MyDD :: Rudy and the GOP's upcoming Cultural War

Rudy and the GOP's upcoming Cultural War

by Jerome Armstrong, Fri May 11, 2007 at 09:35:21 AM EST

The end of the "Hillary vs Obama" video was obviously filmed before Rudy threw down the gauntlet with his stand on protecting abortion rights:

After months of conflicting signals on abortion, Rudolph W. Giuliani is planning to offer a forthright affirmation of his support for abortion rights in public forums, television appearances and interviews in the coming days, despite the potential for bad consequences among some conservative voters already wary of his views, aides said yesterday.

At the same time, Mr. Giuliani's campaign -- seeking to accomplish the unusual task of persuading Republicans to nominate an abortion rights supporter -- is eyeing a path to the nomination that would try to de-emphasize the early states in which abortion opponents wield a great deal of influence. Instead they would focus on the so-called mega-primary of Feb. 5, in which voters in states like California, New York and New Jersey are likely to be more receptive to Mr. Giuliani's social views than voters in Iowa and South Carolina.

That approach, they said, became more appealing after the Legislature in Florida, another state they said would be receptive to Mr. Giuliani, voted last week to move the primary forward to the end of January.

The Republican frontrunner, ahead in the polls by double-digits, says over abortion: "Ultimately, there has to be a right to choose." Heck, he even frames the issue on Democratic terms. This is gonna bring it on.

This is probably one of the biggest events to have happened within the Republican Party's nomination season thus far, it's going to radically shape the debate on their side:

Pat Buchanan: A Rudy nomination would bring the culture war right down onto the floor of the Republican convention. For Rudy is not only pro-choice on abortion, he has supported affirmative action, favored amnesty for illegals, turned New York into a sanctuary city where the NYPD was forbidden to ask arrestees their immigration status, has championed gay rights, marched in gay pride parades -- once not all that far behind the big float of the North American Man/Boy Love Association. He is thrice married, and he used to bring his main squeeze into Gracie Mansion while still married to the mother of his son. When she threw him out, he was taken in by a couple of gay friends. And Rudy is now suiting up to lead the family values party into battle?

Rick Edwards: You had so much promise, Rudy. If you follow this course of action you're going to blow it big time. It will simply be impossible to ever capture the Republican nomination after offering a "forthright affirmation" of support for abortion rights. What are you thinking, Rudy?

RightWingNews: I'm glad Rudy is "at peace," with losing over his abortion stance, because no matter how much money and name recognition he has or what strategies he tries, this is going to be the final nail in his coffin.

ABP: Talk about a high-risk strategy. I'm not going to waste time telling you how politically earth-shattering it would be for him to actually get the GOP nomination while espousing a pro-choice view, because you already know that. But I think it's a move he had to make. Anyone who watched his tortured answer to the abortion question at the debate, or listened to him on Laura Ingram's radio show (where they talked about nothing else) knows that Giuliani's attempt to deal with the question was absolutely killing him politically.

CQ's: The electoral strategy seems sound. California Republicans have a dwindling influence in the state, and they have tended to skew moderate. Florida has a stronger vein of conservatism, but still trends more moderate. New York and New Jersey Republicans tend to reflect Giuliani in any case. With the leapfrogging of the high-population states to the front of the primaries, the abortion issue could have much less impact in the primaries than before. Even without that, Giuliani would have had to choose this strategy. His attempt to dance around Roe in the debate was painful and unnecessary.

This was what I have blogged that would be Rudy's strategy all along, skate through the first states, do some damage to McCain, and score big on Feb 5th. Rudy seemed to have a covert strategy of paying lip service to the small first theocon-driven states, while gathering up funds to be a player on Feb 5th in the big media states. That strategy was terrific, but then they changed it, believing the polls about his being the frontrunner.

I think what happened was they got sidetracked into believing that maybe Rudy could play as a faux-conservative on social issues in the early primary states. That was an over-reach, and now they are back to their original strategy; and no longer even covert about it, which has to be viewed as a huge blunder.

