California primary poll analysis - Clinton 38%, Obama 19%, Edwards 17%

Clinton 38%
Obama 19%
Edwards 17%
Richardson 4%
Biden 4%

Caveat is that this poll is of course a pre-debate poll.

http://www.workingcalifornians.com/story /analysis_of_ca_primary_voters_survey_de mocratic_horse_race

The 19% differential is the largest lead Clinton has had since primary polling began in California.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_pol ling_for_the_Democratic_Party_%28United_ States%29_presidential_primaries%2C_2008 #California

Clinton has led in the previous 5 polls conducted in the state, but it is obvious that her lead in California has been growing steadily since polling began in January.  This poll also serves to confirm the last 2 polls conducted (first week of April Survey USA showed a 17% Clinton lead, up to then the largest recorded gap between Clinton and Obama) and the Field Poll before that (March 20-21) showed her lead at 13%.

Some interesting and perhaps somewhat contradictory findings:

Clinton's lead is slightly greater (41%) among those paying very close attention to the primary, while Edwards and Obama tie for second place with 18% each. However, among those paying only somewhat close attention, Clinton's support slips slightly to 36% while Obama's support jumps to 25%, and Edwards receives 16%. Democratic primary voters who are not closely following the election are the least supportive of Obama, offering him just 13% of their vote, compared to 38% to Clinton and 17% to Edwards.

My analysis:  Clinton's support grows to 41% amongst the data group of folks paying VERY close attention to the primary. She gains 3% over her general polling averages.   Amongst that highly engaged group Obama actually loses 1% (to 18%) while Edwards gains 1% (to 18%.)   The more folks are paying attention, the more likely they are to vote for Clinton, as per this poll.   The secondary group is the group that pays "somewhat close attention."  This group is not very engaged but somewhat interested.  Here Clinton still leads the pack, but she slips to 36% support, Obama's jumps to 25%, Edwards loses a couple (is at 16%.)   The "somewhat" engaged group is Obama's strongest, this is where he gets much more than his support average.   Amongst those least engaged Clinton gets 38%, Obama drops to 13%, Edwards is at 17%.     So, the more engaged folks are, the more likely they are to go for Clinton, the "somewhat" group is more Obama friendly, and the currently least interested group is at about the same level as the averaging of all 3 groups.    That would explain why in many polls Obama's support is shown to be somewhat softer than both Clinton's and Edwards'.  It seems that he gets a good chunk of not fully (or very) but somewhat engaged folks to his side, support that seems to fall off somewhat the more engaged polled individuals become.  

Another data point:

"While Senator Clinton is almost universally known among California Democratic primary voters, with firm impressions established in voters' minds, her opponents have room for growth. Among voters paying very close attention to the presidential primary, Clinton is viewed favorably by 77%; she is equally popular (79%) among those paying somewhat close attention, and drops significantly in favorability (63%) among those not paying close attention, though she does maintain her name identification at 94% or higher across all three segments. Obama is known by 90% of those paying close attention, and viewed favorably by 73%; among those paying somewhat close attention, 80% know him and 69% like him; among those not paying close attention, just 59% have heard of him and 45% are favorable towards him. Edwards is known by 83% of those paying close attention to the presidential primary, but known by just 69% of those not paying close attention. He is viewed favorably by 72% of those paying very close attention, 66% of those paying somewhat close attention, and 56% of those not paying close attention."

Again, we have a similar theme.  The engaged poll respondent (either VERY engaged or SOMEWHAT engaged) tends to view Clinton very favorably (77% and 79% respectively) whereas amongst those not paying close attention her favorability drops to 63%.   This (and the previous data point) suggests that low-info and low-interest respondents are less likely to support Clinton, but are more likely to do so the more they pay attention to the primaries.    The good news for Clinton here is that it appears that as voters become more engaged, they also become more Clinton-friendly.  If the person remains low-interest throughout (which usually also means low-info) that person is is also the least likely to then show up on primary day to vote.  In that scenario her somewhat sharp drop amongst low-interest-in-the-primaries respondents does then not become a factor.  

