May Straw Poll Results

MyDD May Reader Straw Poll (5/15, 1,668 votes)
Candidate 1st Choice 2nd Choice 3rd Choice 4th Choice Last Choice
Edwards 41.2% 24.0% 13.3% 7.5% 2.1%
Obama 31.2% 24.8% 16.2% 8.5% 2.5%
Richardson 10.1% 16.4% 23.1% 16.2% 1.4%
Clinton 4.7% 9.2% 13.8% 16.3% 9.8%
Dodd 1.9% 4.6% 8.7% 14.0% 1.1%
Biden 0.8% 3.2% 5.5% 8.7% 8.0%
Gravel 1.3% 3.8% 4.3% 5.9% 13.1%
Kucinich 1.5% 3.0% 4.6% 4.7% 16.8%
Other 5.6% 6.5% 6.1% 6.1% --
Unsure 1.5% 4.3% 4.3% 11.9% 45.1%

Note that the candidates are not ranked according to their first place votes. Instead, they are ranked according to the depth of their support across the entire ballot. The deeper one goes into the ballots, it becomes much clearer, for example, that Chris Dodd is thought of much better than Biden, Gravel and Kucinich. Also, the last place votes have been changed, in that every ballot that did not rank the eight candidates is now considered to be an "unsure" vote for last place. Overall, this change and the new information presented gives us a much clearer picture of the depth of support each candidate has on MyDD. Here is a sort of "acceptability" ranking, where the last place votes for every candidate are subtracted from their combined first, second, third and fourth place votes:

Edwards: 84.0%
Obama: 78.3%
Richardson: 64.6%
Clinton: 34.1%
Dodd: 28.1%
Other: 24.3%
Biden: 10.2%
Gravel: 2.3%
Kucinich: -2.9%

Note the gaps between Obama and Richardson, Richardson and Clinton, and Other and Biden. It suggests a four-tiers of candidate support on MyDD: the first tier includes Edwards and Obama; the second tier is Richardson; the third tier is Clinton, Dodd and "Other"; the fourth tier is Biden, Gravel and Kucinich. It is particularly interesting how Richardson is widely viewed as an acceptable candidate, but has relatively few commenters and diarists directly promoting him.

Anyway, as always, I did my best to remove stuffed results. You can see past MyDD straw poll results here .The field gained slightly on Edwards and Obama from April. Also, you can view the raw data for the poll here. The password is emdy1bxf.



Display:


Interesting (3.00 / 1)

Thanks, Chris.  Congratulations on getting your mayor elected!

I am an Obama-Edwards guy but Christopher Dodd is a pleasant surprise.  The more I hear about him, the better I like him.


by Hellmut on Wed May 16, 2007 at 06:37:49 PM EST

Re: Interesting (3.00 / 1)

If I had a dollar for everytime ...

I work for his campaign, so that's music to my ears.  I'll make sure to do a better job of making sure you and everyone else keep hearing more and more about him.

Tim


by Tim Tagaris on Wed May 16, 2007 at 06:46:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Interesting (none / 0)

Is Lamont involved in his campaign at all?  I really liked Dodd's ad for Reid-Feingold.  It made me think of Lamont who stood up for what was right.  I would like to see Dodd doing that more.


I am an Edwards Democrat. Visit EENR blog for Progressives
by pioneer111 on Wed May 16, 2007 at 06:49:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Interesting (none / 0)

Ned endorsed senator dodd.

Tim


by Tim Tagaris on Wed May 16, 2007 at 08:41:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Interesting (none / 0)

I'm also an Edwards supporter who moved Dodd up into 2nd place for that very same reason--Lamont endorsed him.


by Baltimore on Thu May 17, 2007 at 11:55:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Interesting (none / 0)

I like Dodd, too. I saw him briefly when he came to St. Louis in the fall for the "Judgement at Nuremberg" Conference.