This all reminds me of Dean in Iowa. Trippi's strategy was always to finish second in Iowa, knowing that Kerry would be the strongest nominee, and having Gephardt win Iowa would do the most damage to Kerry. Then a couple of fall '03 polls in Iowa showed Dean in a double-digit lead, and with Clark getting in the race, the whole DFA effort dumped everything into Iowa. A radical shift of strategy that altered the field, making it possible for Kerry to likewise dump all his resources into Iowa, and make a comeback.

We'll see how this plays out for Rudy. Abortion will be front and center on the GOP's plate for their nomination. Rudy's publically telling the first states they are not big in his plans. All the other GOP candidates have ammunition to gun onto his frontrunner status for the next 6 months. The Democratic nomination battle will look timid in comparison.

Tags: Rudy Giuliani (all tags)

Permalink :: 22 Comments :: Post a Comment

and so he shoehorns his way into the nomination? (none / 0)

then who does he expect to help him in the general election? The conservative base, as loony as it is, does work it's ass off to help elect those that support their views. It seems to me that a sizable chunk of conservatives will not do the phone banking, door knocking, and other essential activites that Guiliani will need to get elected. The "moderates" that he is cultivating to shoehorn his way into the nomination are notoriously ambivalent about politics and won't put in the volunteer time that Guiliani will need. Maybe I'm overly simplistic about this but this looks like a fool's errand by Guiliani. and for me, I could care less who the GOP nominee is, if Guiliani thinks he can beat us by peeling off alot of Democrats, I think he's nuts.

by gasperc on Fri May 11, 2007 at 09:45:32 AM EST

Re: and so he shoehorns his way into the nominatio (none / 0)

I agree with this completely. And it's not just choice ... it's also guns. What would the NRA do?

Even beyond volunteers, the communications channels of the GOP anti-choice and gun organizations are huge. If you've never known a plugged-in social conservative, you have no idea how much information they get through that channel (email, church bulletins, conversations at church, sermons); I'd say it's their primary news source by far. And if they aren't working for the GOP nominee, I don't see how he stands a chance. Same thing with the NRA communications channels.

Basically, if the nominee is anyone other than Hillary, Giuliani gets crushed in an historic manner. Richardson may not be my first choice, but if by some strange twist of fate it's Giuliani-Richardson, the GOP would be in enormous trouble.

by BriVT on Fri May 11, 2007 at 10:08:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy and the GOP upcoming Cultural War (none / 0)

That seems like a classic mistake of thinking that since California is pro-choice, its GOP voters are moderate on choice. I don't have data to back up this feeling, but in a low-turnout primary, I'd suspect that CA-GOP voters are probably just as anti-choice as many other states that are more conservative overall.

by BriVT on Fri May 11, 2007 at 10:03:10 AM EST

Re: Rudy and the GOP upcoming Cultural War (none / 0)

I can't say this with any certainty, but I'd bet that you're right. There may be some moderate tendencies of California Republican primary voters compared to those of, say, South Carolina, but they are almost certainly more conservative than the average California Republican. They are involved in politics so much that they vote in primaries, and because they are Republicans, they certainly believe in the party's platform.

by bjaklitsch on Wed May 23, 2007 at 08:16:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Stick a Fork in Him (none / 0)

Rudy is done. Funny thing is, the Fred Thompson mini-boomlet that had brought Rudy back towards the pack showed serious signs of being over. This resusciatates McCain and may generate a new, "moderate" Mitt Romney in a move to fill the vacuum. What a mess (and a stupid move, to boot).

by David Kowalski on Fri May 11, 2007 at 10:19:34 AM EST

Re: Stick a Fork in Him (none / 0)

It is interesting though, just barely a week since Giuliani stated it would be "ok" if Roe v. Wade was overturned, he's now putting down his foot and saying he's in favor of the right to have an abortion. Of course, this really may be more a move calculated at Romney than anything. As you can see here: http://thenewsroom.com/details/292273/Po litics Giuliani is maybe trying to state that he is at least firm on his views, and honest about them, while others (like Romney) are instead just going to switch to whatever side of the issue is popular at the time.

