MyDD :: Senate Retirement Watch: Did John Warner Raise $500 this Quarter?

Senate Retirement Watch: Did John Warner Raise $500 this Quarter?

by Jonathan Singer, Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 01:54:17 PM EST

Is John Warner easing into retirement? Take a look at these numbers, which appear to be his official first quarter fundraising totals filed with the Federal Elections Commission:

Total Receipts:    $500
Transfers From Authorized Committees:    $0
Individual Contributions:    $0
Non-Party (e.g. PACs) or Other Committees:    $0
Contributions from Party Committees    $0
Candidate Contribution:    $0
Candidate Loans:    $0
Other Loans:    $0

Total Disbursements:    $30,944
Transfers to Authorized Committees:    $0
Individual Refunds:    $0
Non-Party (e.g. PACs) or Other Refunds:    $0
Candidate Loan Repayments:    $0
Other Loan Repayments:    $0

Beginning Cash:    $697,717
Latest Cash On Hand:    $667,272
Debts Owed By:    $0

From this report, it appears that Virginia Republican John Warner raised a whopping $500 dollars towards his Senate reelection campaign during the first quarter of 2007. To accomplish such a feat, one almost need ask supporters not to make contributions -- an almost definite sign of an intention to retire.

Of course I could be reading these numbers incorrectly, and the possibility remains that Warner will file an amendment to his FEC filing that indicates a higher level of fundraising (and a higher level of spending, because $30,000 isn't a terribly large amount of money to spend in a quarter to put together a reelection effort, even if you expect to have an easy go of it). Still, with initial numbers like these, it's certainly not a bad thing that Chuck Schumer and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee are reportedly leaning extremely hard on former Democratic Governor Mark Warner to take a look at the Virginia Senate race in 2008.

Tags: Retirements, John Warner, VA-Sen, Senate 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 17 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Senate Retirement Watch: Did John Warner Raise (none / 0)

Mark Warner 2008!

by danIA on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 02:07:42 PM EST

Re: Senate Retirement Watch: Did John Warner .. (none / 0)

Is this is the accurate picture, then Schumer needs to learn very hard. I have felt that if Mark Warner were to run, that John Warner would pack it in for sure. Would J. Warner really want to run a bruising reelection campaign at his age. Does he really want to be tagged with Smirk's disaster?

John McCain: Bush right to veto kids health insurance expansion

by Calvin Jones and the 13th Apostle on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 02:22:00 PM EST

Re: (none / 0)

Wow, How awesome would it be for Virginia to have two Democratic Senators? That would just kick some serious ass.

by yitbos96bb on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 02:23:33 PM EST

Re: Senate Retirement Watch: Did John Warner Raise (none / 0)

Looks more like he raised $0 and spent $500.

Total Receipts: $500
Beginning Cash: $697,717
Latest Cash On Hand: $667,272

by skintigh on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 02:29:10 PM EST

Re: Senate Retirement Watch (3.00 / 2)

Wow, George Allen raised $83,000 for the quarter and John Warner raised $500. Amazing.

The only other Senator reporting so far was Olympia Snowe. She didn't do much either but does have over $1 million in the bank for a much smaller and cheaper state than Virginia.

In case anyone hasn't noticed, the only large state (20 or more electoral votes) with a statewide contest in 2008 (Governor or Senator) is Illinois (Dick Durbin, Senate). The thirteen mid-sized states (10 to 17 electoral votes), OTOH, have eight Senate contests and four Governor's elections. Only Wisconsin and Arizona (both at 10 electoral votes) lack a statewide contest.

This would seem to mean at least two things. First, the 195 House contests in the "big" states will get a lot of attention (107 D, 88 R at the moment). Second, more money will be available for marquis Senate races in small and mid-sized states. In 2004, the highest dollar Senate contest was in South Dakota ($37 million combined).

Two big states have minor state wide contests. One of the three seats on the Texas Railroad Commission is up for a vote; three minor state offices are also up in Pennsylvania (Attorney General, Auditor, Treasurer). OK, Chris, tell me these are not minor ...

All four of the mid-sized governor's races are intersting. Mike Easley is term-limited in North Carolina meaning a real open contest. Washington offers a rematch of the recount reversal between Christine Gregoire and Dino Rossi. Matt ("Baby") Blount will run in Missouri with less cover from his now less powerful father. Mitch Daniels looks like a loser in once so-Republican Indiana.

Five of the eight Senate seats up in the mid-sized seats are held by Republicans (Saxby Chambliss, Elizabeth Dole, John Warner,Lamar Alexander, and Norm Coleman). Two of the three Democratic seats look safe (John Kerry, Levin) with Frank Lautenberg being mostly safe). The thirteen mid-sized states have 135 House seats (73 D, 62 R).

by David Kowalski on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 02:36:00 PM EST

Re: Senate Retirement Watch (none / 0)

Except that John Cornyn in Texas will be running for re-election.

