Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Power Grab

This irritates me to no end:
Florida could move its presidential primary to as early as Jan. 29 -- a week before the "Super-Duper Tuesday" date of Feb. 5 that California set this month and that New York, Texas and a flurry of other states are eying -- after the State House of Representatives approved the change this week. Gov. Charlie Crist said Thursday that the State Senate should follow suit.
Florida is doing this, I guess, because they feel they don't already have enough say who becomes the next president. No state has suffered more than Florida from the indifference of presidential nominees to non-swing states. If Florida didn't have an early primary, it is highly doubtful that the presidential nominee of either party would ever spend a dime in the state, much less visit. It has been decades since Florida was the deciding state in a presidential election. This is truly a shame, because the air-tight voting systems in Florida fuel more confidence in the hearts of voters than those of any other state in the nation. While in other states, there really isn't a way to ever know who won an election, when people take office in Florida, you know that that person truly has the will of the electorate behind him or her. If more of our elections were like Florida's, then there wouldn't be any need for further election reform in the United States.

The truth is, that after the 2006 wave, Florida is the only state where the power-grabbing Republican political infrastructure survived more or less unscathed. A Republican succeeded a Bush in the Governor's office. Democrats made minimal gains in the state legislature, leaving enormous Republican majorities intact. Another election was stolen in Katherine Harris's old district. A child sex predator was outed, but Democrats still barely won his seat even though he remained on the ballot. Despite the consequences felt virtually everywhere else in the nation for six years of destructive, Republican power-grabbing, Florida remains an isolated stronghold of the acien regime.

For a state that already has so much sway over presidential elections, and which has such a horrendous track record of verifiable electoral infrastructure, a decision to leap ahead of virtually all other states in the primary calendar can only be characterized as a power grab in the tradition of Bush, DeLay, and Gingrich. It is also almost certainly an attempt to stick it to Howard Dean of the DNC, whose new primary calendar finally allows minorities such as Latinos, African-Americans and union members to have a say in determining the next president, which is an anathema to Florida's elites who have done everything in their power over the past decade to make sure that those groups are not even allowed to vote. The move is also a huge boon to the frontrunning campaigns of Rudy Giuliani and Hillary Clinton, both of whom have tremendous advantages in Florida. If Florida is on January 29th, it will be extremely difficult to see a path for any other candidate as long as Clinton or Giuliani manage to come within a close second in New Hampshire. As I type this, that is a criteria both candidates meet quite easily.

So, if you want to have a say in who becomes our next President, basically you are shit out of luck, unless you live in Florida. Then again, considering Florida's track record on elections, you are probably shit out of luck even if you live there. But don't worry: Jeb Bush's cronies will tell you who the Democratic and Republican nominees will be. And then, come November, they will tell you who the next President is. Relax. You can trust them.



Display:


Oh whatever (none / 0)

You people invited this kind of thing when you agitated for the end of the Iowa/NH primary primacy.

Now what do we have?  Anarchy!  

You reap what you sow!


by delmoi on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:08:13 PM EST

Re: Oh whatever (3.00 / 1)

Ah yes, frontloading is the result of Nevada holding a caucus between Iowa and New Hampshire, two states whose privileges should never be challenged.

This calendar was actually going to give candidates two weeks, instead of one, between New Hampshire and a wave of other states. It was a great improvement on 2004.

But hey, without rules, you would have friggin' anarchy, right Keith Richards?
by Chris Bowers on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:12:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh whatever (none / 0)

Actually, South Carolina is already scheduled for the 29th of January.


by blueflorida on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 01:16:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh whatever (none / 0)

So we shouldn't try to alter the arbitrary status quo, even with good reason, as one change in the system might indirectly lead to other changes in the system that we don't like.

Well there's a progressive mindset.


by Silent sound on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 02:37:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh whatever (none / 0)

A little anarchy now and then is a healthy thing; change or die.

Actually, the real irony is how many people screamed in fury over Terry McAuliffe's front-loaded primaries in 2004.

