Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio

From

http://www.quinnipiac.edu/x1322.xml?Rele aseID=1064

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani gets 43 percent to Illinois Sen. Barack Obama's 42 percent in the 2008 presidential race in Ohio, and leads other Democrats by wider margins, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

...

"Ohio is the nation's premier swing state and Sen. Obama does best here of the Democrats, yet he needs to do something about Sen. Clinton's lead in the primary in order to have a chance to strut his stuff next November," said Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Clinton leads by huge margins but Obama polls better in the general. Obama needs to highlight this to democrats

interestingly this poll and a new survey USA in Missouri are at odds with the earlier Gallup poll.

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollRepo rt.aspx?g=8d193d0b-f937-41d6-b537-4566dc cfdb12

hmm, polls, polls, polls. folks aren't really decided. the nomination, i think is now largely name recognition. but polls can drive the narrative so we have no choice but keep up with them.



Display:


Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (none / 0)

How do you highlight to DEMOCRATS that Clinton does extremely well with liberals and far-left liberals, but not as good with Republicans?   Seems self-defeating to me.  


by georgep on Wed May 16, 2007 at 04:13:29 PM EST

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (3.00 / 2)

Does the General Election matter anymore?  That's what he's highlighting.  You can get all the Democrats votes you want, but you will never win an election if you can't appeal to independants and/or Republicans.  


by JeremiahTheMessiah on Wed May 16, 2007 at 05:00:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (3.00 / 1)

And since you like polls, it is DEAD HEAT in Iowa between Edwards, Clinton and Obama.

And Obama is training people to canvass, NH this weekend.  Obama is slowly, but steadily coming up in the poll numbers.

And Q2, will really focus on who's got the real, JUICE.


"I want my voice to be read"
by icebergslim on Wed May 16, 2007 at 05:35:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (none / 0)

Hey, I LIKE that it is a dead heat in Iowa.  All we've been hearing is how Edwards will slingshot himself into "popular" position in all the states he is way behind in by virtue of a rousing Iowa win.   Looking at how close Iowa really is, that is very much in doubt.  


by georgep on Wed May 16, 2007 at 08:48:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (none / 0)

Only according to who? Zogby. Psh.


by Quinton on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:01:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary is widely unpopular among indies (none / 0)

and Repubs. Her core support comes from low info Dems who are nostalgic for the 90's.


The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.
by Populism2008 on Wed May 16, 2007 at 06:58:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (none / 0)

Presumely this site is visited by "liberals and far-left liberals", and Hillary polls at 4%. She does not do "extremely well".


The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.
by Populism2008 on Wed May 16, 2007 at 06:59:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (3.00 / 2)

he needs to do absolutely nothing about Hillary's lead in Ohio, he needs to do well in Iowa and then win New Hmapshire. he will however subtly bring up the theme that Hillary is too polarizing to be our best nominee or president in 2008.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Wed May 16, 2007 at 04:23:42 PM EST

Can Hillary explain NAFTA to Ohioans... (none / 0)

who many lost their jobs to "south of the boarder" in manufacturing, because of Bill Clinton's NAFTA?

Don't think this won't come up in the debates ahead.


"I want my voice to be read"
by icebergslim on Wed May 16, 2007 at 05:36:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

He needs to WIN (none / 0)

Not do "extremely well". If he doesn't win some of these early big ones, its over.


by Mayor McCheese on Wed May 16, 2007 at 05:37:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama does better with Reps and Indeps than Dems (3.00 / 1)

This is what I think this poll shows.  The core Democrats haven't warmed to Senator Obama.  The moderate Republicans and Independents like him.


by Lorraine on Wed May 16, 2007 at 04:28:54 PM EST

bingo you nailed it (3.00 / 2)

and Obama is now going to union halls ect... making his point that the fact that he can appeal to independants makes him the better choice to advance thier issues. For Obama to get the nomination he must do 3 things.

1. really get the young enthusisatic voters to the polls in the primaries, I think he'll do that without too many problems, people don't go to rallies and donate money and thn don't show up

2. In the end get black voters to support him who were kind of waiting to see if he was for real and could actually win.

3. convince enough traditional democratic interest group voters that being able to bring some other voters to our table in an asset not a threat, he needs some people to put aside thier specific interests which no one can better play to than Hillary due to electability concerns. he doesn't need too many of these voters but he needs some, and the perception that Hillary wold have more trouble unifying the counrty behind her candidacy can be the thing that does it.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Wed May 16, 2007 at 04:44:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

AMEN, nevadadem... (none / 0)

I said that when people donate to a candidate, and folks are funny who they give their monies to, they SHOW UP AT THE POLLS.  Watch the young vote, closely here.

