MyDD :: Romney On the Rise In New Hampshire

Romney On the Rise In New Hampshire

by Chris Bowers, Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 06:14:08 PM EST

The new Zogby poll out of New Hampshire makes me very, very happy:

4/2-4/3, 502 LVs, MoE 4.5% (1/17 numbers in parenthesis)
Romney: 25 (13)
McCain: 25 (26)
Giuliani: 19 (20)
F. Thompson: 6 (--)
Others: 10 (13)
Unsure: 17 (15)

Romney has not yet caught all the way up in other New Hampshire polls, even though he is still gaining. However, considering that this poll was taken entirely after the announcement of his huge first quarter fundraising, it suggests a further Romney bounce. I mean, we are talking bout Republicans here--why wouldn't they impressed to find out someone had a lot of money? I can see that swinging votes.

To get a better sense of why this poll strongly indicates McCain is practically finished in New Hampshire, consider the long term trends from ARG:

3/19/07-3/22/07, 600 LVs, MoE 4 (April 2006 numbers in parenthesis)
McCain: 23 (41)
Giuliani: 19 (13)
Romney: 17 (3)
Other / Unsure: 41 (42)

In eleven months, McCain's lead over Romney dropped from 38 points to 6 points. I am going to go out on a limb here, and argue that McCain currently does not have the momentum. Barring the entry of Fred Thompson, which could shake up the Republican field, I still expect the Republican nomination to come down to a battle between Giuliani and Romney. And, please God, let Romney win.

Tags: polls, Republicans, President 2008, New Hampshire (all tags)

Permalink :: 22 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Romney On the Rise In New Hampshire (none / 0)

TV ads are a factor too.

by blueflorida on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 06:20:03 PM EST

Re: Romney On the Rise In New Hampshire (none / 0)

Of course they are. But he has the money to spend on them.

by Chris Bowers on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 06:39:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Thats a pretty strong, safe limb (none / 0)

"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR

by jallen on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 06:30:04 PM EST

Romney weak in Iowa? (none / 0)

Not so much. New University of Iowa poll:

Forced-choice: More differentiation between candidates appeared among self-identified registered Republicans than among voters as a whole on this question. Giuliani led with 22.8 percent, followed closely by McCain with 21.2 percent. Romney trailed with 17.4 percent. Interestingly, 27.4 percent picked a Democrat, with 11.8 percent choosing Obama, while 11.2 percent were undecided.

http://news-releases.uiowa.edu/2007/apri l/040307poll.html

Jim Oberweis

by cilerder86 on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 06:31:40 PM EST

Re: Romney weak in Iowa? (none / 0)

As I noted, he hasn't caught up everywhere yet. However, the election is still a ways away, and the momentum is clearly on his side.

by Chris Bowers on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 06:38:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Romney weak in Iowa? (none / 0)

I'm impressed that he's competitive with the other two in Iowa. He had been in the middle single digits before.

Jim Oberweis

by cilerder86 on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 06:48:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Interesting article... (none / 0)

on Romney (and Obama and Gore) in the new 01238 magazine -- an independent Harvard alum periodical -- that provides some insight into his bio.

Unfortunately, the web site 01238mag.com is not up, yet...

What's the Point?

by Vermonter on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 06:31:43 PM EST

I have to admit (none / 0)

Funny and astute as this "Go Mitt!" stuff is, I have to confess a bit of nervousness about it. I seem to remember a time that left-wingers were hoping Bush would beat McCain to the 2000 nomination because they thought he would be easier to beat... :O

by Silent sound on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 06:56:38 PM EST

Re: I have to admit (none / 0)

They were right. :)

by Chris Bowers on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 07:06:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Erk (none / 0)

...I walked right into that one.

by Silent sound on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 07:27:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Well, now that you mention it. (3.00 / 0)

Gore would probably have "lost" by a bigger margin if he ran against McCain, but I don't think the results would have been as disastrous. Plus, think about it, he'd be thirsting for revenge on Karl Rove and the rest of the Bush Cronies for all the personal smears, just like how he used his post as the Chairman of the Indian Affairs committee to go after Jack Abramhoff.

McCain in 2000 would have been much, much better for the country then Bush in 2000. McCain might have been a conservative, but he was at least competent.

McCain in '08 is just a sad joke though. He got stuck, like a lot of people, on the wrong side of history.

Guiliani is an unabashed authoritarian, and a thin-skinned petty tyrant. He'd be a disaster.

