You are suggesting that Obama's wide donor base is the result of a pre-existing establishment network, and not the online social network?

I do find it hard to believe that many 18-25 year-olds are actually donating or otherwise participating. I say this as someone who has just barley grown out of that demo.
But certainly some portion of his facebook/myspace supporters do support him in tangible ways - just hard to say how many.

"but I would argue GWB and his war has had a much greater impact on getting people involved politically."

I tend to agree with that. And who are they looking to for an alternative? Obama.

Obama stated himself that his campaign were registering those folks...And in my opinion, if you are willing to go see a candidate under frigid weather and rainy days, why won't you go vote for him...Let's remember that everyone that attends Obama's rallies  are heavily tapped..What i mean by that is, they have hundreds of workers working the crowds and taking addresses, phone numbers and registering them..Also, to go to an oabama $25 campaign raally, you have to give your address and phone number...All those people are in Obama's donor list..This is why is donor list is so large and he's able to tap it not only for money, but to recruit vvolunteer etc etc...

In Middle TN in 2004, we registered upwards of 50,000 new voters.  Of those new voters 75-80$% voted (depending on county).  I think you are using an old model in your predictions concerning who will and won't vote.  Those percentages, by the way, I got straight from the mouths of the county election administrators (and their post-election reports).

Kerry had 475k in his donor list during "the primary race"????...That's B.S...Maybe he had it for the general including the amount of money you stated...or it could be long after everyone knew he would be the nominee, but there's no way in the world kerry had that much support during the start of the primary...Obama is the only candidate to get that much support so early on and he's still growing it, but not in the primary battle.

Whoever the democrats is, will probably get on board "every single democrtic donors"...Right now, they are taking side and Obama is ready to surpass the amount of donors Dean had during the '04 entire primary process and we're not even deep in Q2 period yet.

3 out of 15 voting can be expected amongst a group of people going to see a presidential candidate speak? I think not.

Let me be clear, these were people who didn't care about politics. These are people who are attending local and on-campus meetings to find out how they can help the Obama campaign. These are people who suddenly have become excited about what's happening in politics and government.

Do you know what they're not excited about? The rest of the Democrats... and BLOGS. As much as I've talked up the blogosphere and tried to tear down the MSM, they still don't give a shit.

I don't know what crowds you were in, but I don't recall John Kerry or any other candidate having crowds of 10 - 20k.

Maybe Clinton and Edwards shiny new blogrolls will get them some extra votes, but somehow, I doubt it.

I was wondering if you'd notice that comment.  I remember it well, and to explain why, I'll tell a story, if you'll indulge me.  (I think the thread is mostly dead anyway)

Maybe put this in the "Some Cliches Are True" file, I think there is a "gay," sort of exaggeratedly feminine, persona that is universal in human society.  I dont mean to imply that I think all gays act in a stereotypical way, but some gay men do, and I have seen it all over the world.  

It first occurred to me that it was a constant thing in human culture in college.  My roommate was really flaming, and when we were college roommates, I was had to translate Lysistrata, an ancient Greek play written like 430BC.  One of the characters was an effeminate man, (mocked in staunchly bisexual ancient Athens, not for having sex with men, but for "acting gay.")  It was hard to translate his lines, until I realized that he was written with an ancient Greek lisp, just like the lisp my roommate had, and Dana Carvey had in that SNL skit, the Effeminate Heterosexual.  

I just assumed it was mostly a western culture thing, but it definately transcends that.  And it seems to be unrelated to the actual behavior of women in society.  I mean, I have seen it in the middle east, where I never saw a woman act that "gay."  I also saw it in asia and polynesia.  I remember a Samoan boy living on a small island who constantly played with a bright silk scarf, and was totally "gay."

So in the Amazon jungle, I work with a group that develops public health infrastructure, and one time I was in an indian village way up some little tributary, to identify vaccination needs.  One boy, maybe 15 stood out, because he had the identical persona.  This was a kid who never went shopping, saw TV, or ever used an electric light bulb, and man, he was just flaming gay.  I noticed that none of the women in the village acted like he did.  

Well, being an indigenos teenager, he didn't have a lot of opportunity to show off his gayness, but as Nathan Lane said in the 'BirdCage' : "One does want a hint of color."  So he had caught and hand-reared a parrot chick, and wore it like an accessory.  It was a memorable image, a village of Amazonian indians, with very subdued and quiet men and women, totally upstaged by a "gay" teenage boy, wearing a vivid emerald green and peach parrot.  

I did actually see a "tree full of parrots," but to be honest, it didnt strike me as particularly gay.  But that kid, with a literal limp wrist, lisp, and drama queen stance in the middle of jungle, was about the gayest thing I ever saw.  

Again, I dont mean to come off sounding dismissive or to stereotype people, but when you said that you were "gay as a tree full of parrots," I could not get that image out of my mind.

But the fact is that soccor moms are not going to vote for someone they view as soft, and college students are not going to vote in large enough numbers to carry the day by themselves.

He said it, I didn't.   Obama is a big boy.  He needs to live by his words.  According to him he may do something if or cities are hit.  Or he may just "hope" we don't get hit again.

Obama has matched Hillary vote for vote in the Senate.  He is not even as anti-war as Edwards or Richardson, let alone Kucinich or Gravel.  Even Hillary has made a stronger statement about ending the war if elected.

Obama has not said he will end the war if elected.  He dances around it with "we are one signature away", etc.

Where is anyone disregarding SC?  Quite the opposite is true.

And what do you mean ALL the polling?  Only one poll has come out so far, and it was not of likely Democratic primary voters, but all registered voters, which makes it virtually worthless to our discussion.