Democrats Seize Fundraising Advantage

For decades, Republicans have been able to swamp Democrats in terms of fundraising for federal elections. While I would still prefer publicly financed federal elections, the new Democratic advantage represents a fundamental shift in the balance of electoral power in this country. From the Politico:
According to preliminary fundraising numbers released by the campaigns this week, the combined Democratic field raised about $80 million, compared with roughly $50 million collected by their GOP adversaries.

In 1999, the last presidential race without an incumbent in the race, Republicans raised $33 million in the first quarter, compared with $13 million by the Democrats, according to the Campaign Finance Institute. The disparity was also evident in 1988, when the Republican field reported $19 million in first-quarter fundraising, compared with $3 million by the Democrats.(...)

The lag in donations extends beyond the presidential field. The Republican National Committee is expected to report $25 million in first-quarter revenue later this month. Last year, the RNC raised $32 million in the same quarter.

And in 2003, the start of the last presidential cycle, it collected $29 million.

The Democratic National Committee hasn't caught, or surpassed, the RNC, which has long been the political fundraising giant. Still, the DNC has reported raising more than $14 million in the first quarter - a $6 million increase over the same quarter in 2003.
In 1988, Republicans held a 6-1 advantage in early presidential fundraising. To a certain extent this gap did not matter, because no candidate was able to raise enough money to ditch the public financing system. In 1999, the gap had closed to about 5-2, but the problem was actually much worse since George Bush was able to ditch the public financing system and put Al Gore is a serious hole from March through August. Now, eight years later, with the nominees of both parties certain to ditch public financing limits for at least the primary election (Obama and McCain have a public financing deal for the general), Democrats hold a stunning 8-5 edge. It now looks very likely that we will have more money for the presidential election than will Republicans, which presents us with a noticeable structural advantage in the general from which we have never before benefited, and against which we have typically experienced the opposite end. This advantage will also free up the DNC to continue a focus on the fifty-state strategy and down-ticket campaigns. Under Terry McAuliffe, the DNC functioned almost entirely as a surrogate to the Democratic campaign for President, and we did not do well in the congressional elections of either 2002 or 2004.

It should be noted that the increase in fundraising for Democrats is not just due to an increase in small donors. The provision in McCain Feingold that raised the hard-money donation limit for individuals from $1,000 to $2,000 (and now $2,300) was a bit of a dirty bomb that has effectively muted the new explosion of small donors. Certainly, there are committees such as the DNC which did not previously rely on small donors and are now benefiting from it tremendously, and there are many isolated examples of underground, insurgent campaigns using small donors a either key to victory or at least a surprisingly strong showing, but overall the demographics of the donor class have not changed much. For example, only about 25-30% of the $80M Democratic 2008ers raised came from small donors, which is not a big change from Al Gore's donor demographics in 1999-2000. The current Democratic increase is coming just as much from large donors who give $2,300 as it is coming from anywhere else. On the one hand, this can be taken as a sign that the increase of progressive activism these past four years has infected progressive activists of all income levels, which is good. On the other hand, this might create roadblocks for us as we move down the path of economic populism, and I am not talking about merely an "image" problem. Will our candidates "owe" large donors more than in the past?

Whatever the answer to those questions may be, I admit that I enjoy no longer facing a financial deficit to Republicans on the electoral front. Then again, and I am really not whining when I write this, another article today reminds me of just how ironic these online fundraising totals can be...



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Re: Democrats Seize Fundraising Advantage (3.00 / 2)

I'm thinking Obama's deal with McCain is going to eliminate a potentially huge advantage Obama would have had.


Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.
by Fran for Dean on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 02:11:55 PM EST

Differemt donor profiles (3.00 / 1)

Each of the three major Dems has a very different donor base.

Obama averaged $138 from his 50K online donors (the highest), and $362 from his 50K offline donors. I believe he cites 90% of contributions under $100 (though some may be contributing twice).

Edwards averaged around $80 from his 30K online donors and $1070 from his 10K offline donors. He cites 80% of contributions under $100.

Clinton ... it's unclear. But it's likely that her online donations are somewhere between Obama's & Edwards, which means she averaged $100 from 40K online donors and $2080 from 10K offline donors. She's probably around 70% of contributions under $100.

It is hard to tell from just these few numbers ... we will need the full 4/15 filings ... but it looks like Obama's campaign has more low dollar contributions, and has a lot of contributions from people who couldn't or wouldn't max out, but could give $250 or $500. It's possible that Obama has as much as 40% of his money coming from low dollar donors, and Edwards as much as 30%. We'll have to wait and see.


by niq on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 02:14:09 PM EST

Gore's small donor percentages (none / 0)

Chris, unless I'm reading that link to Gore's donor breakdown wrong only 10% of his donations were under $200 ie. small donations. How can you say that's not much different from the 25% - 30% you're quoting for today?

Two and half to three times as much seems like a pretty big difference to me.


by Quinton on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 05:39:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Democrats Seize Fundraising Advantage (3.00 / 1)

Unfortunately Democrats seem to spend their money much less efficiently than Republicans.  The Republican campaign consultants presumably wait for the payoff when their guy gets elected, whereas the Democratic consultants treat the whole campaign as one big gravy train.


by Taylor26 on Thu Apr 05, 2007 at 09:05:24 PM EST


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