Join us at Show Me Progress!
by clarkent on Wed May 16, 2007 at 07:14:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Interesting (none / 0)

He speaks about "the rule of law" all the time.  Good write-up over at Blue Hampshire of a speech from a few days ago.

Tim


by Tim Tagaris on Wed May 16, 2007 at 08:43:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Interesting (none / 0)

I've seen that, and that's one of the reasons I like him. I've also seen him work the crowd in New Hampshire (on CSPAN, not in person) and he comes across well.

I'm a really strong Edwards supporter, but if Edwards dropped out for some reason, I might consider Dodd.


Join us at Show Me Progress!
by clarkent on Wed May 16, 2007 at 09:08:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Interesting (none / 0)

Yeah I think Dodd has become my #3 right now after Obama, then Edwards.  #4 is Gravel, #5 is Clinton, #6 Richardson


by yitbos96bb on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:14:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May Straw Poll Results (none / 0)

Poor Kucinich - you would think such a far left candidate would garner more support from a progressive group like this one. Not BIG support, but some support, and certainly not negative acceptability.

Also, I would love to hear form anyone who chose Obama or Edwards for last choice.


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Wed May 16, 2007 at 06:40:05 PM EST

Re: May Straw Poll Results (none / 0)

I have a feeling a lot of the lack of support for Kucinich on MyDD is either he comes off a bit crazy angry... not passionate angry the way Howard Dean did or more likely, most don't think he has a chance at all, so no support.


by yitbos96bb on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:16:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

"ugh" on Kucinich by kos (none / 0)

Here's why many progressives probably don't think too highly of Kucinich: http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/2 /23/113236/176


by End game on Thu May 17, 2007 at 08:30:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "ugh" on Kucinich by kos (none / 0)

To clarify: I think he's a fine Congressman (though I haven't looked too closely), but he's not my idea of presidential material.


by End game on Thu May 17, 2007 at 08:33:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May Straw Poll Results (3.00 / 2)

good job on these straw polls, very interesting, I have to admire the (unpaid) Hillary supporters for posting here and on DailyKos considering they have about the same % of the netroots vote as Bush's approval rating among black New Orleans residents.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Wed May 16, 2007 at 06:44:09 PM EST

Re: May Straw Poll Results (3.00 / 3)

Well I am so surprised to see Richardson do so well here as compared to Hillary.  He is so much more smarmy than Hillary.  She is clear on her positions and he fluctuates depending on the audience.  

I support Edwards but I do think Hillary is waaaay better than Richardson.


I am an Edwards Democrat. Visit EENR blog for Progressives
by pioneer111 on Wed May 16, 2007 at 06:51:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May Straw Poll Results (none / 0)

I recently started to agree. Richardson does not appeal to me any longer - though I did rank HRC below him (more out of anger than rational thinking).

It's his tax stance that really irks me.


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Wed May 16, 2007 at 06:56:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May Straw Poll Results (3.00 / 1)

atleast Richardson would have some ability to bring new voters into the fold Hillary would unite Republicans in a way no one else would, rudy is using the prospect of Hillary to scare republicans into abandoning social issues to support him as to stop Hillary.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Wed May 16, 2007 at 07:04:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May Straw Poll Results (none / 0)

do you EVER stop spouting this pablum?  you have absolutely ZERO evidence of all these phantom Republicans coming out.  Perhaps not repeating talking points and letting the GOP choose YOUR candidates for you?  try that for once.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Wed May 16, 2007 at 07:36:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May Straw Poll Results (3.00 / 1)

I think it is just common sense that Republicans (and many others) deeply despise HRC for reasons real and imagined. The numbers support this.

There are a lot on the soft right that might warm up to a Richardson, or even an Obama, but they won't even give HRC a chance. Conservatives will feel a duty to stop Hillary, and I don't think it's far-fetched to assume a anti-HRC vote will materialize (though we can debate its impact). This is especially true when nothing positive is going to bring them to the polls (like a candidate that is actually a conservative).