~John

by jtaylor20052 on Fri May 11, 2007 at 02:23:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy and the GOP upcoming Cultural War (none / 0)

I think its a smart move if it suceeds, and a dumb one if it doesn't. Meaning- I have no clue what the impact will be because the field is so weak.

by bruh21 on Fri May 11, 2007 at 10:46:25 AM EST

Re: Rudy and the GOP upcoming Cultural War (none / 0)

The electoral strategy seems sound. California Republicans have a dwindling influence in the state, and they have tended to skew moderate. Florida has a stronger vein of conservatism, but still trends more moderate.

I don't know what CQ is thinking here. If discussing the General election, maybe they would have some kind of point.

But the California Republican base is really hard right. Their few statewide electeds aren't, but they depend on a sclerotic CDP leadership and non-party voters for election. If you look at the CA state legislators and the CA Republican Congressional delegation you get a much better picture of how far right the Republicans in CA are.

Similarly, I suspect that Florida Republicans are essentially Southern Culture Warriors, though I'm far less knowledgeable on that score. I suspect Rudy is hosed in the primaries in both of these states based on his position on choice.

by jsw on Fri May 11, 2007 at 11:03:45 AM EST

I don't think Rudy is DONE... (none / 0)

the conservative base is a mixed bag. The part of the GOP that ppl always focus on is the "evangelical part". They are a small part, not the whole. There are a lot more conservative, moderate people in the GOP that will support Rudy G and don't give a rat's ass on abortion. You will be surprised. If Rudy gets it, of course the GOP will work for him, they want to win, right? And if Hillary gets the nod from the Dems, then this will be a hard fought race, because they both are very similar in thinking and don't think Rudy will not attract Democrats who are moderate/conservative. HE WILL, that is what is scary. For many with an issue with Clinton, many will not have an issue to vote for Rudy G. Just bein' honest, here.

"I want my voice to be read"

by icebergslim on Fri May 11, 2007 at 11:05:33 AM EST

Rudy v. Hillary... (none / 0)

...wow, the collateral damages from that campaign would be epic. I'd put the edge to Hillary in that fight, Rudy would be playing on her field.

by MNPundit on Fri May 11, 2007 at 11:11:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I don't think Rudy is DONE... (none / 0)

I'm not saying you're necessarily wrong, but the question is this: can Rudy win a primary without support and with near-unanimous opposition from that fundie base? They turn out. And they will NEVER vote for someone who is even a little soft on choice.

I think the answer is no, but obviously, opinions differ.

by jsw on Fri May 11, 2007 at 11:42:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

First real world comment of the bunch (none / 0)

Instead of scattergun guessing, why don't posters here sample some balanced websites, get a feel for the right wing posters, and see what the opinion is of Rudy. Big hint: you'll be shocked, and throw away the cliche "Stick a Fork in Rudy" line.

The posters on progressive sites who are writing that are the ones who were trying to pretend that Mike Huckabee would magically emerge solely because he fit their preferred blueprint of a contemporary Republican.

The nightmare scenario is the GOP handicaps electability properly and identifies Rudy, while we ignore it based on '04 and come up with Hillary. That possibility scares me every day. Newsflash: both are favored right now and favorites hit at very high percentage in the presidential nominating process.

It's ridiculous to assert the GOP will follow a Rudy nod with a third party run. The entire point of a Rudy nomination would be a concession that an atypical nominee is needed in an unfavorable climate like '08. You don't lance that with third party candidate who steals from your own guy. Make no mistake, both parties will work feverishly for their standard bearer, regardless if he/she was the first choice of the so-called base of the party.

I have a wager on Rudy but I'm rooting for him to fail. He'll definitely steal from our soft supporters in a general election. That's another reality via the balanced sites. Posters, particularly males, who are moderate and even lean our way are more excited about a Rudy run than any of our candidates.

by Gary Kilbride on Fri May 11, 2007 at 03:41:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: First real world comment of the bunch (none / 0)

I think it's ridiculous to say that a hypothetical conservative third-party candidate would steal a very large portion of Rudy's potential votes if he is the nominee, but that's not what could make the difference. If this person could potentially take five percent of the votes that Rudy would otherwise get, it might help us in, say, Michigan or Pennsylvania, where the race could be close.

