A challenge to Iowa's Democratic Senator Tom Harkin has long represented the place where Repbulican Congressmen from the state go to retire. After upending the incumbent Republican Senator in 1984, Roger Jepsen, by a fairly comfortable margin, Harkin has defeated a sitting Republican member of the United States House in each of his three reelection bids, garnering between 52 percent and 54 percent of the vote in each campaign. This year, it appeared as though one of Iowa's two GOP Congressmen, Steve King or Tom Latham, was going to undertake the task of mounting a competitive but in the end futile challenge to Harkin in 2008. But according to David Yepsen, the dean of the Iowa political press corps, it looks increasingly likely that neither of the two will make the plunge this cycle.
It looks like Democratic Senator Tom Harkin will get a pass from Republicans when he runs for re-election in 2008. No big-name Republican challengers have emerged, just some unknowns.Evidence for that came this weekend when Republican U.S. Senator Chuck Grassley couldn't name anyone who is thinking of taking on his Democratic colleague. (Grassley was interviewed on Iowa Public Television's "Iowa Press" program. You can look at the transcript here.)
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Serious challengers get scared off by [Harkin's more than $2 million on hand], and by history. According to Harkin's office, the Congressional Research Service has said the Iowa Democrat has defeated more sitting Republican members of Congress than any Democrat in the history of the Senate.
(There are five: Bill Scherle, Roger Jepsen, Tom Tauke, Jim Lightfoot, and Greg Ganske.)
So it's little wonder top GOP office-holders aren't interested in becoming the sixth.
The Iowa Senate race is in some ways similar to the Senate contest in New Jersey this cycle. In the latter case, as I've noted before, Republicans have consistently bought into the notion that they can win statewide in the Garden State only to find themselves with several millions of dollars going to waste in a campaign that really was never winnable. Likewise, Republicans have looked at the fact that Harkin has never received more than 55 percent of the vote in a Senate race and that his approval rating is a not entirely impressive 52 percent and have tended to think that Harkin is vulnerable. History, however, has indicated that Harkin has not been terribly vulnerable, even in Republican leaning years -- which 2008 is unlikely to be.
Frankly, I'd love to see the Republicans invest heavily both in New Jersey and in Iowa in 2008, wasting dollars in these two states that could otherwise be used to defend the many endangered Republican incumbents around the country. In Iowa, in particular, it would be great to see King or even better Latham, whose district actually has a slight Democratic lean, run against Harkin, leaving either of their congressional districts open and thus more susceptible to be flipped by the Democrats in 2008. But, alas, if Yepsen is right, Harkin might not have the opportunity to dispatch yet another Republican Congressman next fall. Too bad.
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