On the other hand, those who have been pushing for a single National Primary Day are coming close to getting their wish.  By the time all the states finish trying to leapfrog ahead of each other, it looks like we'll be at least on the verge of a National Primary Month.


by thepollyannafromhell on Wed Mar 28, 2007 at 03:27:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? (3.00 / 1)

While Florida shouldn't have moved up its primary, I can't help but think that the DNC is really to blame for this scramble to the front. Their decision to frontload the schedule with Nevada and South Carolina set off the scramble that we see now. I wrote a diary 7 months ago about how this was a bad idea. If the DNC wanted to enact real change in the process, they should have straight-up switched NV and SC for IA and NH.


by PsiFighter37 on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:17:23 PM EST

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? (none / 0)

But only Florida has decided that February 5th isn't good enough. And I stand by my rationale for why.
by Chris Bowers on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:25:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? (none / 0)

And the DNC has absolutely no leverage re. this decision?


by BingoL on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:35:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? (none / 0)

They can strip delegates, but it is an empty threat as long as the media still pays attention to the race, and as long as they relent and add the delegates back in later on (which they probably will).
by Chris Bowers on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:36:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? (none / 0)

Yikes. And there are no clever alternatives to deal with this?

Are candidates expected to abide by any standards set by the national party? The DNC can't lean in the candidates, if they have no power vis a vis the states? That is, they can't say: "We don't support any primary before such-and-such a date. If candidates spend more than X dollars to X days in any state with an unsupported 'early bird' primary, the DNC will withdraw suchandsuch from them."

Barring any leverage directly on the states, can the DNC lean on candidates?


by BingoL on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:53:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? (none / 0)

Well, for the 2008 race, it is clear that delegates are not picked early enough, else why would Florida have to move theirs up?

The obvious answer for 2012, is to have a national primary for the democratic candidates, in December 2008.

Uhhh, that way we don't suffer from any indecision!

To the larger point - will the slow creep forward of elections, keep happening?  Eventually, will a primary be prior to the year of the election??


by jc on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 01:27:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Florida's move (none / 0)

is simply a rational attempt at being relevant.

It will fail.  The real problem here is the arrogance of Iowa and NH.

The bottom line is that the primary season ended last year with NH.  If you track polling in other states in 2004, they all reacted to the results in Iowa and NH, and though there were contested primaries after those two states, the die was already cast.

Remember - Kerry shut down most of his operation in late 2003 and focused entirely on Iowa (at the suggestion of the machiavelli of the NH Primay, Jeanne Shaheen).  No matter, by the night of the NH primary he had reversed large Dean leads in places like California, and within a week after the NH primary was up big.

The frontloading of the current primaries will make Iowa and New Hampshire even more important.

What the big states need to do is move BACK from Iowa and New Hampshire, and make sure they go one after another rather than on the same day.  As late as 1992 the nomination had not been decided before Illinois and New York - which occured later in the process.  Better yet, a return to the 1972 or '76 schedule would give more states a role in the nomination, and would allow voters to actually learn something before about the candidates before voting.

And you are wrong on one point: Florida was a toughly contested race between Tsongas and Clinton in 1992.  


by fladem on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 02:44:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

California will never let this stand. We're going to send our governor back in time to move California's primary to last week. Of course, Hillary lost last week because the fact that time travel is possible proves that she would never be elected. If she were to win, life would be so miserable that people would be sent back in time to stop her.


by Bob Brigham on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:25:17 PM EST

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

I am waiting on which state will dare to hold their primary or caucus in 2007.


BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:26:10 PM EST

could be NH (none / 0)

IA seems not to be able to move to 2007, because party delegate selection rules say it has to happen in the same calendar year as the Democratic national convention.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 02:21:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: could be NH (none / 0)

Is there a national party rule against that or just an Iowa rule?
If there are no national party rules against it some state will likely try to move into 2007.
BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog
by robliberal on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 03:14:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

<Cue Terminator 2 music...> ;-) (none / 0)


by palamedes on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:27:06 PM EST

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

I'm in Florida so I'll add a few notes from my perspective

a) Chris Bowers is spot on about the Florida legislature
b) Gov. Crist isn't a Bush crony - he's distanced himself from Jeb Bush in a number of ways in a short time and come out for a paper trail for voting - a huge improvement
c) It was idiotic to jump NY and CA in Florida but I'm guessing other states will either follow suit and match Florida

I don't know the mechanism but FL just voided New York and California's action. Why wouldn't they just match the FL date?


