And Another Pre-Debate Poll In South Carolina

by Chris Bowers, Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 12:27:37 AM EST

Zogby isn't the only organization to come out with a South Carolina poll today. A local NBC affiliate in South Carolina has it's own poll, conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang and it shows a dead heat:
Just three days before the Democratic presidential debate in South Carolina, a new poll by South Carolina NBC affiliate WIS-TV finds that Clinton and Obama are running neck and neck in the state. In the poll, which was conducted by Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group, Clinton is the preferred choice of 24% of likely Democratic primary voters, Obama is at 23%, and Edwards is at 16%.

The votes were also split along racial lines. Seventeen percent of white voters said they backed Clinton, compared with 31% of African Americans who did so. Obama received similar support (16% among whites and 29% among blacks), but Edwards' numbers were flipped (28% among whites and 7% among blacks).
One of the things I like about this poll are the higher number of undecideds than in previous South Carolina polls. In this poll, combined support for Clinton, Edwards and Obama is only 63%. by way of contrast, in the Zogby poll, their combined support was 80%, in the ARG poll it was 81%, and South Carolina Insider put undecideds at 71%. At this early point in the campaign, I would certainly err to the side of not pushing undecideds, than toward pushing undecideds. Support for all candidates is probably quite mutable at this point.

So... we have three South Carolina polls in April, one showing Obama ahead, another showing Clinton ahead, and a third showing a tie. It is probably best to refrain from calling one poll or the other an outlier at this point, since we know so little about the methodologies involved in producing the polls. If I had to guess, my first reaction is to say that this poll is the most accurate reflection of where the race stands in the Palmetto state. Not only does it not push undecideds, but the underlying implication of the Inflated Clinton Poll Theory is that Clinton and Obama are virtually tied. Thus, I am obviously pre-disposed to trust polls showing a tied campaign. The idea that Obama is way ahead in South Carolina strikes me as a little crazy, just as I believe that pushing undecideds unnaturally benefits Clinton at this point. Also, I trust Garin-Hart-Yang more than I trust Zogby.

Still, I would like to see more internal and methodological information on this poll, too. I will see what I can dig up tomorrow.

Update: I apologize for getting the polling firm's name wrong.




Tags: polls, President 2008, South Carolina, Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John Edwards (all tags)

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Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

It is a hard road ahead for Edwards. This poll shows he is getting only 7% of the black vote. Unless he can gain a lot of traction we may be looking at a Clinton - Obama sweep of the primaries through the end of February.


BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 12:43:24 AM EST

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (3.00 / 1)

You are assuming a very, very static primary season. What if Edwards wins Iowa? At that point, given how close he is in New Hampshire and South Carolina, it is hard to imagine him not becoming the favorite in both states.

It remains to be seen how much momentum candidates will get from early victories, but right now Edwards is actually much better positioned in the early states than Obama.
by Chris Bowers on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 12:46:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

I think Edwards would get some bounce from Iowa but he is so many points behind in so many states all across the map it still would not be easy to catch up to Clinton and Obama in a very short period of time since both will be heavily bankrolled and on the air and on the ground in every state through February. Edwards is well below 20% in most states polls and is in single digits in some of them.  

New Hampshire will be a tough state for Edwards. He finished fourth behind Clark there in 2004 even after doing well in Iowa. Clinton is well positioned with the Shaheens running her NH operation as they did for previous winners and she has every  veteran political operative there who knows where the votes are. Obama is doing well in New Hampshire too which does not leave much for Edwards.

In 2004 Clark bet it all on New Hampshire . To some extent Edwards is betting it all on Iowa while Clinton and Obama are investing in the delegate rich states afterwards. The nightmare scenario for Edwards is that he wins Iowa and then comes in third in New Hampshire and ends up third in South Carolina. I think that is a very real possibility even if he wins Iowa.  
   


BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 01:00:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (3.00 / 1)

Clark's big mistake, Rob if your'e gonna bet it all on one state you should pick the first one.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 01:06:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

Clark entered the race too late in September to get together much of the organization needed in Iowa. If I recall correctly I think Lieberman also skipped Iowa. His strategy was based on the premise that Dean would be the winner in Iowa and it was not anticipated that Kerry would win.  


BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 02:36:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

good point I never thought of it tha way, clark especially wanted to be the "reasonable" alternative to Dean with foreign policy experience needed to beat a war time incumbant but when Kerry proved viable it ended Clark's
reason for existing in the race. That said in 2008 based on the 2004 race in which was basically decided in Iowa One can't blame Edwards for trying to do the same thing, I don't think it will work because he's sort of expected to win Iowa now and I still think Obama will pull out New Hamphshire with a big independant voter turnout which will propel him to the nomination but if Edwards  wasn't this strong in Iowa we'd probably be grouping him in with Bill Richarson in the longshot but possable category.
Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 03:13:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

IIRC a number of polls have shown that Edwards does even better amongst independants than he does amongst democrats. Don't be so sure that Obama will end up with the indys breaking in his favor in the states in which they are able to choose to partipate in the democratic cacaus/primary.


by Quinton on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 11:26:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (3.00 / 1)

It is an obvious early state strategy. He is ahead in Iowa, which is designed to help him close his current nine or ten point gap in New Hampshire. A win in Iowa and New Hampshire would help him close the ten or twelve point gap he faces in South Carolina. And a sweep of all three would allow him to close pretty much any gap in any state on February 5th.

For Edwards, it all falls apart if he loses Iowa, or falls too far behind elsewhere. But an Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina sweep is by no means out of the question for Edwards. If he pulls it off, the nomination is almost certainly his.
by Chris Bowers on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 01:23:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

If Obama was not in the race the odds would be much better for Edwards. The most probable way I think it will play out is that Clinton will hold her base in the first 4 states and win or do well, Obama will do well enough to keep going, and Edwards will do well in Iowa but have a hard time against Clinton and Obama in NH, NV, and SC and the clock will run out on Edwards.

