2007 events in first 4 states

The Washington Post has an event tracker for the candidates, looking at where they've been, which gives you a strategic view into where they are placing their bets. Here's a look at the first four states, and the events by the Democratic candidates to each (I'll also mention their days in the state), during 2007 thus far:

                Iowa     Nevada    New Hampshire    South Carolina


Obama           13        2         11               6
Edwards         15        5         17               13
Clinton         18        4         17               11
Richardson       9       14         20                8
Dodd            17        7         27               11
Biden           15        4         10                7
Kucinich         4        4         17                2
Gravel           0        3          4                1

Iowa: Obama's big state is here, 10 days to date, and his visits have been very diverse geographically. He's trying to stake out a bit of ground in eastern part of the state to date, but his pattern looks like a systematic blanket of the whole state, rather than concentrating on one area, at least to date. Richardson is definitely going for the eastern part of Iowa, but he's only been in Iowa three days, he's not playing here to win, but probably to beat expectations. Edwards is sticking to the big democratic population near Des Moines to date, 8 days in Iowa to date. Clinton has more coverage in the eastern and southern parts of the states, where your more traditional liberal democrats live, 8 days to date in Iowa. Biden is starting to camp out in Iowa, 9 days and the most events of any state for him, with an emphasis on Des Moines area. Dodd focus is the opposite of Richardson's with a big emphasis on his visits to the mid-eastern part of the state.

Nevada: The pattern for most of the candidates is to have went to Las Vegas and Reno. That's Biden, Dodd, Edwards, Clinton, Dodd, even Kucinich. But not Obama, where he's only done one visit to the state. Richardson though, is banking on Nevada. 7 days in the state thus far, and twice as many events as anyone else. Clinton has actually raised over $300K in the state, far more than anyone else. Aside from the debate held here, there's just not been a lot of action to date by anyone other than Richardson.

New Hampshire: I was surprised by how often Richardson is visiting here, with 6 days in the state, and the second highest total of events. Dodd is trying to find a few toeholds in Iowa, but he's banking on breaking out in New Hampshire, with 14 days in the state, by far the most. Clinton's in the Portsmouth seaboard area with emphasis, Biden's focus is in the Manchester-Concord area, and Obama's strategy in NH seems to be similar to what he's doing in Iowa, scattering his visits across the state, rather than in any one area. The Edwards strategy is interesting in NH, as he really didn't turn his engines on in the state until April (visiting just once in the first three months), but has visited the state 6 times in the past 8 weeks, so you get the sense that his camp believes they have more traction in the state this time than four years ago. Kucinich shows up in New Hampshire a lot. Overall, it's New Hamphshire that is getting the most visits of any state, which is telling, in that the strategy is to expect that NH leap-frogs into becoming the first contest for the nomination.

South Carolina: Also a debate location, so most candidates worked in events around that event. Biden spent 4 days straight in the state in April around the debate, besting everyone. Richardson camped out for 2 days after the debate, all in Columbia. The others, Clinton, Edwards, Dodd, Obama, Kucinich all stayed for one full day of campaigning after the debate. Edwards and Clinton are spending the most time of any of the candidates in the Charleston area of the state.

So, that's a look at a glance, at all the hours of staff and scheduling and strategy time that's went into the candidates visits to the 4 states thus far. It's amazing to me, having access to all of this information while not having thought about it at all for the past four months. In a previous cycle, it would have been something that campaigns would definitely not have shared openly, and competing campaigns would invest resources into tracking where their opponents have campaigned.



Display:


Re: 2007 events in first 4 states (none / 0)

That is surprising that Obama is near the bottom in the number of visits to New Hampshire.


BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Wed May 16, 2007 at 01:06:05 AM EST

the hardest worker is Dodd (none / 0)

His total visits tot he 3 traditional states, Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada are 55.

Hillary of the top 3 candidates is taking this just as eriously and is also working hard, especially considering that she is a full time Senator, unlike Edwards, at 46 visits to Edwards's 45 visits.  While Obama is loping up the rear at only 30 visits.  You wonder if this reveals a strategy or is just taking it for granted or what.


by debcoop on Wed May 16, 2007 at 02:15:14 AM EST

Re: the hardest worker is Dodd (none / 0)

I think Obama is garnering resources, in doing fundraisers in other states.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 16, 2007 at 07:44:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the hardest worker is Dodd (none / 0)

Obama is doing events all across the country.  He usually combines a high roller reception with 50-200 attendees with either a larger fundraiser of several hundred to a few thousand at 25-100$, or with a free rally 5,000-20,000.

