2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008

Now that National Journal has released its annual round of vote rankings, I'm updating my chart detailing the voting patterns of the 32 Senators up for reelection in 2008 (one Senator, Republican Wayne Allard of Colorado, having already announced his intention to retire at the end of the 110th Congress). A few notes about the chart:

  • Those Senators who appear in bold have been ranked by either the Cook Political Report (.pdf) or the Rothenberg Political Report as being vulnerable or potentially vulnerable this cycle.
  • The National Journal composite score measures how the percentage of the Senate a particular member voted to the right or left of. A composite liberal score of 75 would mean that that particular Senator tended to vote to the left of 75 percent of his or her colleagues across all issues in 2006; likewise, a composite conservative score of 75 would mean that a particular Senator tended to vote to the right of 75 percent of his or her colleagues across all issues in 2006. For Republicans, I have listed the composite conservative score while for Democrats I have listed the composite liberal score.
  • The other two ratings, party unity and presidential support, come from Congressional Quarterly. The first is a measure of the percentage of the time that a particular voted with his or her party when a majority of that party caucus voted in opposition to the majority of the other party caucus in 2006. The second measures the percentage of the time that a particular Senator supported the President's position on a particular vote before the chamber in 2006.

Republicans
State Senator NJ Composite
Conservative
Score
CQ Party
Unity Score
CQ Presidential
Support Score
Alabama Sessions 90.5 96 91
Alaska Stevens 64 80 93
Georgia Chambliss 88.2 94 93
Idaho Craig 81.7 91 94
Kansas Roberts 78.2 94 88
Kentucky McConnell 84.3 96 91
Maine Collins 47.2 66 79
Minnesota Coleman 53.8 77 88
Mississippi Cochran 64.3 87 89
Nebraska Hagel 72 84 96
New Hampshire Sununu 69.2 91 90
New Mexico Domenici 75.3 85 91
North Carolina Dole 80.7 94 90
Oklahoma Inhofe 89.3 94 88
Oregon Smith 54 80 83
South Carolina Graham 70.8 82 91
Tennessee Alexander 71.5 94 93
Texas Cornyn 90.8 97 91
Virginia Warner 55.3 81 91
Wyoming Enzi 89.5 98 91

It's worth noting that because the National Journal rankings deal in percentiles rather than hard numbers, a particular Senator might appear more moderate than he or she deserves credit for. For instance, Norm Coleman's 53.8 conservative score would seem to put him not too far out of line with his Minnesota constituents, but a gander at his party unity and presidential support scores -- 77 and 88, respectively -- paints a different picture: one of a Senator too beholden to his party's leadership. Similarly, Susan Collins comes off well in the National Journal rankings with a score that actually places her in the left half of the Senate, but her party unity (66) and presidential support (79) scores indicates she's not quite the centrist maverick you might assume she is. This is not necessarily meant to be a knock on the National Journal rankings, because I definitely think they have their purpose (perhaps most importantly so that we can track a Senator's voting record over time). Still, it is worth keeping in mind that the National Journal rankings are not the be all and end all of vote rankings.

Below the fold: Democrats up for reelection in 2008.

Democrats
State Senator NJ Comp.
Liberal Score
CQ Party
Unity Score
CQ Presidential
Support Score
Arkansas Pryor 59.5 76 64
Deleware Biden 77.5 91 55
Illinois Durbin 95.2 98 47
Iowa Harkin 92 95 46
Louisiana Landrieu 57.5 75 71
Massachusetts Kerry 85.7 95 51
Michigan Levin 85.3 94 56
Montana Baucus 66.2 79 61
New Jersey Lautenberg 84.3 97 46
Rhode Island Reed 91.3 96 53
South Dakota Johnson 69.2 83 57
West Virginia Rockefeller N/A* 84 55
According to National Journal, "Sen. Jay Rockefeller IV, D-W.Va., does not
have a composite score due to missed votes."


Display:


Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)

The 4.8 for Durbin must be a mistake.


"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR
by jallen on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 02:45:17 AM EST

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)

Ah, thanks. Yes, that would be his conservative score, not his liberal score.


Blogging here @ MyDD.com. Twittering @jonathanhsinger.
by Jonathan Singer on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 02:52:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)

Does CQ do a rating of the House members as well?

It would be interesting to contrast the Senate scores against the aggregate House scores (sum of individual scores divided by # Reps in a state vs. individual Senator).

A state like New Hampshire in 2007 is going to get completely different ideological representation in either half of Congress - cancelling out it's own representation. That's madness.


"Nothing seems to embarrass the political class today." - Bill Moyers
by joejoejoe on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 03:06:28 AM EST

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (3.00 / 1)

Yes.

We will put a stop to that, though, when we oust Sununu in 2008.

The two happiest people in NH the day after a blue wave swept through all areas of representation were John Sununu and Judd Gregg (neither was up for re-election, and neither of them would have survived).


