Post-Vilsack Iowa Polls
| Candidate |
Mean |
SV, 4/1 (R) |
U of Iowa, 3/31 |
Zogby, 3/26 |
ARG, 3/22 |
| Edwards |
30.3 |
27 |
34 |
27 |
33 |
| Clinton |
26.8 |
19 |
29 |
25 |
34 |
| Obama |
19.5 |
20 |
19 |
23 |
16 |
Post-Elizabeth Edwards Announcement New Hampshire Polls
| Candidate |
Mean |
Zogby, 4/3 |
CNN, 4/2 |
| Clinton |
28 |
29 |
27 |
| Edwards |
22 |
23 |
21 |
| Obama |
21.5 |
23 |
20 |
Gore-less national polls, 3/20-present (six poll mean)
Clinton: 36.7
Obama: 26.0
Edwards: 18.5
Other / Unsure: 18.8
(Note: two polls only included three candidates (CBS, Time); four polls included all announced candidates (Rasmussen, Zogby, Gallup, Democracy Corps). Source for polls here and here)
Ladies and gentlemen, we have a competitive primary campaign. With today's new that Obama equaled Clinton in terms of primary fundrasing and, more importantly, generated a truly remarkable 100,000+ donors to his campaign, the horserace tightens further. It now seems likely that Obama will at least equal, and possibly surpass, Clinton in terms of available cash for the primary season. We have close early sate polls, tightening national polls, and a frontrunner who does not have an advantage in terms of resources. It was not long ago that Clinton was the equal of Obama and Edwards combined. Now, no matter which metric you look at, that is clearly no longer the case.
Right now, my advice to all three campaigns would be the same: schedule two weeks of broadcast network television ads in both Iowa and New Hampshire, set to run at the beginning of May. I am not a huge believer in the value of such ads, and I would not recommend running any more ads until at least the fall, but with both early states clearly tight, shifting your numbers by five or ten points would be huge. Clinton could re-establish her lead in Iowa, and her solid lead in New Hampshire. Obama could forge a three-way tie in Iowa, and take the lead in New Hampshire. Edwards could build a big lead in Iowa, and--this would be a huge shocker that would fundamentally change the race--quite possibly the lead in New Hampshire. Any of those moves would change the national media narrative surrounding the campaign. While expensive, all three campaigns, especially Obama, clearly have a lot of money to spare. It is even the sort of buzz that could end up generating more in terms money that it costs.
Exciting times ahead. Already, we have massive rallies, over 200,000 donors, big momentum changes--the energy we will see over the next nine months will break all records.
