Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad?

There really shouldn't be anything scandalous about buying ads for political campaigns.  But anyone who reads progressive blogs knows that there's a lot of concern about how it's being done by and for Democratic campaigns.

Matt Stoller invited us to post a five-part series, beginning today and continuing the rest of this week, to talk about one facet of media buying, cable TV, and to share our analysis of cable buying by Democratic groups in three hotly-contested congressional districts in 2006.  

The analysis begins after the jump.

We will not be making the case that cable ads are a silver bullet that solves Democrats' problems.  But we do believe cable is a very important tool that Democrats and progressives should be - but mostly have not been - using to communicate more effectively, and more cost-effectively.

And though these posts focus only on cable, we're hard-core proponents of what we call "converged" campaigns:  identifying the right mix of "traditional" and new media, and then making sure they're all integrated and synchronized with the other campaign activities (field, earned media, mail, phones, etc.) so that the campaign's message is delivered at the right time to the specific audiences it needs to reach.

Today's post is a brief overview of cable buying and why it's important.  Over the next four days we'll provide specific details about our analysis, including how much money was being wasted, why it was being wasted, and how to make smarter, more cost-effective cable buys.  

But here's the bottom line:  the Democratic groups buying in the three Congressional Districts wasted more than half of their money. And if they had taken full advantage of cable's microtargeting potential, their buys would have been twice as effective at reaching voters for one-third less money than was actually spent.

An Overview of Cable

In the 1930s, it was radio.  In the 1960s, TV.

Both of these "new" technologies dramatically changed the communications landscape, as well as the political fortunes of those who did - and did not - take advantage of them.

New media technologies - online ads, social networking, mobile communication, and even cable TV - are radically changing that landscape again by providing more and better opportunities for microtargeting and communicating with voters.  And as before, political fortunes can be determined by who does - or does not - take advantage of them.

Cable is an important bridge between a traditional medium - television - and new technologies, which allows advertisers to target and communicate with specific audiences in a way that is not possible on broadcast TV or even radio.  But just because audiences can be microtargeted on cable doesn't mean they are being microtargeted on cable.  

Simon Rosenberg (at NDN) and Pete Leyden (at NPI) have made a convincing case, reinforced by Jerome Armstrong, Kos, and many others, that most Democratic campaigns and consultants have failed to utilize cable's microtargeting capacity and that, in the process, they are wasting money and losing votes.

They're right.  For too long, Democrats have ignored cable or simply tossed a few token crumbs in its direction.  

It doesn't have to be that way.

The beauty of cable TV is that advertisers can target audiences both geographically and demographically.  While audiences can be targeted demographically on broadcast TV, there's often huge waste on the geographic side - especially in Congressional and state legislative races or issue advocacy campaigns where the ads reach audiences who live outside the targeted area.  

For example, ads placed on broadcast TV in Louisville reach voters in Louisville, central Kentucky, and southern Indiana.  Why would a campaign spend most of its ad budget buying an entire media market (e.g. Louisville, central Kentucky and southern Indiana) when its target voters live in a small subset of the market (e.g. Kentucky's 3rd Congressional District)?  

That's the only choice, however, when buying broadcast TV.  And because broadcast TV reaches so many more people over such a large area, each spot that's aired costs a lot more money.  Money that in many cases is wasted on people who can't vote for your candidate or issue.

With cable, campaigns can buy ads on the systems that primarily reach only the geographic areas where their target audiences live.  That targeting is tremendously important in Congressional and state legislative races. But it's also important in statewide and Presidential contests because the voter file can (and should) be matched with local cable systems to identify and reach key persuadable voters. And that can be done far less expensively than if the campaign were just buying broadcast TV throughout the entire media market.

Cable also enhances a campaign's ability to target demographically. Different cable networks attract different demographic audiences, as do the various programs airing on those networks. Republicans are more likely to be watching FoxNews and Bill O'Reilly. Men are more apt to be watching ESPN and the History Channel, while women are more likely to be watching Food Network, Lifetime, and Home and Garden.  Campaigns targeting Democrats, Independents and Women over 35 years of age should not be buying ads on FoxNews any more than the Democratic Presidential candidates should participate in FoxNews debates.