The Obama campaign said the students are also an increasingly important source of cash, particularly through the Internet.

While they wouldn't give specific numbers, Obama officials said students make up one of their largest donor groups.

http://www.barackobama.com/2007/05/16/st udents_are_the_backbone_of_b.php

My mother did not give to Obama the first quarter, she was skeptical and waiting to see how much money he could raise, and she is from Chicago.  Well, she gave $200.00 to the Michelle Obama letter, so African Americans ARE COMING AROUND.

And his campaign will address Hillary's electability, especially the polarizing part.  On C-Span's Washington Journal this morning, Cheryl Wetzstein from the Washington Times said that nothing gets the right more upset than three words, "President Hillary Clinton".  So, don't think that Indies and Republicans will split and run to her, especially if Rudy G is the nominee.  That is why she is pressing women, single women, to vote her way.  She needs them.  She is not trying to court any mainstream republicans, and she knows in polling the Indies break to Obama.

Listen to Washington Journal, for 5/16:

http://www.c-span.org/homepage.asp?Cat=S eries&Code=WJE&ShowVidNum=9& Rot_Cat_CD=WJ&Rot_HT=206&Rot_WD= &ShowVidDays=100&ShowVidDesc=&am p;ArchiveDays=30


"I want my voice to be read"
by icebergslim on Wed May 16, 2007 at 05:51:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (none / 0)

The poll you cited doesn't give other head-to-head matchups, just Hillary and Obama (and inexplicably, Gore) against McCain and Giuliani.


Join us at Show Me Progress!
by clarkent on Wed May 16, 2007 at 05:04:12 PM EST

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (none / 0)

Again they poll Edward's favorables, but don't include him in head to heads for the general. The last poll that did showed Edwards doing the best of all democrats in Ohio.

I'm waiting to see new polls that poll Edwards again. To not poll him is rediculous. Especially so when they poll Gore who isn't running.


by Quinton on Wed May 16, 2007 at 05:12:40 PM EST

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (none / 0)

can't edwards do something about this?

if you read in between the lines clinton's Mark Penn is agressively cherry-picking the polls and sending it to the press every damn week.

edwards isn't being agressive. obama's guys too should start cherry-picking the polls like mark penn.

these guys(clinton's folks) are the new karl rove team. you can't play nice with them and expect them to play fair. i need to see some agressive media narrative driving from the obama and edwards camp.


by pmb on Wed May 16, 2007 at 05:19:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (none / 0)

Edwards isn't paying to have polls done, or at least he didn't in the first quarter.  This is a funny poll, cause I hadn't seen one from Ohio in a while that showed Democrats losing.


"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR
by jallen on Wed May 16, 2007 at 07:14:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (none / 0)

They didn't do Edwards because he placed 4th in their poll (as he always does in QP). It's stupid of them to keep including Gore. But whatever.


by adamterando on Wed May 16, 2007 at 05:26:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (none / 0)

They probably have a cutoff.  Edwards numbers are too low in this sample, and in many of these other samples where head-to-heads aren't included.  Gore even outpolls Edwards.  


by georgep on Wed May 16, 2007 at 09:01:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (none / 0)

fuck Mark Penn, Obama doesn't even want the "frontrunner label" when he he was close to taking the lead before the SC debate he clearly said he's the underdog. Unless the funds dry up becuase people get discouraged, it's better for Obama to come from slighly behind in January in Iowa and New Hampshire that walk around with a huge target on his back all summer and fall. he slowly building up and army of donors, supporters and volunteers and will avoid the pitfall Dean had when he peaked way too early as the anti-establishment candidate.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Wed May 16, 2007 at 05:27:47 PM EST

Re: Quinnipiac: Obama best bet in Ohio (none / 0)

The Ohio Poll came out today and said only 27% OF the electorate in OH is paying close attention to the 2008 campaign.

They looked at favorab;es/un-favorables for both Repub's and Democrats.


by BDM on Wed May 16, 2007 at 06:19:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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