I've been suspicious of Reid's intentions regarding Iraq for some time, and so I was surprised when the chatter of a Senate bill with a withdrawal timeline as the most likely possibility started. There is a huge disconnect between elite and populist opinion on the war. On a popular level, the Democratic Party is working on legislation to withdraw from Iraq, and various candidates are proposing plans to 'withdraw' from Iraq. Within the elites, though, withdrawal from Iraq is considered something of a joke, and 'withdrawal' plans as happy talk PR packaging for American plans to stay in Iraq. I have seen no progressive caucus members or retired Generals making an issue of it in the context of 2008, which the vehicle through which the party has its debates.
On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton is by far the worst candidate here, saying that she will end the war while offering plans to keep troops in Iraq, as if there's some way to have American troops use magic bullets that only strike Al Qaeda operatives and vaguely named extremists. These magic bullets can also pierce concepts, like Iranian influence. Also, somehow all the problems in Iraq are the responsibility of the Iraqi government, which we had apparently no hand in setting up.
Still, this isn't meant just to pick on Clinton, as the other candidates aren't exactly clean, with Obama and Edwards keeping away from a clean withdrawal option and generally shying away from a progressive reframing of American national security policy. My point isn't that immediate withdrawal is the best plan; I'm no military strategist, and I have no doubt Bush would screw up a withdrawal as he has screwed up everything else. My point is that political elites are laughing at activists, and designing 'withdrawal' plans that are nothing of the sort. And if Hillary Clinton's lead in the polls are to be believed, they should laugh at us since a plurality of Democratic base voters may want a liberal President but will be contented with better parking spots for Democrats in DC.
Anyway, I'm waiting for the outcome of the Senate vote with both hope and with some level of cynicism. I'm deeply worried that the Senate will fail on the withdrawal language, and that Reid will then put up a clean supplemental amendment. Reid doesn't necessarily have to do this, as he controls the floor. I'm afraid though that he will or will be forced to. And in that case, especially if the Democrats don't stop fast-track later this year, there very well could be third party organizing going into 2008 along anti-war, anti-globalization, and anti-immigrant Perotista/Naderite race-baiting lines. This is not a prospect we should welcome, as it is in Harry Reid's power to prevent it and will damage the progressive movement and the Democratic Party as a whole.
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