MyDD :: NV-02: Heller Had 12th Worst GOP Result in 2006

NV-02: Heller Had 12th Worst GOP Result in 2006

by jedinecny, Thu May 17, 2007 at 10:23:24 AM EST

Nationally, many pundits and bloggers didn't take Nevada's 2nd district too seriously in 2006. It was too safe a Republican district to be even slightly competitive, so the argument went.

Well, we all know that Dean Heller in the end won his election against Democrat Jill Derby. Against expectations though, his result wasn't very convincing. The man who was elected Secretary of State of Nevada three times, barely won more than 50% of the vote in a district that doesn't include Democratic Las Vegas. So today, I ventured out in search of Republicans who won their districts in 2006 and did worse than him. Turns out that there weren't that many.

Only 11 Republicans were elected with a worse result than Heller. Among them: Rep. Sali of Idaho, Rep. Cubin of Wyoming, Rep. Musgrave of Colorado and Rep. Doolittle of California. All these districts were presumed to be safely in Republican hands. There was no way they would become competitive and yet they were.

Again, there is talk of Heller being safe, of other Republican districts more important than Nevada's 2nd. This is reminder for all of these folks that Heller is among the vulnerable dozen Republicans currently serving in Congress:

* 50.37% Heller
* 50.24% Pryce (OH-15)
* 50.21% Wilson (NM-01)
* 50.14% Hayes (NC-08)
* 50.08% Buchanan (FL-13)
* 50.05% Bachmann (MN-06)
* 49.95% Sali (ID-01)
* 49.53% Ferguson (NJ-07)
* 49.26% Doolittle (CA-04)
* 48.46% Porter (NV-03)
* 48.33% Cubin (WY-01)
* 45.91% Musgrave (CO-04)

Results were taken from NPR.

PS: Please note that I only looked at how many people were willing to vote for the Republican, not how well the opponent did. This is not a diary on close margins. Feel free to comment on that below.

Cross posted from Helluva Heller, where Nevada bloggers have united to take down Heller in 2008.

Tags: Nevada, Dean Heller, Jill Derby, House, 2008 election, NV-02, OH-15, NM-01, NC-08, FL-13, MN-06, ID-01, NJ-07, CA-04, NV-03, WY-01, CO-04 (all tags)

Permalink :: 5 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: NV-02: Heller Had 12th Worst GOP Result in 200 (none / 0)

You can help by joining the Helluva Heller - Defeating Dean Heller in 2008 group at the Democratic Party's PartyBuilder social networking site!

Turn Tahoe Blue | Nevada Caucus 2008

by jedinecny on Thu May 17, 2007 at 10:25:38 AM EST

Re: NV-02: Heller Had 12th Worst GOP Result in 200 (none / 0)

Nice diary! I believe NV-02 can be competitive and Heller definitely deserves to go down. Who's on the radar as far as Democrats who may run?

Sarah

by Sarah R Carter on Thu May 17, 2007 at 02:27:13 PM EST

Re: NV-02: Heller Had 12th Worst GOP Result in 200 (none / 0)

At Helluva Heller we thought about possible candidates and have done a poll with a few names in which 40 people voted.

Since Derby hasn't officially announced her intentions either way, we included her in the poll:

http://helluvaheller.blogspot.com/2007/0 5/cd2-2008-democratic-candidate-poll.htm l

Here are the results:

28% for Jill Derby
23% for Assembly Member Sheila Leslie (Reno)
20% for Assembly Member Debbie Smith (Sparks)
15% for State Treasurer Kate Marshall (Reno)

Others included in the poll were freshman Assembly Member David Bobzien (Reno - 5%), Washoe County (Reno and Sparks) party chair and environmental litigation lawyer Chris Wicker (3%) and former Miss Nevada and 2nd Vice Chair of NV Dems Teresa Benitez Thompson (8%).

It's still unknown who will run but my bet is that either Leslie, Smith or Marshall will eventually run. As of now it's all speculation.

I did notice however, that Sheila Leslie will join Democrats Work on Saturday in Reno.

Turn Tahoe Blue | Nevada Caucus 2008

by jedinecny on Thu May 17, 2007 at 02:56:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't kid yourself (none / 0)

I would make Heller a 1/20 favorite in 2008. And that's being gentle. If we prioritize that district we're nuts.

You couldn't find a more favorable situation than 2006 and Heller still won semi-comfortably in an open race. The GOP had a muddled 3-way primary with Heller barely surviving. A post-primary controversy delayed his campaign. Meanwhile, Jill Derby was our strongest conceivable candidate and got a big head start on Heller. I heard her radio commercials for months.

Rural Nevada is trending even more red and they turn out in big numbers. It's true we are gaining in Reno but that applies more to statewide and presidential races, not NV-2. Heller will gain traction in that district and he is a perfect fit for NV-2, as a moderate Republican who looks the part and smiles plenty. I expect Heller to be senator and/or governor some day.

Let's focus on NV-3. This state is simple to handicap. We can win statewide if Las Vegas comes around and the Hispanic population becomes a factor at the polls, but NV-2 is severely titled to the GOP. It will be interesting how NV-4 is drawn, early next decade. Once that happens we'll see if the boundaries of the other districts are changed and the likely impact.

by Gary Kilbride on Thu May 17, 2007 at 05:36:37 PM EST

Re: Don't kid yourself (none / 0)

You may be right that NV-3 is more competitive than NV-2, but I think we can target both. Reno (and the rest of Washoe County) certainly plays a big role in NV-2, and I think it could play an even bigger role in the future. You're right that a lot of it comes down to (and will continue to come down to) turning out people to vote. You're also right that so far, folks in the rurals have been much more reliable in that respect (and much more reliably Republican). A lot of the race dynamics for NV-02 will come down to who the Democrats get to run.

I really look forward to seeing NV-04 (and maybe NV-05?) in a few years. It'll be really interesting to see how it's drawn.

Sarah

by Sarah R Carter on Thu May 17, 2007 at 05:53:34 PM EST
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