Obama is the only candidate who can turn out anywhere near these numbers on a regular basis.  I would expect that he will focus more on the first four states as he wraps up these introductory tour events.

Obama has a bit of a disadvantage compared to Edwards and Clinton.  Edwards is a full time candidate.  Hillary has Bill to help her with fundraising.  Obama has to be a Senator, a fundraiser, a candidate, and Daddy to two small children.  The guy is constantly on the move, he must be exhausted.


by upper left on Wed May 16, 2007 at 08:50:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: the hardest worker is Dodd (none / 0)

No matter how you look at it Dodd is the hardest working PUBLIC figure.  These numbers are bullshit though, because they don't say anything about private events.

                 Iowa     Nev  NH  SC  Total   
Obama               13    2    11    6     32
Edwards             15    5    17    13    50
Clinton             18    4    17    11    50
Richardson           9   14    20     8    51
Dodd                17    7    27    11    62
Biden               15    4    10     7    36

If you take out the neighboring states for each (SC is Edwards neighboring state, NH for Dodd, Iowa for Obama, etc) - you get this.

                  Iowa   Nev   NH  SC Total  
Obama               0    2    11    6     19
Edwards             15    5    17    0    37
Clinton             18    4    0    11    33
Richardson           9    0    20    8    37
Dodd                17    7    0    11    35
Biden               15    4    0    7     26



BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics
by Robert P on Wed May 16, 2007 at 09:46:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2007 events in first 4 states (none / 0)

Yup, Edwards had a women's issues Town Hall just before lunch today a couple miles from where I live. Sadly I didn't get a chance to go.


by MNPundit on Wed May 16, 2007 at 02:19:09 AM EST

Re: 2007 events in first 4 states (none / 0)

ARG Poll, May 14, 2007
National Primary  
Democrats Mar 2007 Apr 2007 May 2007

Biden 1% 2% 3%
Clark 1% 1% 1%
Clinton 34% 36% 39%
Dodd 1% 1% 2%
Edwards 15% 19% 19%
Gravel - - -
Kucinich 1% 1% 1%
Obama 31% 24% 22%
Richardson 2% 2% 2%
Undecided 14% 14% 11%

Clinton and Edwards trending up.  Obama and undecideds trending down...


by dkmich on Wed May 16, 2007 at 08:11:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2007 events in first 4 states (none / 0)

Jerome, you may want to consider adding Florida to this list.  They have jumped to 1/29, which is the same day South Carolina is voting.   Florida's delegate count dwarfs all other early states, and I seriously doubt that an important state like Florida will be banned from the proceedings/delegate counts.  There are politics to consider, not the least of which is to try to get Florida back into the Democratic fold in 2008.  


by georgep on Wed May 16, 2007 at 02:58:42 AM EST

Re: 2007 events in first 4 states (none / 0)

I thought about it, but the thing is that most of the visits are for fundraising, and there's not much of a chance there at retail politics anyway.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 16, 2007 at 07:42:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: grammar (none / 0)

In the Nevada section, it should read "to have gone" not "to have went".  Is that use of "went" now accepted? It is grating and upsetting to read.  Maybe I'm just old.


by daddy0298 on Wed May 16, 2007 at 07:57:06 AM EST

Re: grammar (none / 0)

I also find it "grating and upsetting." I was surprised. I thought Jerome was a writer?


by Baltimore on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:24:47 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: grammar (none / 0)

You could have went with them.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 16, 2007 at 11:07:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: grammar (none / 0)

Dear Jerome:

  I enjoy reading your regular postings.  I admire your energy and good works.  But my understanding of standard English is the following:

I go (present tense), I went (past tense), I have gone (present perfect tense), I had gone (past perfect tense).

Here's something from the West Virginia Department of Education site.

http://wvde.state.wv.us/tt/2002/grammart ips/grammartip0004.html

Please do not take offense.

If there has been a change in this rule, please refer me to it.


by daddy0298 on Wed May 16, 2007 at 01:25:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2007 events in first 4 states (none / 0)

Is there a chart for 06 visits to these states? A breakdown of visits for that candidate alone and visits done for House/Senate/Gov races from 06? Just wondering.


by Newsie8200 on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:33:27 AM EST

Re: 2007 events in first 4 states (none / 0)

Yes, we changed the rule, thanks.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 16, 2007 at 04:34:59 PM EST

Re: Grammar (none / 0)

Ah!!

Thanks


by daddy0298 on Wed May 16, 2007 at 04:48:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Grammar (none / 0)

For now on, just assume the police have been alerted and grammar adjudicated.


by Jerome Armstrong on Wed May 16, 2007 at 07:16:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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