New Hotline/Diageo Poll

This is funny. In addition to the generic ballot questions Rob discusses below, among named candidates, in an open-ended poll, the combined Democrats lead 40-22 over the combined Republicans, including taking the top three. Democrats also lead 68-6 among Democrats, and 33-17 among Independents. Hell, Republicans only lead 48-14 among Republicans. That's right--not even half of Republicans can name a Republican they are ready to support. I particularly like the 1% of Republicans who say they want "a Democrat" in general. Basically, this poll tells us that the hard supporters are clearly in our favor right now--Chris

The new Hotline/Diageo poll shows Sen. Hillary Clinton with a 13 point lead over Sen. Barack Obama among Democrats and leading all candidates from both parties in an open end first choice poll. Clinton and Obama do the best among independents and are tied at 11% each. The most surprising figure in the poll is that 47% of all voters plan to vote for the Democratic nominee in 2008 compared to only 29% for the GOP nominee. 87% of Democrats plan to vote for nominee compared to only 71% of Republicans who indicated they plan to vote for the GOP nominee.

19. Thinking ahead to the election for president in 2008, who would you most like to see elected president? (OPEN-END, PRE-CODE)

TOTAL                                   Rep     Ind      Dem
Hillary Clinton               16%    5%     11%    29%
Barack Obama              10%    4%    11%    16%
John Edwards                 8%    3%      8%    12%
Rudy Giuliani                  7%   13%      7%      3%
John McCain                  6%    12%     5%      2%
Fred Thompson               3%      7%     1%      
Mitt Romney                     2%      4%      2%     *
Al Gore                           2%       1%     1%    4%
Newt Gingrich                 1%       3%      1%     -
Sam Brownback              1%        2%      -       -
Joe Biden                         *          -        1%    -
Jim Gilmore                       *         -           -    1%
Mike Huckabee                  
       1%        -      -
Dennis Kucinich                 *         *         1%   -
Tom Tancredo                    *         *         1%  -
"A Democrat"
(non-specific)                   4%      1%       1%   7%
"A Republican"
(non-specific)                    2%      6%        -      -
Undecided/haven't
decided yet                      18%     17%    25% 14%
Other (SPECIFY)                 1%      1%     -      1%
Wouldn't vote in election * * - *
Don't know/Refused            18%   19%    23%  11%

http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/07_Mar_ Data.pdf

Field Dates: March 29-April 1, 2007
Sample Size: 800 Registered Voters
Margin of Error: +/-3.5%
Note: Percentage less than 0.5 printed as *.



Display:


Nancy Pelosi Effect (none / 0)

We have a congress in session that delivered on their promise (100 hours) to get things done + I am curious if democratic party identification has anything to do with Nancy Pelosi effect??


.. and when I win the lottery, gonna donate half my money to the city so they have to name a school or a park after me - camper van beethoven
by heyAnita on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 04:01:24 AM EST

Re: New Hotline/Diageo Poll (none / 0)

How does this poll include Kucinich, Biden and Brownback but not Richardson?


New Mexico politics from the local perspective.
by fbihop on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 04:08:54 AM EST

Re: New Hotline/Diageo Poll (none / 0)

Open-ended question.  No one (well, no statistically signficant sample) volunteered Richardson's name.


by Adam B on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 12:15:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Hotline/Diageo Poll (none / 0)

At what point do candidates (or proxys) start talking about a brokered convention on Democratic side? With such massive front loading I can't see anyone being close to 50% of the delegates after Feb. 5.

I know polls show HRC as a second choice of many votes but I don't see Edwards or Obama delegates who are going to be overwhelmingly anti-war throwing their support over to Hillary Clinton.

I can see Edwards/Obama, Obama/Edwards, Edwards/_, or Obama/_ in a brokered convention - even if HRC has a plurality of delegates going in.


"Nothing seems to embarrass the political class today." - Bill Moyers
by joejoejoe on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 04:22:16 AM EST

Re: New Hotline/Diageo Poll (none / 0)

Currently Hillary Clinton leads virtually ALL state polls, except for perhaps Iowa (we genuinely don't know who has the upper hand there right now.)  Unless that changes to show a bunch of states in Obama's or Edwards' column to show us a fragmented picture for state polling there will not be a brokered election.   State polling is where the "marbles" are, not necessarily national polls.  

BTW, even when you look at national polling, the Cook poll was instrumental in showing that Clinton can get to 50% by herself, despite having 8 candidates in the field, just by taking Obama out of the equation.  


by georgep on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 09:45:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Current State Polls of CA (none / 0)

I am sure these polls will change over the next year. Last night, we had a gathering of about 25 community leaders at my home in Los Angeles.  These were people who follow politics closely. Obama, Edwards and Undecided each had 6-9 votes. Hillary had one and "someone else" had zero.  I have a feeling the numbers will shift to look more like that.


by exLogCabin on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 11:20:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Current State Polls of CA (none / 0)

Well, I guess we will see.  The numbers sure are lopsided in Clinton's favor, particularly in the big states like California, New York, Florida, Texas, etc.   It really matters most what individual voters think and pull the lever for, not what some community "leaders" somewhere believe.   I for one believe that as candidates fall by the wayside (outside of the top 3) Clinton's lead will grow in individual states, especially the "whale" states.   Only time will tell.  


by georgep on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 11:57:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Convention delegates (3.00 / 1)

...I know polls show HRC as a second choice of many votes but I don't see Edwards or Obama delegates who are going to be overwhelmingly anti-war throwing their support over to Hillary Clinton...

Inluded in the delegate mix are "superdelegates" - sitting members of Congress and the sitting governor (if they are in the Democratic Party) and "PLEO" [party leader/elected official] delegates (who are elected and committed to specofic candidates). On top of that, in my state, a certain number of delegates are elected at the congressional district level, with the remainder elected at the state convention. You don't get elected as a delegate in the latter venues by being a "one time charley" in my state - people who have demonstrated a sustained commitment to party politics (as a volunteer, activist, you name it) have a better chance of winning those delegate seats.

After all that, even as they are committed "anti-war" delegates, when it comes down to it on a subsequent ballot or on their release by their candidate on the first ballot, these delegates will factor in more than one issue in how the vote. Might they vote for Hillary Clinton at the convention under these circumstances? You can bet they will consider it.


543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 10:26:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Hotline/Diageo Poll (none / 0)

What's up with Diageo sponsoring a poll? Isn't it kind of weird to have a liquor company sponsoring a political poll?

Is MyDD selling naming rights to their polling? I'd like to see the Tastykake/MyDD poll. Delicious statistical measurment!


"Nothing seems to embarrass the political class today." - Bill Moyers
by joejoejoe on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 07:43:47 AM EST

Re: New Hotline/Diageo Poll (none / 0)

I'm half serious about the Tastycake/MyDD poll.

I think Quinnipiac polls became well known because of their odd name.


"Nothing seems to embarrass the political class today." - Bill Moyers
by joejoejoe on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 07:46:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: New Hotline/Diageo Poll (none / 0)

The weak support in the GOP base is what is surprising to me. In past elections they generally have been in lock step no matter who the nominee has been.


BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 12:40:03 PM EST


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