Next data point:

The race is far more competitive among voters who are familiar with all three top-tier candidates. Among these voters, Clinton's total drops to 34%, while Obama's support increases to 24% and Edwards' support rises to 20%; just 10% of these most knowledgeable voters are undecided. This provides further evidence that part of Senator Clinton's lead is based on her higher name recognition, an advantage that could disappear as primary day approaches.

The race becomes somewhat more competetive when all 3 candidates are known, but still a double-digit lead.  We don't know the makeup of this particular grouping as for "engagement," which may explain the apparent contradiction here.  From a previous data point we know that the very interested/involved/engaged group shows Clinton her strongest support of all groups, yet should that highly involved group not also automatically know all 3 Democratic candidates?  
I tend to believe that Engagement and interest trumps "knowledge" of the candidates, thus the advantage Clinton has amongst those very engaged in the primary process weighs heavier (and her favorability as high as it is amongst the two "engaged" groups,) which makes her California lead quite formidable.  Still, this data point is something that bears watching for her camp.  While her lead in California has grown over the last 2 months, Edwards and Obama are both relatively strong candidates who bring something to the table and have a strong following.  The California race is not "over" by any means, and nobody is invoking the dreaded "inevitability" theme.   Still, IMO at this point Clinton has to be considered the odds-on favorite to win this state on February 5, 2008.  

Issues:

Clinton beats Edwards and Obama on all 5 issues polled.  Those issues are Jobs, Environment, Education, Healthcare and Iraq.

Jobs:   Clinton 45%, Obama 17%, Edwards 24%

Not surprisingly, Edwards does better than Obama with those who stated jobs as one of their two most important issues.

Environment:  Clinton 32%, Obama 31%, Edwards 12%

For some reason Obama has apparently captured some of the enviromental buzz.   Both Clinton and Edwards are doing relatively poorly here (relative to their overall polling.)

Education:  Clinton 43%, Obama 15%, Edwards 12%

A big advantage for Clinton on education.  Both Obama and Edwards are faring badly in this category.

Healthcare:  Clinton 38%, Obama 17%, Edwards 17%

Strong advantage for Clinton.  Edwards does not do well here, despite (or perhaps partly because of) his health care proposal already out there.  

Iraq:   Clinton 38%, Obama 21%, Edwards 19%

Again, a fairly strong advantage for Clinton on this issue.  Basically, this goes to the question of who is most trusted to be best for "what to do" with Iraq, and apparently, past votes make no discernible difference, neither Obama's non-support of the Iraq war (caveat:  Obama was not on the national scene yet,) nor Clinton's or Edwards' AUMF vote and subsequent followups.  

If Clinton can maintain these strong impressions that she would be a good fit for voter's Education, Healthcare, Jobs, and Security needs, she will be the candidate to beat.  

Some more data internals in the poll.  Please use the link to the poll.



Display:


Clinton 38%, Obama 19%, Edwards 17% (none / 0)

I just wanted to be the first to post the comment that Hillary rocks.


by samueldem on Fri Apr 27, 2007 at 02:48:36 AM EST

Thoughts (none / 0)

Finally a more substansive polling diary from you. Odd how the support numbers jump back and forth oddly between paying a lot of attention, some attention and not much attention.

Noted that Edwards has stronger favorables amongst groups than Obama does.

Surprised that Obama has such good numbers on the environment when he's been getting some heat from environmental groups due his support for liquifed coal, which is not at all clean. Based on what each has laid out there so far Edwards would seem like the better choice on the environment.

Glad to see that Edwards gets his dues on the jobs question and other than that he and Obama are pretty much neck and neck on all the other issues (Edwards slightly down on education) and neck and neck in who people plan to support in the primary.

Surprised to see Biden and Richardson are tied at 4%.


by Quinton on Fri Apr 27, 2007 at 02:52:20 AM EST

Re: Thoughts (none / 0)


Obama is the plurality (27%) second choice candidate, suggesting he has the ability to pick up votes as other candidates falter or are winnowed out of the process. Twenty percent (20%) say Edwards would be their second choice, with Clinton at 17%; nearly a quarter (23%) would be undecided if their first choice were not running.

