Harry Reid, Iraq, and Third Parties WOO-HOO!!!

I've been suspicious of Reid's intentions regarding Iraq for some time, and so I was surprised when the chatter of a Senate bill with a withdrawal timeline as the most likely possibility started.  There is a huge disconnect between elite and populist opinion on the war.  On a popular level, the Democratic Party is working on legislation to withdraw from Iraq, and various candidates are proposing plans to 'withdraw' from Iraq.  Within the elites, though, withdrawal from Iraq is considered something of a joke, and 'withdrawal' plans as happy talk PR packaging for American plans to stay in Iraq.  I have seen no progressive caucus members or retired Generals making an issue of it in the context of 2008, which the vehicle through which the party has its debates.

On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is by far the worst candidate here, saying that she will end the war while offering plans to keep troops in Iraq, as if there's some way to have American troops use magic bullets that only strike Al Qaeda operatives and vaguely named extremists.  These magic bullets can also pierce concepts, like Iranian influence.  Also, somehow all the problems in Iraq are the responsibility of the Iraqi government, which we had apparently no hand in setting up.

Still, this isn't meant just to pick on Clinton, as the other candidates aren't exactly clean, with Obama and Edwards keeping away from a clean withdrawal option and generally shying away from a progressive reframing of American national security policy.  My point isn't that immediate withdrawal is the best plan; I'm no military strategist, and I have no doubt Bush would screw up a withdrawal as he has screwed up everything else.  My point is that political elites are laughing at activists, and designing 'withdrawal' plans that are nothing of the sort.  And if Hillary Clinton's lead in the polls are to be believed, they should laugh at us since a plurality of Democratic base voters may want a liberal President but will be contented with better parking spots for Democrats in DC.

Anyway, I'm waiting for the outcome of the Senate vote with both hope and with some level of cynicism.  I'm deeply worried that the Senate will fail on the withdrawal language, and that Reid will then put up a clean supplemental amendment.  Reid doesn't necessarily have to do this, as he controls the floor.  I'm afraid though that he will or will be forced to.  And in that case, especially if the Democrats don't stop fast-track later this year, there very well could be third party organizing going into 2008 along anti-war, anti-globalization, and anti-immigrant Perotista/Naderite race-baiting lines.  This is not a prospect we should welcome, as it is in Harry Reid's power to prevent it and will damage the progressive movement and the Democratic Party as a whole.



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Send this diary to Reid! (none / 0)

Listen up, Harry!  Either you pass this with the timetable, or you can forget about '08 as a bunch of people will be siphoning off the Democratic vote with third parties.


by Phoenix Woman on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 03:22:26 PM EST

Re: Harry Reid, Iraq, and Third Parties (none / 0)

I think Matt's right that we need to get this supplemental passed with the timetable in it, but I still think he's ignorant to expect that the US can just walk away from Iraq, 100%. I'm glad that Obama and Edwards have shied away from what he calls a 'clean withdrawal' option, since anything that allows Al-Qaida sanctuary in Anbar province and leaves the Kurds to fend for themselves can hardly be called 'clean' in my book.

I just wrote a diary on this issue, referring to the Ian Welsh diary front-paged earlier. If anyone wants to refute me, please do so there:

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/3/27/1530 31/946


by James Gatz on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 03:41:56 PM EST

Re: Harry Reid, Iraq, and Third Parties (3.00 / 1)

I don't know Matt, I think you're going over board a bit, especially on Edwards and Obama.  I don't see how they are not talking about a progressive stance on national security.  Edwards has been talking about restoring America's moral leadership on things like global warming, world poverty, and human rights, about renegaging the world, and restarting diplomacy, plus a withdrawal from Iraq.

What is it you are looking for?


by MassEyesandEars on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 03:47:39 PM EST

Re: Harry Reid, Iraq, and Third Parties (none / 0)


I would highly disagree with both Matt and Phoenix Woman.  

