MyDD :: Obama is Back: Hillary 35%, Obama 33%

Obama is Back: Hillary 35%, Obama 33%

by pmb, Mon May 14, 2007 at 04:34:09 PM EST

From Rasmaussen:

For the fourth time in five weeks, a national Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Democratic Primary Voters shows Senators Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama within two points of each other. This week, it's Clinton 35% Obama 33%. Former Senator John Edwards is in third place with 14% support. New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson is a distant fourth at 3%.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_c ontent/politics/2008_democratic_presiden tial_primary

No comments from me, of course.

Tags: Obama, 2008, presidential polls (all tags)

Permalink :: 13 Comments :: Post a Comment

re (none / 0)

alot of those polls are simply name ID contests and make no attempt or incorrectly attempt to define a likely primary voter, by the way what's the point of Hillary posters here? is the race over? are you trying to say democrats love Hillary? Or are they trying to steamroll Hillary on the activist base by pushing poll numbers that others supporters simply don't think are very important or meaningfull at this stage.I agree the way those other polls measure the race, Hillary at this moment is ahead, if you look at the race another way which is trying to measure support by donors, enthusiasm and interest Hillary is further behind than Obama is in polls that pollsters never even bothered to take at this point in other election cycle.

Obama! because 51% isn't enough!

by nevadadem on Mon May 14, 2007 at 04:51:17 PM EST

Hillary 35%, Obama 33% (none / 0)

Quick question, what's the spread when only Democrats are included? You know, the people who actually show up in the primaries...

The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK

by Vox Populi on Mon May 14, 2007 at 05:21:14 PM EST

Re: Hillary 35%, Obama 33% (none / 0)

I'll answer my own question (Actually Scott Rasmussen answers it):

Among Democrats only, Clinton leads by eight percentage points, 39% to 31% (with Edwards at 15%). That's little changed from a week ago when Clinton led by eleven among Democrats in the survey.

The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK

by Vox Populi on Mon May 14, 2007 at 05:22:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary 35%, Obama 33% (none / 0)

Rasmussen is so far out of line with other national polls it is certain to be another outlier.

BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog

by robliberal on Mon May 14, 2007 at 05:23:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary 35%, Obama 33% (none / 0)

Or they have a better LV model... or all polls this far out are useless, unless YOUR candidate is leading OR we could just use polling averages which over the last several elections have been the most ACCURATE predictor.

http://www.imvotingrepublican.com/ McCain Sucks!

by yitbos96bb on Mon May 14, 2007 at 06:07:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary 35%, Obama 33% (none / 0)

Polling averages are the best indicator.

BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog

by robliberal on Mon May 14, 2007 at 06:43:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary 35%, Obama 33% (none / 0)

My theory on this is that Clinton got a post debate bump because the MSM gave her glowing reviews. The bump has now settled down and you are seeing a tightening of the race. If the polls that follow show a tightening of the race then I think my theory may be correct.

Rasmussen a few weeks ago showed a tightening of the race and Gallup, WSH and Time magazine all followed with a tightening of the race.

Gallup before the debate showed Clinton up by +5 and after the debate by +16 or 17

by BDM on Mon May 14, 2007 at 09:02:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Hillary 35%, Obama 33% (none / 0)

The race never tightened to the point Rasmussen would have you believe. They were off AT LEAST 7 points at any point of the supposed tightening. In fact, over the last 6 weeks, EVERY ONE of their polls has been a gross outlier when compared to anyone else's poll. They are, once again, off the charts with their predictions.

I don't believe that the race is a 18% or 17% race, but it is probably closer to 12, 13% right now. We are once again treated to Rasmussen's outlier polls while all other polls will show at least a 7% difference to them.

The problem with Rasmussen's poll is that it is included in the averaging of polls on a weekly basis, while other polls factor in only monthly or bi-monthly.

Rasmussen made mention that the numbers are not likely to be really as tight as they portray (talking about Indies not being much of a factor in primaries.)

by georgep on Tue May 15, 2007 at 08:39:38 AM EST
[ Parent ]

and yet, mysteriously (none / 0)

ARG, which flies in the face of all other polls; which gives no track record, and no metrics by which to judge their credibility; and shows Hillary cleaning Obama's clock with independents; somehow, ARG is the actual state of the race. And Rasmussen is the TOTAL OUTLIER!!111!1

Sure.

by jforshaw on Tue May 15, 2007 at 11:44:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: and yet, mysteriously (none / 0)

"flies in the face of all other polls"?

WHAT? Here are ALL polls from last week:

CNN/Opinion Research: 14% Clinton lead

USA Today/Gallup: 15% Clinton lead

Marist: 18% Clinton lead

Quinnipiac: 14% Clinton lead

ARG: 17% Clinton lead

Rasmussen: 2% Clinton lead

Is there a single person in the universe (young or old) who can't see which of these polls flies in the face of all other polls? Obama fans are trying to convince us that ONE, and ONLY ONE poll is the right one. Despite the fact that the recent past has shown their weekly polls to be outliers that were not backed up by other polls.

by georgep on Tue May 15, 2007 at 12:58:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

As much as I like seeing these results (none / 0)

I'm hesitant to buy into any polls at the moment, which I'll say consistently through the primaries. As sweet as it is for Obama to be in range of Clinton is this or any poll, it would be best if he didn't overtake her just yet.

by mihan on Mon May 14, 2007 at 06:48:03 PM EST

Obama is Back: Hillary 35%, Obama 33% (none / 0)

" Whatever. Look at the Democrats only and you will see that Hillary is the real choice. Never mind the fact that the Independents who were polled are allowed to vote in the Primaries or they can just register as Democrats in order to vote in the Primaries. But, let's ignore them because they choose Obama 2/1"

Clinton Supporters

" Poo Poo. This poll means NOTHING, I tell ya. NOTHING! John Edwards is up by FOUR points in Iowa. Never mind that he's within the margin of error . He's in the LEAD! Oh, and don't confront me with the fact that he's way way behind in his own backyard South Carolina. Shh. Don't mention that. John Edwards is still relevant in this race and I'll say so until he loses!"

Edwards Supporters

" This is great. Barack Obama is competitive again. That post debate drop didn't last. Once all of the American people have an opportunity to meet him, it will only get better for him. I just hope he doesn't beat Hillary too early because that will open him up to innecesary bull. So, I am pleased where he's at right now. The fact that he's drawing the vital independents shows that he will do well in the general. His strategy is so on target. "

Obama Supporters

Did I miss anything?

"I don't believe in this can't do, won't do, won't even try style of politics. Yes We Can!" ~ Barack Obama

by ObamaEdwards2008 on Tue May 15, 2007 at 08:26:46 AM EST

Re: Obama is Back: Hillary 35%, Obama 33% (none / 0)

It would help your case if this poll was backed up by other polls. Generally, when one poll comes out to show one result and five other polls show the complete opposite, you call that poll an outlier. That is, unless you are an Obama fan, then all other polls are garbage and this one poll is the right one. :-)

So, watch how things unfold in the polls. I expect it to settle to an 8% to 12% differential in the weeks ahead, while Rasmussen shows a tight race. If things work out differently and other polls show a 2% race or even an Obama lead, you may have something. Then there is some backup to this poll, which currently is lacking.

Absent backup showing the same numbers (or even better, an Obama lead) this poll will remain an outlier and be handled as such, logically.

by georgep on Tue May 15, 2007 at 08:44:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

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