None of this means that broadcast TV is dead or that it should be ignored by campaigns:  Not everyone has cable, and many people still get their local news from broadcast TV.  But it does mean that campaigns and consultants should make sure they're taking full advantage of cable's potential to target voters geographically and demographically.

When it comes to buying cable, like so many other things in life, there's a right way and a wrong way.  And over the next four days we'll talk more about both.



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Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (none / 0)

How is it that Democrats ever get tricked into wasting their time on the O'Reilly show anyway?


by aquinofish on Mon May 14, 2007 at 12:47:38 PM EST

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (none / 0)

Trippi did a good job using cable in John Hall's (NY-19)race. Knowing the markets and targets made all the difference.


by The Rogue on Mon May 14, 2007 at 12:49:58 PM EST

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (none / 0)

I actually asked Dan Seals (D-IL) about this issue, since his unsuccessful campaign for the 10th district last cycle spent a lot on broadcast ads that were shown all over the Chicago market.  That market includes somewhere between 10 and 15 congressional districts, including northwestern Indiana.  I told Mr. Seals that it struck me as an inefficient use of campaign money, and he agreed.  But he said the advantage to him and his campaign was that it raised his profile and made his campaign look more serious, which in turn helped him raise money he wouldn't otherwise have been able to access.

I think that answer makes a lot of sense, for his campaign.  Many campaigns can be taken seriously by virtue of support from the DCCC, which didn't support the Seals campaign until very late last cycle.  So I guess the real lesson is that if the DCCC would broaden its playing field earlier, more campaigns could focus on microtargeting with cable rather than expensively establishing themselves on airwaves.


by I voted for Kodos on Mon May 14, 2007 at 01:47:30 PM EST

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (3.00 / 1)

You've put your finger on the problem: historically, political insiders have only taken candidates seriously if they were spending lots of money on broadcast TV. But that's the wrong metric and one that should be changed.  Why should candidates be taken seriously only if they are wasting hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads that are mostly reaching people who can't vote for them?  It's backwards.

The "serious" candidates are (or should be) the ones who are figuring out exactly who they need to reach, and then the most cost-effective way to reach them.  That doesn't mean no broadcast TV - there's still a place for it in many races. For a district like IL-10, though, the vast majority of people seeing ads on Chicago broadcast TV couldn't vote for Dan Seals.  There are much more cost-effective ways to raise a candidate's profile.


by MacWilliams Kirchner Sanders on Mon May 14, 2007 at 02:32:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (none / 0)

"Why should candidates be taken seriously only if they are wasting hundreds of thousands of dollars on ads that are mostly reaching people who can't vote for them?"

Umm.

Because on the Dem side, the insiders/consultants get paid on commission.  So the serious candidates are the ones who spend serious money on broadcast ads.  

The solution isn't to convince people to switch to cable.  The solution is fees to consultants based on performance and transparency.


by dansomone on Mon May 14, 2007 at 04:36:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (none / 0)

Sort of true, but not really.

If the commission is 17% of the ad buy, does the consultant really care if the ad buy happens on cable, broadcast, or a mix thereof?

Sure, there's probably more work doing it through cable - but that's marginal.  17% of a million bucks is still $170,000.

One smart move I've seen used before is hiring a firm that does TV, radio, and direct mail.  By doing it all, you avoid your TV and mail consultants going to war with each other - and you get a consultant whose incentive is to spend the money effectively, not win an internal fight over where to spend the money.


by karichisholm on Tue May 15, 2007 at 12:59:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (none / 0)

But, if your comission is based on ad buys... why would you want to use money effectively?

The serious candidate is the one who pays the most comissions, in other words, the one who uses money LEAST effectively.


by dansomone on Wed May 16, 2007 at 10:44:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (3.00 / 1)

Broadcast TV is universal but cable TV has become nearly universal with over 75% of household's having access.  Even if an advertiser had no desire to reach a geographically concentrated audience like a congressional district, many viewers (myself included) mainly watch cable.  Today's broadcast hits get ratings less than half the numbers of some of the shows in the 60's.