Of the top 3 I do think Obama is the most at risk of imploding like Dean did in 2004. The foreign policy speech today was in my opinion calculated to try to shore up experience and national security which are his weak points but I think it will be difficult for him to get past Clinton in those areas. Obama moving to the right will help Edwards if some of Obama's weak support drops off because they are no longer able to see differences between him and Clinton.

I think at some point Edwards has to find a way to take on Obama to have a shot at Clinton. That may be very difficult to do.


BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 02:34:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

that's another Edwards conundrum does he risk his Iowa nice guy image in trying to take down Obama's national profile? probably not, Edwards doesn't look right being the bad guy and he must win Iowa no matter what,and probably thinks a positive progressive campign does the trick while Obama and Hillary go to war which I do think is inevitable. I think your vastly underestimating Baracks potential for picking up votes and dealing with the "experience" meme but otherwise I agree with alot of what you write.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 03:23:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

Edwards won't have to attack Obama.  Hillary will do that for him.  Barack is Hillary's threat and she realizes it.  When they start sniping at each other I think it will turn off a lot of voters, a la Dean v Gephardt, and send them to the Edwards camp.

This is going to be a fascinating race.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 03:44:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

I have doubts that she will attack Obama in a major way. As long as he stays in second that keeps Edwards from gaining. If it comes down to a two person race between Clinton and Obama she has the edge.


BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 10:56:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

But if she doesn't do something, he might not be in second for much longer.  What happens then?  I've said before the most dangerous place in politics is to be running ahead of Hillary Clinton.


The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK
by Vox Populi on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 01:45:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

Clinton is in a good position. She is running a brilliant campaign even though many on the netroots do not see that. As long as Clinton and Obama are the top 2 and Edwards stays far behind she is exactly where she wants to be.


BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 05:16:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think Kerry was behind everywhere (none / 0)

even in December 2003. Dean was up on tv in a bunch of states and was leading in many polls.

There were some awful polls for Kerry coming out of NH in November and December 2003. Edwards was barely on the radar in NH at that time, and ended up doing almost as well as Clark, who bet the farm on that one small state.

Clinton's strongest card all along has been her claim to inevitability, but that is fading fast, which will prompt voters all over the place to take a hard look at the alternatives. That is good for Obama, but also good for Edwards.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 02:05:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Edwards barely registered in most polls (none / 0)

at the end of 2003. A lot can change in a short time.

I think the most engaged voters will be paying attention to the debates. We'll have plenty of them this year, and we'll see how the candidates stand up in that kind of format.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 12:55:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

Debate, not Deabte. :)


Swing State Project: Campaign & Election News - Covering Key Races Around the Country
by HellofaSandwich on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 12:58:05 AM EST

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

Edwards poll numbers in any state outside Iowa don't even really matter exept for fundraising purposes he knows his only shot is Iowa and hope the media makes enough of the win to "catipult" himself into a 3 way race, his only other chance is if Hillary or Obama falls apart which is hard to see happening even though my gut tells me Hillary won't do well in either of the big 3 early states, (I don't know how Nevada will be viewed but I wouldn't bet on a great showing by her either) Still she would probably continue on and hope the Northeast shows up big for her. Obama's big early state is New Hampshire as long as he does ok in Iowa I think he wins the state with support from "McCain" independants of 2000 and his college age base.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 01:00:14 AM EST

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

Contrary to what you may believe, Democrats don't hate Hillary Clinton. After watching Obama's speech, I seriously doubt that you can claim is some sort of "Progressive Warrior". Edwards and Clinton are much more likely to fight it out for the nomination because of their experience.


by bsavage on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 02:31:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

That is total nonesense, and you're living in your own world if you believe that foolishness.

Hillary support is not strong "on the street." Living in RI, the discussion is liberal...and it is not nearly as strong for Clinton as one would imagine.


by mattmfm on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 04:55:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

What exactly is nonsense?


by bsavage on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 07:13:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

That "democrats don't hate Hillary."

Also, to claim that Obama is not a top two is just hillarious!


by mattmfm on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 08:30:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: And Another Pre-Deabte Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

Obama is a definetely a frontrunner, good for him. As for Hillary Clinton, she might not have Obama's charisma, but you would be hard pressed to find a mjority of Democrats who hater her. Even most of Obama's supporters or Edwards for that matter, don't hate her.


by bsavage on Wed Apr 25, 2007 at 01:43:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary's weak head-to-head polling is hurting her (none / 0)

The closer we get to the actual voting and as Democrats assess the strength of the various candidates, Hillary's weak performance in polling against Republicans will draw more and more concern.


John Edwards 2008
by MeanBoneII on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 03:10:42 AM EST

Re: And Another Pre-Debate Poll In South Carolina (none / 0)

I think the onus is on Edwards to act.  If he waits silently for Hillary and Obama to go at each other, then he will lose out.  Right now I think Hillary and Obama's camps are circling each other, but not making any real move to attack.  If Obama attacks first he cedes the high ground to Hillary, who will rightfully return fire.  That said, I also think Hillary's public response will be one of  wounded dignity vs. the kick him in the nuts kind. If that's the case Edwards gains nothing and loses attention to Obama and Hillary's fight.  He has nothing to lose and votes to gain if he successfully combats Hillary and Obama's momentum.  He has to make sure though that when people change their mind about Hillary, the vote doesn't go to Obama and vice versa, in order to do that he needs to make himself heard.


by Kingstongirl on Tue Apr 24, 2007 at 01:32:48 PM EST


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