Wonder if Sununu's fired now.
by Dean Barker on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 06:38:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)

It'll be hard to paint Mary Landrieu as a liberal with numbers like that.  The problem is can WE count on her with numbers like that.  Being a Southern Democrat can be so much fun. LOL


The bad news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority. The good news is that my Representative and two Senators are in the minority.
by CLLGADEM on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 05:52:08 AM EST

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)

Her score is close to Thad Cochran's in Mississippi.


BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 12:19:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)

What are Bush's approval ratings in Nebraska? If Hagel runs again I can't see him being beaten, but we could at least tarnish the brand by questioning his reputation as a maverick. Also, what is it that lowers the party unity score of Stevens? I thought he only voted against his party on the rare occasions when they wouldn't give him the absurd appropriations he wanted.
Visit Forgotten Countries, my new foreign policy-based blog
by Englishlefty on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 07:55:25 AM EST

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (3.00 / 1)

I think you can add Domenici to the Vulnerable list.


by Steambomb on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 09:37:39 AM EST

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)

especially after he's admitted to getting the US Attorney fired.


by Lucas O'Connor on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 12:18:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)

I don't think Dumb-'n-itchy is as vulnerable as all that.  This flap is too far from the election, and I think he has plausible deniability (damn it).  Remember, he's called "Saint Pete" in these parts because he brings home the bacon, especially to our two national laboratories.  For some reason I can't fathom, most Hispanic Democrats tend to vote for the guy with power, rather than for the candidate who shares their views.  Perhaps it's a cultural holdover from the old "patron" system.

If Dumb-'n-itchy does run for re-election, no substantial Democrat will run against him.  Our best hope is that the US Attorney scandal, combined with his failing health, will convince him to retire.  It's our only realistic hope of picking up the seat.


Senator Al Franken. Have I died and gone to heaven?
by NM Ward Chair on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 08:03:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

For the newbies (none / 0)

for all the political newbies, here's the hidden agenda behind delivering statistics as above.

political spending and ad-revenue is the reason why the differences in context and state assailabilty factor are represent in absolutes.

when , for example, sen. ford ran against bill frist - he was not considered 'vulnerable'   ie at the time of ford's bid, there was no ad money in tennessee because it was not in play.

everything here is hinging on a view that television advertising determines success - DESPITE - the fact that a GOP republican presidential candidate running in a strong GOP territory was defeated last year because of a youtube video.

:-)\


.. and when I win the lottery, gonna donate half my money to the city so they have to name a school or a park after me - camper van beethoven
by heyAnita on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 11:30:06 AM EST

Re: For the newbies (none / 0)

typo - sen. candidate ford, (D) ran against corker (R) for Bill Frist's senate seat. Ford never ran against Frist. (but he damn near won!)


.. and when I win the lottery, gonna donate half my money to the city so they have to name a school or a park after me - camper van beethoven
by heyAnita on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 11:30:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)


by exLogCabin on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 12:01:14 PM EST

who are most vulnerable of Senators not bolded? (none / 0)

Here's my input:

Republicans:

1. Texas-Cornyn: low approval rating

  1. New Mexico-Domenici: Dem state and Domenici seems to be losing his luster
  2. Kentucky-McConnell: low approval and saddled with carrying water for Bush

Dems:

1. New Jersey-Lautenberg: too old


Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 12:04:48 PM EST

Two words (none / 0)

"New Jersey-Lautenberg: too old"

Two words: Strom Thurmond
TWo more: Jesse Helms
Two more: Robert Byrd
Two more: Ted Stevens


"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR
by jallen on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 01:39:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)

Just as Dems were able to eke out a narrow Senate Majority with a perfect storm, I keep holding out that we can somehow hit that magical 60 this next time around.  It's great to see Inhofe on the list cause that brings us to six, and I can see Domenici and Warner retiring pushing us to eight and Colorado giving us nine. It's that final piece that needs another Macaca moment.  Could Cochran also retire?  Are Cornyn and McConnell as vulnerable as some recent reports show?  Oh, my mouth is salivating!!


by exLogCabin on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 12:05:25 PM EST

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)

If we can get to 56, I think we will be fine, especially if the 56 don't include the few GOP moderates like Collins or Snowe.  I doubt they will tow the GOP line that much faced with those numbers and a Dem President... Not with popular bills anyway.


by yitbos96bb on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 08:04:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)

Larry Craig is undecided as to running for reelection in 2008. There will be a Republican primary challenge from one possibly two individuals including current representative Bill Sali. Additionally, the gay issue could be put in play during the primary so all bets are off.


by steelhead on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 12:35:07 PM EST

Re: 2006 Vote Rankings for Senators Up in 2008 (none / 0)

I have the most conservitive senator in America? Oy!


by ND1979 on Mon Mar 05, 2007 at 02:37:03 PM EST


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