Both Edwards and Obama capture more second choice votes of candidates that drop out, this will boost their numbers relative to Hillary's.


Obama is even more strongly favored as the second choice candidate by those who feel they are falling behind the cost of living (32%); Edwards captures just 20% of their second-choice support and Clinton 17%.

These should be Edwards' natural voters and I feel as his economic plans get more play in CA they will break more in his favor. I wish the poll broke things down into rural, urban, suburban and exburbs as I'd consider rural voters who feel they are falling behind economically would break more heavily in Edwards' favor.


Clinton's dominance in the horserace may be partly due to her significant advantage in name recognition: 96% of California's Democratic primary voters know Clinton, whereas nearly 20 points fewer (77%) have clear impressions of Obama and Edwards...

...

Although Clinton is better known and has higher overall favorables, Obama and Edwards are better liked among voters who know them. Whereas Clinton's average favorability rating (a figure which takes into account both the direction and intensity of feeling) is 3.04 (slightly above somewhat favorable), Edwards' average among those who know him is 3.15 and Obama's is 3.13.

So, Clinton has 20% higher name id than Edwards and Obama, but amongst voters who know them Clinton has lower favorables than Obama and Edwards (who has the best score by just a tad). Seems like there is a lot of room for Edwards and Obama to grow based on this alone.


Clinton's candidacy is resonating with the least economically advantaged voters in California. Her support is particularly strong among those who believe that they are falling behind the cost of living (43%), compared to 19% supporting Obama and 15% supporting Edwards. Those who feel they are just keeping even with the cost of living also strongly prefer Clinton (38%) over Obama (17%) and Edwards (18%).

Again wish there was a break down for rural, urban, etc. and racial demographics on this one. People who feel they are falling behind or struggling to stay where they are ought both be Edwards' natural base (especially those in rural areas). Again, I feel these voters will break more in Edward's favor after they hear more from him on poverty, education, housing and job creation.


Likewise, Clinton performs very strongly among lower and working class voters, capturing a majority (50%) of their support, compared to 18% backing Obama and 9% supporting Edwards. Non-college educated middle class voters also prefer Clinton (44%) to Obama (19%) and Edwards (14%). The race tightens dramatically among college-educated middle class voters, where Clinton's 26% is much closer to Obama and Edwards' 19% apiece. Upper and upper-middle class voters give Clinton a bit more of a cushion, but the race is still competitive: 34% support Clinton, while 23% favor Edwards and 22% favor Obama.

The college-educated middle class and Upper and upper-middle class voter numbers are about what I'd expect - good sized lead by Clinton and Obama and Edwards are bunched close together. The lower and working class voter numbers look absolutely awful on their face for both Edwards and Obama. Would a large block of that vote be minorities (african-american and hispanic)? How much of this groups support for Hillary is very soft and mostly based around "Hey, we know her and man things were much better for us under Bill! And he was the first black president after all!" She's a safe name to say now and her association with Bill gives them the warm and fuzzies. If these numbers don't shift dramatically in favor of Edwards and Obama then they will probably have real troubles making up ground on Hillary.


Similarly, educational attainment provides one of the strongest cleavages in the electorate: Clinton is favored by 60% of voters with high school degrees or less, just 11% of whom support Obama and 8% support Edwards. Voters with college degrees or post-graduate study are split, giving a slim advantage to Clinton (26%) over Obama (23%) and Edwards (21%).

College degree/post-graduate study numbers are about what I'd expect - actually Hillary's lead is a bit less than I expected - and the high school degree or less numbers are same as the lower and working class voters above.