Besides, Bush-Clinton-Bush-Clinton is simply too much for me to stand. That's the kind of pattern that looks like the end of a democracy.


www.thingsyoungerthanmccain.com
by LandStander on Wed May 16, 2007 at 07:45:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May Straw Poll Results (none / 0)

won't go as far as you did in the last sentance but many people don't like that idea either.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Wed May 16, 2007 at 08:06:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May Straw Poll Results (none / 0)

jgarcia,
LMAO, between this and the visual you created of Nancy Reagan at the reins in a horse drawn carriage taking Ronnie's coffin around the country, too funny.
by Kingstongirl on Wed May 16, 2007 at 09:39:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May Straw Poll Results (3.00 / 1)

Richardson is farther to the right than Hillary is on Domestic issues.  I can't support him.


by yitbos96bb on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:17:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I challenge that (none / 0)

how about mentioning a couple of those issues and the positions of Hillary vs Richardson?

And yes I know that Richardson says some dumb things about taxes.


Start Running Better Polls
by bolson on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:27:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Richardson- (none / 0)

Education- supports expanding charter schools and, until he ran for governor, supported vouchers.

Government- small, limited, bad.

Trade- Free.

Immigration- harsh on illegals, but guest worker program for economic exploitation.

Justice- harsher punishment, restricting habeas, record strongly supporting the death penalty.

That's off the top of my head.


"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR
by jallen on Thu May 17, 2007 at 06:34:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Richardson- (none / 0)

You forgot that he picked an anti-choice justice as his ideal Supreme Court nominee in the debate.  That's enough to get him off my radar right there.  Just like the Republicans won't nominate a pro-choice nominee, I won't be part of a "progressive" party that nominates an anti-choice nominee.


by Conquest on Thu May 17, 2007 at 09:54:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May Straw Poll Results (none / 0)

Absolutely agree on this. Richardson is one of those moderate Republicans you barely ever see anymore. The ultimate candidate for the DLC/Third Way nexus.


Visit Forgotten Countries, my new foreign policy-based blog
by Englishlefty on Wed May 16, 2007 at 08:18:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I don't really agree (none / 0)

Upfront, I'm an Edwards - Obama supporter and I really don't like Clinton.

Look, none of the dems are raving socialists. So it is hard to say which ones are more big business than the others. For my money, Edwards talks the populist line with most clarity, and Clinton strikes me as the most establishment. Richardson in my mind (I don't have the evidence) is a bit less corporate than Clinton.

Richardson has a couple other features that are intriguing:
 - International experience... Real credentials for dealing with the world.
 - Speaks Spanish natively... multilateral re-opening to Latin America?
 - Governor experience is more useful for a presidential campaign than Senatorial experience.


There's more of us than there is of them.
by MetaData on Wed May 16, 2007 at 11:06:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't really agree (none / 0)

If you look up, you'll see the evidence does not agree with your mind. He's every bit as corporatist, a Democrat in the Max Baucus mold.

Moreover his three advantages are pretty unimpressive to me. Yes, he's a good diplomat, but that doesn't mean he'll be a good global strategist. Indeed, his idea for Iraq (not the withdrawal - the idea of making its neighbours send their troops there) shows an overreliance on pony plans.

Speaking Spanish fluently may make Latin American leaders feel moderately more welcomed, but I honestly don't think the use of an interpreter will torpedo diplomatic efforts of any president in Latin America.

And the governor argument is just absurd. The reason that Kennedy was the last senator elected to the presidency is that Goldwater, McGovern, Mondale and Dole were nigh-on unelectable and Kerry lost narrowly. Being a governor doesn't stop you from losing by a substantial margin (see Dukakis).


Visit Forgotten Countries, my new foreign policy-based blog
by Englishlefty on Fri May 18, 2007 at 09:22:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Richardson much better than Hillary (none / 0)

Richardson is my favorite right now, and Hillary my anti-favorite. And it's entirely about who I think they are and the policies and rhetoric they spout.