The question really comes down to what you hint at: how big of an exception is the Republican base really willing to make. Right now, it's not entirely clear.

by bjaklitsch on Wed May 23, 2007 at 08:22:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy and the GOP upcoming Cultural War (none / 0)

I see this as a win-win no matter what :D if Rudy wins, the base gets demoralized and doesn't help out [unless they really really think the Dem is Satan]. If the wingnuts drive Rudy away, the party shifts FURTHER to the right in a country shifting to the Left.

This is going to be so much fun.

Political Games: Where the fuck's the reset button?

by themann1086 on Fri May 11, 2007 at 11:20:34 AM EST

Re: Rudy and the GOP upcoming Cultural War (none / 0)

Yep. I'm quite happy Rudy has done the honorable thing here, and honored his past. And BTW, Rudy was endorsed by the Liberal Party here in NYC in 1993.

by NYFM on Fri May 11, 2007 at 12:12:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy and the GOP upcoming Cultural War (none / 0)

The Liberal Party's endorsement had more to do with the close relationship between Giuliani and the party's leader, Raymond Harding, than any sort of liberal ideology on Giuliani's part.

Raymond Harding's son, Russell Harding, was one of the most corrupt members of the entire Giuliani Administration. Bernie Kerik couldn't hold a candle to that guy, frankly. The fact that Raymond Harding gave Giuliani an endorsement in exchange for letting Harding's son rip off the city is an interesting piece of NYC history, but let's not try to draw any electoral implications from it.

"Another problem we have...is that in election years we behave somewhat as primitive peoples do at the time of the full moon." --Harry Truman

by Steve M on Fri May 11, 2007 at 01:18:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rudy, come home (none / 0)

wouldn't it be great of Rudy announced he was switching parties?

I mean, just for the spectator fun. Imagine the heads exploding at RS.

by azizhp on Fri May 11, 2007 at 11:30:22 AM EST

Re: Rudy and the GOP upcoming Cultural War (none / 0)

The door is getting wider every day for a third party run by someone on the far right. If a serious candidate emerges (even possibly one from the GOP primaries) it would draw a lot of GOP votes away if Rudy is the nominee.

BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog

by robliberal on Fri May 11, 2007 at 12:16:13 PM EST

Re: Rudy and the GOP upcoming Cultural War (none / 0)

The Constitution Party always runs someone. Last time it was Judge Roy Moore, who was not a credible candidate. If Brownback or Huckabee were to run, that might be interesting.

by jsw on Fri May 11, 2007 at 01:09:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy and the GOP upcoming Cultural War (none / 0)

Yeah, the second Giuliani's nomination seems inevitable (if he gets that far) there WILL be a third-party run from the religious right. How could there not be? These people have been the holy foot-soldiers of the right for decades and they are not going to watch all their hard work go down with the adulterous, pro-choice, gay friendly, cross-dressing NY `liberal' Rudy Giuliani.

No way in hell.

"Don't hate the media, become the media" - Jello Biafra

by LandStander on Fri May 11, 2007 at 01:50:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy and the GOP's upcoming Cultural War (none / 0)

Hm.

Well, it's definitely good that he's doing the intellectually honest thing and expressing the views he apparently actually holds rather than the views it's politically advantageous to him to express, though it surely would have been better had be been willing to do this sooner.

But we're not really concerned with whether he did the right thing or not, are we? We're just concerned with how this changes the race. So:

I don't know whether this is bad for Giuliani or not. However, I will say this:

If this does turn out to be bad for Giuliani, it will immediately turn out to be very, very bad for the Republicans. If Giuliani is taken down because he doesn't toe the "pro-life" party line, this will signal to moderates, nonfundamentalists, log cabiners, civil libertarians, whoever, within the Republican party that this is not their party and they are not welcome there, and the flow of moderates out of the Republican party, which up until now has seemed like just a steady trickle no matter how extreme the party itself gets, may well spike immensely...

by Silent sound on Fri May 11, 2007 at 07:08:49 PM EST

Re: Rudy and the GOP's upcoming Cultural War (none / 0)

I read somewhere that Giuliani recently met with the Log Cabin Republicans who told him they supported him and he should not turn too far to the hard right. I think this strategy is interesting, given the base of the Repubs. Are there enough moderates voting in their primary to give him the nomination?

by Kingstongirl on Fri May 11, 2007 at 09:45:40 PM EST

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