Throughout my life, until 2006, I saw Republicans win election after election through a constant drumbeat of fear on a variety of issues. We all know the Republican fear litany: communists, terrorists, immigrants, brown people, gay people, atheists, drugs, urban crime, etc. No matter the year, and no matter the latest issue, Republicans have a tailor made, non-economic fear plank of their platform they can trot out in order to stoke the fires of
the battle of civilizations, and usually convince a majority of the country to vote against "those people." Starting in 1968, the Republican fear agenda has proven to be electoral gold time and time again.
However, starting in 2005, something interesting began to happen in this country that has, for two years, made the Republican fear agenda utterly ineffective at winning elections, moving poll numbers, or shaping the national consciousness in any meaningful way. Americans are still afraid, but the nature of that fear has shifted. Instead of being afraid of what Republicans have traditionally told people to be afraid of, now most people are just afraid of Republicans. The devastation that is Iraq is at the root of this fear, but the attempt to destroy Social Security, the Terry Schaivo affair, the nightmare that is and was Hurricane Katrina, the revelations that everyone is being spied on, the drumbeat to war with Iran, and increasing awareness of global warming--I think the last two years have combined to create a national mood where most Americans are literally afraid of the Republicans running their lives.
How else can you explain not a single, Democratic-held seat in the 2006 elections switching parties? That's never happened before. Even in 1994, Democrats took four Republican-held open seats. In 1994, people didn't like Democrats, and they might be afraid of some of the things Democrats supposedly represented, but they weren't
afraid of actual Democrats. After all, Democrats are supposedly wimps--how can you be afraid of geeky, weak, wishy-washy, pathetic Democrats? But people can be afraid of Republicans. They are supposed to be macho, and they promise to rule you like, in the words of Sideshow Bob, kings--or at least like the mean, uncaring and unfair father you don't like but still emulate anyway. And now they are doing just that, by listening to your phone calls with your friends, making you take part in activities you hate, spending your college tuition money, threatening to beat up the neighbors, harassing the gay couple on the block, stealing your porn, and trashing the yard you used to play in with a couple of big, ugly fences. You would be rightfully scared of a parent who acted that way.
The inspiration for this post came from the latest
Hotline / Diageo poll (PDF), which included the most comprehensive polling on national priorities of any poll this year. Leaving out issues of a directly economic nature, on which Democrats also currently dominate, check out what people describe as the main problem facing America without being prompted (the question was open-ended). I have broken the issues into two categories: longstanding Republican fearmongering issues, and generally newer issues that demonstrate fear of Republicans running the country:
Republican Fear Agenda
| Issue |
All Voters |
Democrats |
Independents |
Republicans |
| Immigration |
5% |
3% |
3% |
7% |
| Iraq War--Support |
4% |
2% |
4% |
6% |
| Terrorism |
3% |
0% |
3% |
7% |
| Religious decline |
2% |
1% |
3% |
2% |
| Crime |
2% |
2% |
3% |
2% |
| Moral Values |
1% |
0% |
0% |
3% |
| Gay Marriage |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
| Illegal Drugs |
0% |
0% |
0% |
1% |
| Abortion Pro-Life |
0% |
0% |
1% |
0% |
| Totals |
17% |
8% |
17% |
29% |
Fear Of Republicans Agenda
| Issue |
All Voters |
Democrats |
Independents |
Republicans |
| Iraq War--Oppose |
30% |
38% |
32% |
21% |
| Fear Of War |
9% |
9% |
8% |
8% |
| Environment |
2% |
3% |
2% |
1% |
| International problems |
2% |
2% |
3% |
1% |
| Abortion Pro-Choice |
1% |
1% |
0% |
1% |
| Totals |
44% |
53% |
45% |
32% |
That the number one issue--by a long, long way--is opposition to the Iraq War, and the number two issue is, quite literally,
fear of more war and fear in the country, says quite a bit. The Iraq war itself makes people almost twice as scared of Republicans than all of the things Republicans tell people to be afraid of combined. The Republican fear agenda isn't working because people have grown afraid of Republicans, not the things Republicans tell them to be afraid of. Stunningly, that is even the case among self-identified Republicans.
Right now, this is still just a thesis, and I need more data to back it up. However, I think there is something important taking place in the national psychology that no Democratic candidate for President has currently tapped into, but which could cement the potential realignment. Back in 2004, I think this is precisely what Howard Dean tapped into, while simultaneously projecting the sort of tough persona who would combat this strict parent run wild bullshit. His campaign did not succeed for a number of reasons, but that was not one of them. People are scared to death of Republicans in America, and if a Democratic figure can portray him or herself as a figure who can stand up to the lunatics running our lives while still appearing nurturing, then we could come very close to completing this realignment in 2008.
I am going to think about this some more. The country is awash in fear of Republican leaders, and providing a solution to that fear could very well be our ticket to a long-term Democratic majority.
