How do the three well-known Democratic contenders for President--Clinton, Edwards and Obama--perform against the two well known Republican contenders--Giuliani, McCain--in hypothetical trial hear matchups? There is a general perception that Clinton does the worst, which many people emphasized this week during the electability discussion. However, a comprehensive look at the actual numbers during the post-announcement phase of the campaign (that is, polls taken after January) is necessary before any definitive statements are made. So, in order to develop a baseline for these discussions, using resources at
Polling Report,
Rasmussen Reports,
Pollster.com, and
Real Clear Politics, I compiled data looking at all of the general election trial heats taken in February and March involving the five best known candidates (well, five of the six, since everyone crushes Gingrich). Here are the results:
Giuliani vs. Clinton (15 polls)
- Trial heat mean: Giuliani 47.9%--43.1% Clinton.
- Raw score median: Giuliani 47%--43% Clinton
- Median margin: Giuliani +5
- Two-Month Trend: None
Giuliani vs. Obama (12 polls)
- Trial heat mean: Giuliani 45.5%--42.1% Obama
- Raw Score median: Giuliani 45.0%--42.5% Obama
- Median margin: Giuliani +5
- Two-Month Trend: Obama
Giuliani vs. Edwards (6 polls)
- Trial heat mean: Giuliani 46.5%--42.3% Edwards
- Raw score median: 46.5%--42.5%
- Median margin: Giuliani +4
- Two-Month Trend: Giuliani
When match up against Giuliani, Obama does very slightly better than Edwards and Clinton. The difference, however, is less than two points. Now for the McCain numbers:
McCain vs. Clinton (11 polls)
- Trial heat mean: McCain 45.8%--44.0% Clinton.
- Raw score median: McCain 46%--44% Clinton
- Median margin: Even
- Two-Month Trend: McCain
McCain vs. Obama (10 polls)
- Trial heat mean: Obama 44.0%--43.6% McCain
- Raw Score median: Obama 44.0%--43.5% McCain
- Median margin: Even
- Two-Month Trend: McCain
McCain vs. Edwards (6 polls)
- Trial heat mean: Edwards 43.5%--43.2% McCain
- Raw score median: McCain 43.5%--43.0% Edwards
- Median margin: McCain +1
- Two-Month Trend: Edwards
Once again, Obama does a little bit better than Edwards, and Edwards does a little bit better than Clinton. However, as with Giuliani, the differences are minor, and come out to less than 3% in all categories.
Does a 2-3% difference this far out represent an "electability" problem for Clinton, and a boost to an "electability" argument for Obama and Edwards? This far out, that is not an easy argument to make. On the one hand, Obama and Edwards still give away 10-15% in name ID to Giuliani and McCain, which indicates their numbers could go up, but on the other hand neither have suffered the level of assault from the right-wing noise machine that Clinton has faced for the pat fifteen years, so their numbers could go down. Still, unclear as it may be, it is a better argument than the crap, establishment "inexperienced" narrative being spun to try and take down Obama on the "electability" front right now. This may be splitting Pringles, but the "inexperienced" narrative isn't based on any facts whatsoever.