I grew up in New Mexico and I think Richardson has a long and decent record.

Unlike the DLC and Hillary, he's for getting totally out of Iraq.

I admit his weakness is his tax rhetoric. All the candidates have their flaws and that's his.

1. Richardson, 2. Edwards, 3. Obama. (and sometimes 0. Kucinich)


Start Running Better Polls
by bolson on Wed May 16, 2007 at 09:40:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

ok about half the country says they won't consider (3.00 / 1)

voting for Hillary any questions?


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Wed May 16, 2007 at 07:39:10 PM EST

Given a likely margin of error of about 5%... (none / 0)

...Hillary's support on MyDD might in fact be 0%.


John Edwards 2008
by MeanBoneII on Wed May 16, 2007 at 09:13:16 PM EST

Re: Given a likely margin of error of about 5%... (none / 0)

Well we know of at least two... GeorgeP and Robliberal.


by yitbos96bb on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:18:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Given a likely margin of error of about 5%... (3.00 / 1)

Make that 3.


by Kingstongirl on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:25:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Given a likely margin of error of about 5%... (none / 0)

And I might be a fourth.  Currently for Edwards, but am really tired of the savagery in which HRC is attacked.  Especially when it's when using standard-issued Republican talking points.


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:29:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Given a likely margin of error of about 5%... (3.00 / 1)

I agree with jgarcia here. I don't really have much enthusiasm for a Hillary Clinton presidency, but the viciousness of some of the attacks bothers me, too.


Join us at Show Me Progress!
by clarkent on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:47:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Why slander Hillary (none / 0)

when there are plenty of valid policy and rhetoric things to complain about her for?

For me the biggest is that she's been consistently hawkish on Iraq (unless the Byrd thing she press-released as cosponsoring ever actually comes out) in a way that just makes me sure she doesn't get it.

I don't care if Republicans don't like her, I don't. Democracy isn't supposed to be about what someone else wants, it's about what we want. What do we want?


Start Running Better Polls
by bolson on Wed May 16, 2007 at 11:06:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Given a likely margin of error of about 5%... (none / 0)

I agree about the standard Republican-issued talking points--that really creeps me out.


by Baltimore on Thu May 17, 2007 at 12:02:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Histograms, non-IRV counting methods (none / 0)

I've run my software over the results and gotten histograms and other results out of the raw data. (Thanks Chris!) If things look odd, it's probably my software converting rankings to ratings, 1st becomes 9, 2nd becomes 8 and so on.

The way I counted things, there were 1793 votes left after de-stuffing.

Further breaking down the second choices:

John Edwards as first choice (724) have second choice:

  • Barack Obama: 322 (44%)
  • Bill Richardson: 146 (20%)
  • ...

Barack Obama as first choice (560) have second choice:

  • John Edwards: 267 (48%)
  • Bill Richardson: 104 (19%)
  • Hillary Clinton: 74 (13%)
  • ...

Bill Richardson as first choice (179) have second choice:

  • John Edwards: 58 (32%)
  • Barack Obama: 38 (21%)
  • Hillary Clinton: 17 (9%)
  • ...

Other as first choice (105) have second choice:

  • John Edwards: 43 (41%)
  • Unsure: 20 (19%)
  • Barack Obama: 16 (15%)
  • ...

Hillary Clinton as first choice (92) have second choice:

  • Barack Obama: 28 (30%)
  • John Edwards: 25 (27%)
  • [none]: 11 (12%)
  • Bill Richardson: 11 (12%)
  • ...


Start Running Better Polls
by bolson on Wed May 16, 2007 at 09:30:09 PM EST

Re: Histograms, non-IRV counting methods (none / 0)

The numbers do not surprise me.


by yitbos96bb on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:18:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Blanks (none / 0)

I left the last 3-4 spaces blank as I honestly don't think I COULD bring myself to vote for Kucinich or Biden. I'd seriously considering voting for one of the Republicans if by some miracle they won.