Cable TV is a no brainer.


by David Kowalski on Mon May 14, 2007 at 02:13:10 PM EST

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (none / 0)

Better question: What percentage of voters get cable?

I don't know, but since the voting population skews upward socio-economically and so does cable-subscribing, ya gotta figure the cable audience has slightly more voters than the broadcast audience.


by karichisholm on Tue May 15, 2007 at 01:00:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (none / 0)

Thanks for mentioning the New Politics Institute's work.  For those of you who are interested in this topic - and that should be everybody who cares about winning elections - we'll be updating that paper soon and you'll be able to find it at http://www.newpolitics.net


by Aaron Banks on Mon May 14, 2007 at 03:52:59 PM EST

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (none / 0)

I'm sure we are now going to read how Mac Sanders is different than all the rest

I don't trust any used car salesmen or politicans who says but ....I'm different


by johngreen on Mon May 14, 2007 at 06:20:11 PM EST

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (none / 0)

My organization, Public Campaign Action Fund, and its segregated 527 account, Campaign Money Watch, has work with these folks for the last three election cycles. I can't speak about other firms over this time -- I haven't worked with other firms. So my comment here is not a relative one.

Let me say two major things about my experience: 1) They're selfless: Over time, they were recommending more cable and less broadcast, and a more varied communication plan that didn't always involve commission, and 2) They're ahead of the curve: When it comes to media campaigns, major donors, the press, and other organizations don't measure the impact of the campaign on the number of voters targeted -- the metric is still how much money is being spent. That's not something MacWilliams Kirchner Sanders buys into.

For example, we spent $75,000 on voter education in Ralph Reed's GOP primary to become the Georgia lieutenant governor. That money was spent in 17 targeted counties by targeting high-propensity GOP voters in cable clusters within those counties with email, phones, and limited TV and radio. I guarantee that some other firm wouldn't have gone there -- GOP voters in GA -- with us.

With all that promotion of them behind me, my guess is that they will actually NOT promote themselves. They want to change practices of their colleagues and their colleagues' clients.


by David Donnelly on Mon May 14, 2007 at 08:35:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (none / 0)

I'd be interested to hear what MKS have to say about satellite TV and campaigns.  I'm out in the country, until recently beyond the reach of cable, and in any case the dish is still a better deal locally than cable.

Is sat TV structurally economically unappealing to all but national campaigns?  Because I can't remember when I've seen a political ad on the dish.  Yet my understanding is that the number of dish subscribers nationally has grown tremendously since the last presidential election.


by Nell on Tue May 15, 2007 at 09:17:53 AM EST

Re: Pssst ... Wanna Buy an Ad? (none / 0)

Great question. Satellite television grew tremendously in the past ten years. In 1994 there were not even a million total subscribers. In 2004, there were about 23 million. Today, between DirecTV and DISH Network, there are approximately 28.4 million households that have satellite television. From what we've seen, the number of people making the switch from cable to satellite is starting to taper off but it's still a valid concern for campaigns.

The problem: you cannot target satellite locally, it's a national advertising tool. Satellite can only be bought by large geographic regions. For example, with DISH you have to buy either Pacific, Mountain, Central, or Eastern - each of which includes at least 5 states. Even for a statewide campaign, at this time, it wouldn't be an effective use of campaign dollars because the vast majority of people seeing the ad would be unable to vote for your candidate or issue.  One interesting development, Google has reached a deal with DISH and is also in negotiations with DirecTV to deliver ads, which could change things.

Finally, many DirecTV and DISH Network subscribers get local broadcast channels through their satellite package. That means political ads aired on those channels would be seen by satellite subscribers. Another reason it makes sense to keep broadcast in the mix when planning a communications campaign.


by MacWilliams Kirchner Sanders on Tue May 15, 2007 at 02:30:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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