To wit, here in the Sonoran Desert, we will be waiting for the Candidates to show up for a debate, and they will be asked, "Do you intend to issue out a public proclamation commencing with Fiscal Year 2009 Budget in which, as President, you will request only the sufficient amount of funds needed to complete a military withdrawal from Iraq within the first six months of Calendar Year 2009?"

And two points.  Who is "we" and of course, I am speaking about the Chicano Military Veterans Organization of which I am a part, and which occasionally speaks for the Privates, the Corporals, and the Sergeants.  As such, there are over 2 million men and women who have or are currently serving in our armed forces.  Add in our spouses, and our sons and daughters of voting age and we quickly reach into the number of votes approximating 7 million.

As a self-identified "aggressive" Moderate, I find that Moderates and Progressives, working in tandem, can move the 'debate' in our direction, if we are willing to aggressively challenge the Presidential Aspirants to issue forth their public statement to request only the funds neccesary to complete a withdrawal within the first six months of 2009.  Without doing so, our fate is placed in the hands of politicians, who may not have our "interests" in the forefront of their thinking.  

And sadly, the internet and the "netroots" has an attitude of "distain" toward special interest group politics, but interest group politics, is the only leverage available that will cause the Democrats to take our future into our own hands.

Otherwise, Anglos (Conservative Dems and Conservative Repubs) will continue to drag those of us who reside in the Community of "Racial and Ethnics", along for the ride and where the dead-end meets, none of us will know, and least of all, our Elected and Appointed Officials.

In any event, if the "aggressive" Moderates and Progresives cannot get one of the Presidential Aspirants to commit or pledge to our view, the Democratic Party will implode, and thus, we will be in Iraq for many years to come. And the alternative is to now begin scrambling to find a candidate or nominee that has our "interest" solely in their mind.

That's our choice for today and our choice for tomorrow.  


by Jaango on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 03:55:35 PM EST

Could Reid possibly do such a dumb thing? (none / 0)

Like I said over on Chris's thread, the vote today, tactically important as it is, does no irreparable harm to whichever party is the loser.

In particular - as McConnell acknowledged in his statements in the last day or so - the final text of the bill will be decided by the conference (and, thus, by the Dem leaderships, pretty much).

If the withdrawal provision in the Senate text is stricken, something noxious to Bush will be put into the conference report text.

Matt has contacts in and around the Capitol and I don't; if there's a real chance that the Dems wouldn't hang tough and produce a tough conference report - tough enough for Bush to object, at least, which really isn't tough at all! - that would be truly dismal news.


by skeptic06 on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 04:02:34 PM EST

Hagel opposing amendment to strike?! (3.00 / 1)

I just caught the end of Hagel's speech on C-Span via dialup - so I'm not best placed to judge!

But, from what he was saying - talk about the need for a bipartisan approach, etc - I gathered he was supporting the text on withdrawal in the substitute (and therefore opposing the amendment to strike).

Hagel voted against S J Res 9, the last Senate effort on Iraq.

He could be the guy to put the Dems over the top today...

Does this check out?


by skeptic06 on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 04:17:43 PM EST

Re: Harry Reid, Iraq, and Third Parties (3.00 / 1)

And the good guys win, with a little help from Gordon Smith and Chuck Hagel.  Cochran amendment, which would have removed the timetable for withdrawal, loses 48-50.


by RT on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 05:32:36 PM EST

Clinton's lead in the polls (none / 0)

even i'll admit they are name driven.  the clinton years look pretty great right now.

but if they are driven by her stance on iraq, then you have to consider that people aren't stupid.  or if they are stupid, you can't turn around the next day and call them smart for wanting the troops out of iraq.

they believe troops can be left in iraq to conduct strikes on real terrorists.  that you can distinguish between those terrorists and iraqis locked in a sectarian civil war.  magic bullets not required.


by Stewieeeee on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 06:25:00 PM EST


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