I actually hope that Romney gets the nomination. Not only is he probably more easily beatable then Guiliani and McCain in the general, but I think the other two would be worse for the country if, god forbid, our nominee doesn't win.

by delmoi on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 07:58:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Well, now that you mention it. (3.00 / 0)

McCain probably wouldn't have had a pathological fixation on doing the exact opposite of what Clinton did, so he probably wouldn't have ignored his CIA briefing and counter-terrorism czar when they told him about an impending attack.

by Gpack3 on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 12:03:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I have to admit (3.00 / 0)

Romney concerns me too. He is youthful and telegenic (compared to McCain and the mayor)and has no difficulty with different positions on the issues.
While polls show that his religion will hurt him it also has to be considered that it could very well help him too. The Church of Jesus of Latter-day Saints is now the 4th largest church in the United States with nearly 6 million members and that could be a very potent ground force for him in all 50 states.

The first eyebrow raising thing about Romney that caught my attention was when he was able to attract 800 movers and shakers to a fundraiser in Mississippi. None of the other GOP candidates have been able to get fundraisers that large in some of the Deep South states.

BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog

by robliberal on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 07:34:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

good points (3.00 / 0)

I think his "capable manager" routine would play well in the mainstream media too.

I have a brother who has never voted Republican for president, and he's been voting since 1976. He has long said that if Hillary is the nominee, he will write in a candidate for president. He would vote for any other Democrat against any Republican.

My brother is now saying that if Hillary ran against Romney, he would consider voting for Romney rather than writing in a candidate, because at least Romney knows how to run things. This worries me.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 10:47:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Romney On the Rise In New Hampshire (none / 0)

Before everyone goes all Apeshit for Romney, spend some time with Taylor Marsh:

http://www.taylormarsh.com/tag_results.p hp?displayTag=Mitt%20Romney

by lectric lady on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 07:10:34 PM EST

Re: Romney On the Rise In New Hampshire (none / 0)

According to a friend involved in GOP Christian circles, people like Romney (or at least are warming to him). One activist leader according to this GOP person claims that they expect Romney to win. Who knows if any of this is true.

by bruh21 on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 07:12:33 PM EST

Re: Romney On the Rise In New Hampshire (none / 0)

Romney may have flip flopped on the social issues but the really scary thing is how empty he seems on everything else. He's got a resume similar to George W. Bush's with a big difference: he's either a lot smarter or worked a lot harder or both. Governor (one term), prep school, Harvard Business School (but he finished in the top 5% of his class). Where Bush ran a Texas oil company into a dry hole, Romney ran a venture capital company to great results and saved the parent management consulting company with a stint as CEO. He's also got a Harvard Law degree.

My theory is that once he got into the governor's job Mitt started running for President by disavowing the stands that elected him in the first place.

I like his real first name better than the middle name he uses: Willard. The master rat, indeed. (Named for family friend Willard Marriott of the hotel chain, seriously rich, indeed).

by David Kowalski on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 07:29:55 PM EST

That's good (none / 0)

Frankly, while I don't like Romney, he seems to be the least evil of the republican frontrunners. He's not credible on social issues one way or the other, but unlike McCain and Guiliani he seems like a run of the mill egomaniac, as opposed to a power-worshiping authoritarian.

by delmoi on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 07:51:03 PM EST

Re: Romney On the Rise In New Hampshire (none / 0)

I remember in 2002 when Democrats in Massachusetts underestimated Romney. We thought that after a long run of horrible Republican governors with more than a foot out the door, there would be no way that a liberal state like MA would elect such a creep whose residence was in question anyway.

Look, while Mitt was Governor here, he was either ineffective because the legislature overrode him, or incompetent (see the Big Dig Tunnel collapse). Frankly, though, he is a very, very smart politician and I wouldn't underestimate him.

by afertig on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 12:25:32 AM EST

Re: Romney On the Rise In New Hampshire (none / 0)

Well, we'll see. I'm still skeptical that he can get past the Mormon thing with evangelicals.

by rikyrah on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 12:46:55 AM EST

With Rudy advocating public abortions, it won't (none / 0)

matter much. Someone has to win that thing.

by Cyt on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 02:44:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Romney On the Rise In New Hampshire (none / 0)

this is the Massachusetts effect, republican version. what impact is this likely to have on the national picture?

by 2liberal on Fri Apr 06, 2007 at 01:24:44 PM EST

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