One phenomenon in national polls I am starting to notice is that the harder undecideds are pushed, the better Hillary Clinton does. Breaking the last six national polls into two groups, something of a pattern emerges:
Group One
| Poll |
Undecideds |
Clinton Lead |
Clinton Raw |
| Gallup, 3/4 |
4% |
14% |
36% |
| Time, 2/26 |
7% |
12% |
36% |
| ABC-WaPo, 2/25 |
3% |
12% |
36% |
| Mean |
4.7% |
12.7% |
36.0% |
Group Two
| Poll |
Undecideds |
Clinton Lead |
Clinton Raw |
| Rasmussen, 3/1 |
18% |
8% |
34% |
| Fox, 2/28 |
12% |
11% |
34% |
| Zogby, 2/24 |
20% |
8% |
33% |
| Mean |
16.7% |
9.0% |
33.7% |
There are two reasons why Clinton does better in polls that push undecideds than she does otherwise. First, she is leading overall, she it follows that the she would also lead among undecideds. The more undecideds who are pushed, the larger her lead will become. Secondly, her lead among undecideds is particularly pronounced, because she does better relative to Obama and Edwards among those not paying close attention than she does among those paying closer attention. Consider, for example, the following crosstab from
the latest Pew poll on the Democratic nomination, where they looked at who voters were considering relative to how close they were paying attention to the campaign:
"Good Chance" of voting for... (among those paying "a lot" / "some" attention)
Clinton: 56%
Obama: 48%
Edwards: 24%
"Good Chance" of voting for (among those paying "not much" / "none at all")
Clinton: 42%
Obama: 23%
Edwards: 22%
People who are not currently engaged in the campaign are both relatively more pro-Clinton than those who are paying attention, and relatively more prone toward being undecided. Edwards also gains virtually nothing from those who are paying attention, while Obama gains the most. Thus, the more polls push undecideds, who tend to be relatively pro-Clinton, the better off Clinton will appear. This also means that some of Clinton's lead, but not quite all of it, appears to be maintained by low-information voters. Further, it also means that the next wave of voters to become engaged in the campaign are more inclined toward Clinton than the current group, which means Obama and Edwards will have their work cut out for them when those voters become engaged.
Anyway, check out the latest Gallup poll for the national primary, that was released this morning. It shows Obama closing the gap, but not as much as other polls. Gallup included second-choices in this poll, so I am waiting to see if they will show results without Al Gore.
