Jonathan.. the "re-implimentation of prayer" in public schools?  Since when has the American republic ever officially recognized prayer in public schools?

I think a lot of GOP operatives must look at Giuliani as a scandal waiting to happen. If Giuliani looked durable I think the party elders could live with him but I think the GOP political hitmen look at Rudy and say 'if this guy was the opposition we'd have a field day'. The reality-based community looks to be ascendant and the cruel divorces, Bernie Kerik, corruption, and general turmoil of Mayor Giuliani must look like it won't withstand the scrutiny of the Presidential race. I don't think it has anything to do with conservative credentials. I think it has to do with Giuliani's personal life being Gary Hart on crack.

Doesn't Rudy poll well against Democrats?  This has to be about something else because modern Republicans have no other core belief than power and nothing is less powerful than losing. It must scare the daylights out of the GOP to lose the security issue with Bush only to lose the moral issues with a scandal-plagued '08 nominee who implodes in the general election over crazy sex, rampant corruption and a twisted family life.

So the theme continues here. The 'you have to be, deemed anyway, a celebrity by the MSM before you can run for Pres' Read: before you can raise money.  And being known should not be mistaken for modern day "celebrity". i.e.  Joe Biden is "known", barely, but he is "known". Fred Thompson is a "celebrity". Assuming this Reaganesque dynamic is taking hold in America, it will be fascinating to see where it takes us.    

Knockout line for Rudy: " Bill never moved Monica into the White House with Hillary and Chelsea."

THAT one line sums up Rudy, and all this line implicates:
Cheating on his wife
Bringing his mistress into the home with his wife and children
A home PAID FOR BY THE TAXPAYERS

All of that signals who Rudy REALLY is.

RUdy as nominee means that any 'moral' appeal or attacks are MOOT for the GOP. And, if they don't have that, then they are putting away a big stick for themselves.

the GOP needs a antichoice consensus candidate

Rudy was pro-choice before he was against it.

A pro-choice candidate will never get the GOP nomination.  Giuliani will do a Romney on that issue.

It's strictly business.

It's a small point, but Fred Thompson was only elected twice; in 1994, to serve out Gore's term, and in 1997.

I am really concerned about the fact that we no longer get the people best qualified to serve, only to run.  Celebrity trumps ability every time.

It holds true on both sides of the aisle.

I heard one Republican activist quoted on NPR as not being impressed with the former Mayor of New York, "He might as well have been a city councilman from Sodom."

Your post kind of assumes that there is an opportunity for a candidate to emerge outside of the Republican machine.  McCain is pandering because the machine slapped him down in 2000, and he wants it on his side this time.  If he's right, it really doesn't matter who else runs.

Thompson was a formidable candidate when he first ran for the Senate in Tennessee.  He ran against Bob Cooper, an influential Congressman with a lot of ideas about healthcare, and demolished him.  Thompson hadn't lived in Tennessee for 20 years, but he overcame this by simply acting as a Tennessean.  He so much looked the part of a Tennessee senator that voters bought it.  All Thompson would do was don a red plaid shirt and ride around Tennessee in a pickup truck, look into the camera and say avuncular things like, "I want to release the genius of the American people."  Meanwhile, Cooper was out there with the seven-point plan on reforming healthcare.  He never stood a chance.

A protege of Howard Baker, Thompson was counsel for the Senate impeachment committee in 1974, serving alongside Hillary Clinton and Bill Weld.

All I'm saying is that we've been given the Unity 08 ticket on a silver platter.  Thompson/Watterson (or more accurately the Branch/McCoy) ticket would be unbeatable come sweeps week.

I won't be suprised if Fred becomes the "Come out of nowhere front runner". I tink we need to do some research on who he is and what his Political record demonstraits. We should be blind sided by his entrance. We all know how the great wurlitzer will turn him ito another God like Centerist savior of the Country!  

Has a dark horse ever captured the Republican nomination in, say, the last 50 years?

Yet all the 'disarray' stories I read are about the Democrats.

Just goes to show you can't kill a story arc  -- tax-and-spend Democrats, Al Gore thinks he's better than you, King George is actually Everyman -- any more than you can kill kudzu.

He is well known, unites the conservative coalition, good on tv, conservative but appears sensible to the average voter.  Put that all together and as a Democrat I get very nervous.

The short answer is no.  My firm understanding is that Thompson was not all that conservative, at least compared to the other wingnuts.  I dont know any specific issues he supported or opposed, but my memory is that he was always closer to being a Howard Baker type Republican then a Tom Delay type.

Aw fuck.  I just threw up a little bit in my mouth.  A great way to start my day.  Thanks Jonathan.

A lot of us in the liberal blogosphere have talked about the fear that someone like Mike Hucakbee could emerge from the second tier and attract indie and crossover votes. Huckabee has made little progress so far because he is not really a puppet of the powers that be in the Republican Party and is having to run as an outsider.

Thompson is like Huckabee. He is very slick and would likely have higher "feel good" recognition that any of the current GOP field. He does not have the baggage of Rudy, McCain, Romney, etc. If he gets in the race we may all depressed when we see head to head matchups of Thompson vs Clinton, Obama, Edwards, etc.

The fact that Thompson says he is actually considering running is pretty scary.  He looks Presidential which counts for a lot nowadays and is about the only thing that is keeping Romney in the top tier for Republicans.  Maybe Fred likes the money and lack of public criticism he gets doing what he is doing now and will give the race a pass.  

Here in Tennessee, I believe the Fred Thompson chatter has already begun among the wingnut grass roots.  Me and my fellow liberals were having a conversation at work last week about the sad state of Rudy and Mitt and McCain and Newtie, and just as I said, "Then who will the Republicans nominate?" the one Southern Baptist Republican we let in the office pipes up and says, "Fred Thompson!"  As the rest of us groan and roll our eyes, and say "ohhhh, sure, another actor," she points out that Williamson County, which contains Nashville's wealthy suburbs, contributed the second-most money to Republican campaigns of all the counties in the country.  If Thompson wants to run, he'll be starting from a strong fund-raising base in Tennessee.

So, yes, this appears to be for real.

And, yes, we should be scared.

He got out of politics so he could devote his time to acting.

Now, he just plays a conservative on TV...