"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR

by jallen on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 04:28:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate Retirement Watch: Did John Warner Raise (none / 0)

Nominating Warner to replace Warner... Tricksy.

I wonder what % of the vote could swing on low-info voters mistaking Mark Warner for the incumbent...

by dopplex on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 02:47:29 PM EST

Re: Senate Retirement Watch: Did John Warner Raise (none / 0)

How do you think Mark almost beat John back in 1996?

by thirdestate on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 03:00:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate Retirement Watch: Did John Warner Raise (none / 0)

its true, its almost impossible NOT to raise more than $500. Either there's something we're missing or Warner is on his way out.

by AC4508 on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 03:00:51 PM EST

Senate Retirement: Did John Warner Raise $500? (none / 0)

IMO - I think what's happening, is Mark Warner wants to see John step out of 2008, then he'd move in. Same thing George Allen is doing.

Meanwhile I think John is waiting for Mark to step in before he steps out... Tricky, I know.

Someone needs a push to get this chain of events going.

by JeremiahTheMessiah on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 03:34:42 PM EST

Re: Senate Retirement: Did John Warner Raise $500? (none / 0)

Now that I think of it, someone mentioned George Allen raised over $80,000. Considering he isn't currently set to run for any office, I'm guessing Warner might be planning to pass his seat to Allen.

We have to draft Mark and get him in the race to stop that sorry excuse of a man George Allen from getting back into the United States Senate.

by JeremiahTheMessiah on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 03:47:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate Retirement: Did John Warner Raise $500? (3.00 / 1)

Nope, the consensus nominee (if there is one now) is Representative Tom Davis. Virginia was on Rove's leaked list of states with competitive races. On Rove's hosue list, it also said that Tom Davis was probably going to retire - he's running for the open Senate seat. This is an open seat.

Jim Oberweis

by cilerder86 on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 04:06:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate Retirement: Did John Warner Raise $500? (none / 0)

Oh okay. That makes plenty of sense.

Any idea who will run for Tom D.'s seat?

by JeremiahTheMessiah on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 04:31:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate Retirement: Did John Warner Raise $500? (none / 0)

Leslie Byrne. She held the seat before, and lost it to Tom Davis in 1994.

Beyond that I dunno. There could be other Ds running.

by texas dem on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 09:05:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate Retirement: Did John Warner Raise $500? (3.00 / 1)

How much did Tom Davis raise? If he had a huge quarter, that would tell us something.

by texas dem on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 09:06:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate Retirement Watch: Did John Warner Raise (3.00 / 1)

Tom Davis has all but say he's running if Mark Warner retires. I wouldn't be surprised if him and Rove already know for sure

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/52_107/po litics/17941-1.html

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/discussion/2007/04/04/DI20070404022 95.html

actually, he has said as much too:

http://www.rollcall.com/issues/52_81/new s/17066-1.html

"Most politicians tend to be wary of discussing their own futures. But Rep. Tom Davis (R-Va.) is remarkably candid about the crossroads he is approaching in Congress.

In a Tuesday interview, Davis said unambiguously that he will run for the Senate in 2008 if five-term Sen. John Warner (R-Va.) decides to retire.

"It is safe to say that I would run," Davis said. "But if he does run, I would stand out front and take a bullet for him. I think the world of John. I would not do anything to undermine that.""

Notice the not so subtle message Davis sends Mark runner.

by adilla on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 10:06:07 PM EST

Re: Senate Retirement Watch: Did John Warner Raise (3.00 / 1)

here's more:

Davis also acknowledged that this could be his last term in Congress. He views 2008 as his best opportunity for a Senate run, and regardless of Warner's decision he has doubts about seeking an eighth term in the House.

"I've talked to most of [the Virginia GOP delegation] and they all understand what I want to do at this point if [the Senate seat] opens. If it doesn't open then that would probably be my last shot at doing anything state-wide," he conceded, adding that he has little to no interest in other statewide offices such as the governorship.

Speculation abounded in the 109th Congress that Davis was mulling retirement, particularly as word surfaced in late 2005 that his name was floated to head up the powerful National Federation of Independent Business.

He is one Republican whose minority status would be unlikely to hurt his chances to land a lucrative job on K Street or elsewhere in the private sector, as he has built a reputation around his ability to work with Democrats.

Davis admitted that he considered retiring last year, but opted to run again in part because he believed the poor political climate would have led to Democrats picking up his Northern Virginia-based seat.

...

"I think had I left last year, which we contemplated doing, [the seat] would have gone. I don't think there's any way you would have held the seat last year, but I don't know that in 2008 we couldn't hold the seat with the right candidate," he said, adding that his leaving would depend greatly on his confidence that a Republican will take the seat.

by adilla on Thu Apr 12, 2007 at 10:08:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

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