Hillary has the lead for now, but anayalsis of the numbers makes it clear that CA is very much in play - I'd argue especially so for Edwards. If his message is going to resonate at all it's going to do so most with the sub-group demographics I pointed out. Seems Hillary isn't so well positioned for the long-term in this whale of all delegate whale states you always mention.


by Quinton on Fri Apr 27, 2007 at 03:34:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thoughts (none / 0)

Also strikes me that along with a break down along rural, urban, suburban, exburb and racial lines it would be great to see the break down amongst union members.


by Quinton on Fri Apr 27, 2007 at 03:35:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Thoughts (none / 0)

"Finally a more substansive polling diary from you."

Hey, when there is a lot of data that comes with a poll, it makes for an opportunity to analyze.   Other major polls are published with just the horse race numbers and no internals.  I usually try to follow up with deeper analysis when internals are published a few days later (if they are.)  

Good in-depth analysis of some of the other numbers, btw.  I agree that there is time for things to turn around in Cali for Obama and Edwards, but of course Clinton also has an opportunity to solidify her numbers.   As the candidates focus strongly on states like Iowa and New Hampshire it leaves the Feb. 5 states in somewhat of a freeze, which does not bode well for those trying to catch up in a poll.  A state like California can be turned around, but for that to happen it has to be criss-crossed and a lot of time has to be spent in that state.   The same is true for states like Texas, Florida, etc.   The candidates can't be everywhere at all times, which makes it hard coming from behind in some of these larger states.  The best hope for Edwards and Obama is that Clinton's national horserace numbers crater badly and become a factor in some of the larger states.  

 I think, given the fact that her polling advantage has grown dramatically over the last two months, her advantage appears formidable and solid.  Yes, Obama and Edwards will of course be active, but so will Clinton.    She could score better with environmental activists down the road as her various environmental proposals get more play while, as you mentioned, folks may realize that Obama has made a couple of announcements perhaps not as much in tune with die-hard environmentalists after all.  She also needs to do better with the "college-educated" middle class voter.  

The data suggests that the more folks focus on the primaries,  the better she does (so far.)   Yes, there is a difference in name ID, but as both Obama and Edwards become as well known as Clinton not all of that will translate into positive support, it will be more of a split.  

I seriously doubt Clinton can continue to grow her support as dramatically as she has done since January.  This 19% advantage over Obama is probably the high watermark.   But, given her strong advantage on the issues jobs, healthcare, education and Iraq it would really take a dramatic reversal for things to change decisively over the next seven months.   I don't see either Obama or Edwards with the capability to convince as many voters as are needed to make that dramatic a shift.   There is still time left, but it is running out soon.   Candidates don't have until Christmas to make impressions in these big states.  My research into state-polling history suggests that candidate support in the ten largest states is usually set quite solidly by the end of summer, that numbers don't jump around much anymore in these states after September, unless something very dramatic happens (perhaps a major mistake, a major verbal gaffe.)  


by georgep on Fri Apr 27, 2007 at 09:49:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California primary poll analysis (none / 0)

California will be the most important 2/5 primary result and is a must win for Obama to balance the probable losses to HRC in New Jersey and Florida.  


Our Moment Is Now
by mboehm on Fri Apr 27, 2007 at 06:44:56 AM EST

Re: California primary poll analysis (none / 0)

My question to the Clinton Supporters:

If Hillary loses IA,NH,NV and SC:

Will she still be able to win the nomination and will she still win the big states of FL, TX and CA?

I am interested in your opinions and logic of whether she can or cannot.


by BDM on Fri Apr 27, 2007 at 09:48:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If .... If .... If (none / 0)

If she loses all 4 she is in trouble.  I doubt she wins all 4.  I doubt she loses all 4.


by dpANDREWS on Fri Apr 27, 2007 at 11:08:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: California primary poll analysis (none / 0)

She can't lose all four.  That suggests that she cratered badly everywhere else, at which point her candidacy has most likely failed.

 If she wins one and places second in two more she is well positioned for the the two big dates on 1/29 and 2/5, when most delegates are handed out.  


by georgep on Fri Apr 27, 2007 at 11:24:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

This is sad (none / 0)

Since polls suggest that Clinton would perform poorly against Giuliani, while Edwards would probably beat him.


by kingsbridge77 on Fri Apr 27, 2007 at 12:03:14 PM EST

Re: California primary poll analysis (none / 0)

You're right that with the focus on the early states (especially for Edwards for whom they are especially critical and who has the least money to throw around) it's tough for Hillary's opponents to spend the required time and funds in the big states to really move things. They're just going to have to work hard to pick their battles.

