems like Edwards' strongest electability argument.  OTOH, Obama by vitue of his ethnicity, message, and charisma, may be able to bring millions of young and minority voters to the table.  I would love to see a smart pollster and/or demographer analyze this issue.  It would be very interesting.


by upper left on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:29:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

That doesn't expand the Democratic base so much. Those people are already voting democratic. Now turnout-wise that might be a good thing for electing Democrats. It also might bring Florida back into the fold.

I think Edwards will have that ability as well once his message gets out. And especially if Obama is his VP.

I think with Obama on top, you lose the appeal to white working class voters. And not because of race but because Obama's economic message is not that strong.

With Edwards at the top and Obama at #2, I think you get Regean democrats back and and you get the enthusiasm generated amongst young people for Obama as well. And then Obama waits his turn as VP and after 8 years he can be president.

Maybe Obama's best role would be as Edwards chief negotiater as president of the senate, no?


by adamterando on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:02:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

My comment about Obama bringing many new voters to the table is about turnout of young, minority and currently disaffected voters. Remember Obama ran a big voter reg drive in '92.  I think this would be a big priority for him.

Do you think Edwards would pick Obama?  I would think he would be under a lot of pressure to pick some one like Richardson with a lot of foreign policy cred.  I would be thrilled by an Edwards/Obama ticket.

If Obama is on top, I can's see him picking JE, I think he would be forced to pick somebody with lots of FP experience.

Don't judge Obama's ability with working class voters too quickly, and don't judge his economic message either.  I think he is still in "meet the candidate" mode.  I think he will be rolling out significantly more policy over the summer.

I am watching the polls for sign to see who can beat HRC and who is running better in the racehorse polls with the Repubs.  I am also watching for clues as to whether or not Obama is going to be overtaken by establishment type advisors.  I am doing some fundraising work for Obama now, but won't make-up my mind until the late fall.

I am enjoying the conversation, but am a bit disappointed with the response this Diary is getting.  Seems like the sensationalist Diaries get a lot more play than something analytical like I tried here.


by upper left on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:38:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (3.00 / 0)

"Remember Obama ran a big voter reg drive in '92.  I think this would be a big priority for him."

I don't think Edwards wouldn't make this a priority.  Especially if Obama was VP!

I don't think Edwards would pick Richardson as his VP because I think Richardson is tanking fast (establishment-wise and progressive-wise). People are realizing that he's running solely on his resume and it's quite annoying. I also don't get the impression that Edwards and Richardson's personalities mesh too well.

I'm judging Obama's economic message based on the feelers he's sent out about his UHC proposal, his tepidness about recognizing the importance of organized labor (that's a big big one for me), and his tepidness about the potential worth of expanding revenues through a more progressive income tax.

Don't worry about the conversation. People are too worried about their silly little myspace wars.


by adamterando on Wed May 02, 2007 at 04:51:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

I'm curious, are you a labor activist or full-time union person?  What part of the country do you live in.

"People are too worried about their silly little myspace wars."

Thanks for the smile.  I am a newbie around here.  This sight strikes me as a weird place.  On one hand there are a lot of smart people with a lot of progressive energy.  OTOH, this place sort of reminds me of high school, lots of little cliques and lots of drama over stuff that doesn't seem very important. It's a strange combination.


by upper left on Wed May 02, 2007 at 05:31:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

It's the connections to neoliberals like the Robert Rubin and the gang, that turn me off Obama.  

I'm with adamterando on this, Obama isn't supportive of labor.  He shouldn't expect the support of labor as a result.


by ManfromMiddletown on Wed May 02, 2007 at 07:48:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

"Obama isn't supportive of labor."

WTF? Obama has a 96% lifetime labor record according to the AFL-CIO http://www.aflcio.org/cgi-bin/member.pl? state=IL&pg=2&id=26&year=06& amp;congress=s

Please don't say things that aren't true.  Obama has also been heavily involved with the Walmart campaign.


by upper left on Wed May 02, 2007 at 08:31:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

Right now I'm in grad school in PA (you can click on my name if you're interested). I'm not a union member (the university put the kibosh on that choice). My dad was until he got promoted and my grandpa helped start a union of zinc plant workers back in the 50s. Then regretted it when they turned crooked.

My passion on this basically comes from being a student of history and geography. It doesn't take much studying to see that areas of the world with strong labor movements are generally more progressive, well-off, and healthier societies.

It also doesn't take much studying to realize that unions are an EXTREMELY effective tool at raising political consciousness in people. And this is a crucial point in countries like the US where we have weak community bonds, a dispersed population, and a horrible corporate media. When you're up against that, you need a distributed mechanism with which to organize people towards a common goal. Unions provide such a mechanism. If we're going to truly enact social change in his country (and world) we'll need strong, self-sustaining (meaning self-funding) progressive organizations that sort of "wake-up" their members and help them realize the importance of political activism by showing them an alternative world-view than the one they're getting from watching american idol.

I believe John Edwards gets this because he's the only on that vociferously addresses the issue of trade unionism in every speech he makes.

I don't hear this from HRC or Obama. They only mention unions when they're in front of union crowds.


by adamterando on Thu May 03, 2007 at 09:01:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring Progressiveness (none / 0)

Wait his turn?  Are we Republicans now?  What's with the hierarchical language that one typically sees in the GOP?  
  The groups that Barack would bring out do tend to vote Democratic, but they don't neccesarily vote in large numbers, like  white evangelicals, for example, who not only vote heavily Republican but do so in great numbers.  Traditional Democratic constiuencies didn't come out in large enough numbers to put Kerry over the top in 2004 and I am reasonably certain that HRC won't inspire enough passion for them to come out for her in 2008.  Obama could mobilize young people and minorities to come out like they never have before.
Edwards?  I like him, but I don't know if he can do it.  Besides, he throws a lot of red meat out now, but when he was in the Senate and had the ability to do things he struck me as a fairly typical, slightly conservative southern Democrat.  Which one is the real Edwards?  If we are going to talk about who is more progressive, that is a fair question.
In any case, I have my doubts about the prospects of trying to figure out which candidate the other guy will be willing to vote for.  I still haven't forgiven Iowa and New Hampshire for saddling us with Kerry because he was so "electable", and there is no evidence that Edwards has a great deal of crossover appeal either.  I think that people assume that because he is a white southern man that he will be able to bring in Reagan Democrats and other such types with his economic message.  I've seen no empircal evidence however to support this view. When it comes to the choice between economic populism from the left and cultural populism from the right,  culture issues always seem to trump economic ones.  
"In the face of impossible odds, people who love their country can change it." Barack Obama
by whitbreadale on Tue May 08, 2007 at 05:57:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama vs. Edwards: Measuring (none / 0)

Well, you can count me in the group that prefers Obama and Edwards to HRC. I simply will not vote for her.


by rikyrah on Wed May 02, 2007 at 03:33:36 PM EST


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