Further emphasizing the notion that Matt can write faster than me, I noticed, after finishing a piece on Obama's AP quote, that
Matt's article on the subject had already been up on the front page for seventeen minutes. Even so, I want to echo what he wrote, with a few more details to top it off.
First off, despite the way the AP writer wants to spin things, the article is about what Obama expects will happen, not what he thinks should happen. Obama's goal is the same as ours--a veto-proof majority in congress in favor of binding withdrawal deadlines. However, in the immediate fight to build that majority, he is not acting as a leader. The AP article in which he was quoted continues the media narrative around the supplemental where Democrats are forced to justify their extremely popular opposition to Bush on Iraq, while Republicans are not being pressed to justify their extremely unpopular support of Bush on Iraq. Obama should have rejected the premise of the question he was asked and, instead of talking about process within the Democratic caucus, aimed his response at congressional Republicans who are still supporting Bush on Iraq. Right now, we need stories about Republicans squirming to justify their unpopular positions on the war, rather than stories about prominent Democrats expecting our new congressional majorities to cave almost immediately after finally passing the first piece of legislation to respect both reality in, and public opinion on, Iraq. Obama could have done better, as in this circumstance he acted more like a pundit going along with the established flow of the national discourse by predicting what Democrats in Congress will do post-veto. Rather, he should have acted as a leader, by helping pile on pressure to reach the veto-proof majority he seeks.
What is the possible value of publicly predicting that Democrats will cave? Let's say, hypothetically, that Obama is correct, and there is immediate post-veto capitulation on the supplemental. If this is the case, then progressives should learn a simple lesson: don't compromise with the leadership, because the leadership will not fight for those compromises. So suddenly we have an internal coalition problem. Further, quick capitulation would be extremely frustrating even from a non-ideological perspective, considering that we have both time and public opinion on our side. How weak would we look, considering our great advantages in this fight? In terms of time, we have at least three months to engage this fight since,
according to the Pentagon itself:
"[T]he Army could finance its O&M expenses through the end of May by tapping $52.6 billion in O&M funding already provided by Congress." Furthermore, with congressional approval, the Pentagon could temporarily transfer money out of other accounts, giving the Army "almost two additional months" to conduct its regular operations and the war.
In terms of public opinion, the supplemental is overwhelmingly popular. The three polls conducted on the Democratic supplemental that includes a timeline all show remarkably similar results:
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Pew, 3/25: Support 59%--33% Oppose
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CBS, 3/27: Support 59%--37% Oppose
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Newsweek, 3/29: Support 57%--36% Oppose
There is no reason to cave in this fight. Even if you expect it to happen, if you a prominent progressive public figure, there is no reason to publicly predict Democrats will cave. This compromise was just too difficult to forge in the first place--let's not predict its doom just yet. It wasn't supposed to have a deadline in it, but it did. It wasn't supposed to pass the House, but it did. It wasn't supposed to pass the Senate, but it did. After all of these victories, why predict defeat now? We have time, we have popularity, and we can get more Republicans to break ranks. As Mathew Dowd has shown, we can drive this wedge deep into the heart of the Republican coalition, seriously damaging it for the foreseeable future. This is a fight we can win, and not just on symbolic terms either. In order to do so, we need figures like Senator Obama to step up.