We'll see what happens as the shine comes off her inevivitabilty meme, her national primary numbers continue to slip, others do better in general election match ups (especially in swing states), and her numbers slip in the primary for particular large states where Edwards or Obama put particular effort in to move the numbers.

What comes down to in the CA primary is that I don't think that these numbers in particular are going to hold for Hillary. Even without a large investment of time by Edwards and Obama criss-crossing the state, these numbers will naturally deteriorate for Hillary and even more so when a hard play is made for them by her opponents.

Falling behind cost of living supporters:

Hillary: 43%
Obama:     19%
Edwards: 15%

Just keeping pace with cost of living supporters:

Hillary: 38%
Edwards: 18%
Obama:   17%

Lower and working class voters:

Hillary: 50%
Obama:   18%
Edwards:  9%

High school degrees or less:

Hillary: 60%
Obama:   11%
Edwards:  8%

There's no way that Hillary can manage to hold what must be soft support (to be that high considering the others platforms and strengths) amongst lower and working class workers (50%) and high school degrees or less (60%). She's going to lose signifigant whacks of both groups to Edwards and Obama. Yet again, I wish there were geographic, racial and union/non-union breakdowns for us to dig into.


by Quinton on Fri Apr 27, 2007 at 05:01:09 PM EST

Hillary Will Hang Onto California (none / 0)

Leading Californians Endorse Clinton
Hillary to Address California State Convention Tomorrow

Hillary Clinton received the endorsements of two dozen prominent California officials and community leaders today, on the eve of California's Democratic state convention in San Diego.

"I'm endorsing Hillary Clinton for President because I know her and admire her," said California Treasurer Bill Lockyer. "She's been my good friend and our state's great ally for more than a decade. Nobody understands Californians, the California Dream, and the vital importance of California to our nation's success better than Hillary Clinton. And Hillary Clinton is -- far and away -- the only candidate who is ready to lead the country now, without any on-the-job training."

State Assemblywoman Fiona Ma said, "Hillary is the most qualified candidate and is ready to lead this country from day one. Hillary knows the White House, Congress, and has the respect of world leaders. Most importantly, Hillary has been long-time advocate for the Asian American and Pacific Islander community, and I know that she will continue her commitment when she becomes President."

Clinton will address the convention at 10:15 a.m. tomorrow at the San Diego Convention Center.

Leading Californians Endorsing Hillary Today:

Bill Lockyer, California Treasurer
Gray Davis, Former Governor
Christine Kehoe, State Senator
Sheila Kuehl, State Senator
Fiona Ma, State Assemblywoman
Clarence Avant, Music Executive
Berry Gordy, Music Producer and Founder of Motown Records
Quincy Jones, Musician
Rev. Amos Brown
Rosalind Wyman, Democratic National Committee Member and CEO of 1984 Democratic National Convention
Maria Echaveste, Democratic National Committee Member
Alice Huffman, Democratic National Committee Member
Mirian Saez, Democratic National Committee Member
Dennis Herrera, San Francisco City Attorney
Michela Alioto-Pier, San Francisco City Supervisor
Joe Nation, Former Assemblyman
Jackie Speier, Former State Senator
Otto Lee, Mayor of Sunnyvale
Henry Manayan, Former Mayor of Milpitas
Rajen Anand, Chairman of the National Federation of Indian-American Associations
Alice Bulos - Chair Emeritus of the Filipino American Democratic Caucus
Charmaine Manansala, former Advisor to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the White House Initiative on Asian American and Pacific Islanders
Dang Pham, Vietnamese Activist
Rose Ochi, Attorney
Jim Park, Businessman


by samueldem on Sat Apr 28, 2007 at 01:55:08 AM EST


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