I also put other as my first choice because I want Gore/Clark.


by MNPundit on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:28:33 PM EST

the poll was heavily stuffed (none / 0)

from looking at the raw data.

Richardson supporters stuffed/freeped all the polls I posted yesterday.


by NuevoLiberal on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:48:07 PM EST

DemoChoice is too easily stuffed (3.00 / 1)

I think BetterPolls.com is more resistant as it stands now, and if they find a way around it, I'll ratchet up the arms race every month until we win. ;-)


Start Running Better Polls
by bolson on Wed May 16, 2007 at 11:08:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Edwards+Obama overlap (none / 0)

Here is a sort of "acceptability" ranking, where the last place votes for every candidate are subtracted from their combined first, second, third and fourth place votes:

Edwards: 84.0%
Obama: 78.3%

This part actually surprised me a bit. The Edwards vs Obama sniping around here seems intense enough a lot of the time that it surprised me to see that both Edwards and Obama were liked by such large majorities of this site. From the frequent tone of the comments around here, I'd have expected things to be a lot more polarized.

So what I started wondering after seeing those two numbers above was, between the 84%+ that considers Edwards "acceptable" and the 78%+ that considers Obama "acceptable", what is the overlap?

I decided to check, and ran the results through perl. I threw away any ballots that only voted for one candidate (if you look at the results file, it very much appears the only people who did this were ballot stuffers for either Edwards or Richardson), and counted up the overlap between ballots that "approved" of Edwards and "approved" of Obama, with "approval" defined as including the candidate in one's top 4.

Approved of Edwards only: 17.81%
Approved of Obama only: 10.51%
Approved of both: 67.63%
Approved of neither: 4.05%

I think these numbers are pretty darn striking. The percentage of people who approved for Edwards and Obama at the same time in this poll is a veto-proof majority, and the group of people who top-4'd only one of the two, while larger for Edwards than Obama, were both relatively small minorities.

Assuming this poll is representative of the MyDD userbase, I'm going to conclude from this that one of the following three things must be the case:

  1. The people on MyDD strongly attacking Obama to promote Edwards or vice versa are a minority who don't speak for most of the users here.
  2. The people on MyDD strongly attacking Edwards to promote Obama or vice versa are doing so only because they feel strongly about the positive strengths of their preferred candidate, not because they have particularly strong reservations with the other candidate.
  3. There really isn't any strong amount of cross-sniping between Obama and Edwards supporters on this site, and the idea there has been is just my imagination.
By the way, I also ran the approval-overlap numbers on Clinton with both Edwards and Obama. I have no idea whatsoever to make of these, but the overlap is way, way less strong:

Edwards only: 52.16%
Clinton only: 6.67%
Both: 33.28%
Neither: 7.89%

Obama only: 44.43%
Clinton only: 6.24
Both: 33.71%
Neither: 15.63%

source code


by mcc on Thu May 17, 2007 at 02:47:44 AM EST

Re: Edwards+Obama overlap (none / 0)

Assuming this poll is representative of the MyDD userbase, I'm going to conclude from this that one of the following three things must be the case:

I vote for explanation #2. A lot of the sniping (in my case, at least) isn't based on a deep-seated hatred of the other candidate; it's just explaining why we don't favor him over the one we've chosen.


Join us at Show Me Progress!
by clarkent on Thu May 17, 2007 at 10:16:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: May Straw Poll Results (none / 0)

I've missed the last few straw polls.  When will the June poll open, and how do I access it?


The bad news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority. The good news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority.
by CLLGADEM on Thu May 17, 2007 at 07:43:25 AM EST

Re: May Straw Poll Results (none / 0)

Most likely it will run in one month.


Join us at Show Me Progress!
by clarkent on Thu May 17, 2007 at 10:11:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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