"Nothing seems to embarrass the political class today." - Bill Moyers
by joejoejoe on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:38:57 PM EST

Re: Michigan (3.00 / 1)

Michigan has vowed to move its primary if any state violates the Feb 5th date.  Once Michigan moves to Jan 29, then what?  anarchy indeed


by McFrederick on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 01:21:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan (3.00 / 1)

Actually, Michigan has threatened to move to the top of the sequence if any state violates the current calendar at all. It's implicitly directed at New Hampshire.


by blueflorida on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 01:26:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Michigan (3.00 / 1)

Dogs and cats living together!  


by jc on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 01:27:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

I concur.  While I am typically impressed with the commentary and posts on MyDD, Bowers post seems to less well-informed than usual.  Crist is very different from Jeb Bush.  In particular, many feel that Crists administration is much more open than Bush's were, and they like the fact that he actually spends some in Tallahassee.

As for the griping about FL moving up its date, I cannot defend FL's abissimal record of handling elections.  However, that was never one of the criteria set forth by many bloggers for moving up the dates on several primaries.  

I thought the major motivation for earlier primaries was that Iowa and NH don't represent the US as a whole.  I know I did make that up, but I am not sure if I heard this from Bowers.  

In anycase, it would be difficult to argue that the voters of FL are not a good model for the vatoers in the US.  I believe this is why they call it a swing state.  Its hard to argue that SC is any more repsentative of the US than FL.

my 2 cents,

shlenny


by shlenny on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 01:22:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

I generally agree with you about Florida being more representative of the U.S. than S.C. (though you would not be able to tell by our elected officials). The problem that I have with Florida having such an early primary is that it is such a big state and it costs so much money to advertise here that it immediately disqualifies so many candidates who cannot compete with the "frontrunner's" money machines. I also do not think that our voting machine issues will be solved by Jan. 2008. I wish they could be but I do not have enough faith in our Republican government to enact real progressive change.


by nibit25 on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 01:29:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

More than the legitimate debate about Florida's demographics and voting history, I think the bigger story here is that, just like California, Florida is such a massive state that volunteer/grassroots/field efforts can make almost zero difference compared to paid media.

The notion that any state like Florida can increase their influence in the process by having an early primary is a fallacy.  Their influence on the process will be limited to the extent that 30 second paid TV sound bites reflect real candidate policies -- because 30 second paid TV sound bites are the only way that even PRIMARY voters in Florida will ever get to know candidates.

In addition to Chris's good points about the questionable democratic process in Florida, the fact is that it costs over $1,000,000 per week of state wide TV in Florida.  Whatever the Florida legislature thinks this is about pales compared to the fact this moves just increases the dependence on big money.  Although, hats off to Florida because finding ways to increase candidates' dependence on money takes a lot of ingenuity at this point.

One upshot is that Gov. Crist has promised a paper trail and is looking to eliminate electronic voting machines.  Who knows if that will actually happen since Crist is a fair weather friend, say anything that sounds good type of leader.  BUT, there is a chance the process will improve in Florida a little.


by rcipw on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:46:00 PM EST

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

I agree 100% about the lack of effect that the grassroots can have on statewide politics. Florida is so divided between the (I realize this seems kind of weird) liberal south and conservative north. This makes it hard because the southern activists are preaching to the choir and the northern activists are preaching to a wall.


by nibit25 on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:56:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)


Florida is such a massive state that volunteer/grassroots/field efforts can make almost zero difference compared to paid media

There are ten media markets in Florida. It costs $1M  a week for a decent ad buy in Miami alone. Guess what, extensive paid media isn't happening and ultimately will make little difference in the outcome as compared to free/earned media. Endorsements from elected officials and general pandering on issues that Floridians care about (everything from coastal erosion to menacing insurance cos to sugar cane) help with earned media. And, winning prior contests helps, too. Plus, candidates will still have to do something to GOTV and especially in the various retirement communities in central and south florida, grassroots can make a difference.


by blueflorida on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 01:24:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

I agree that some GOTV needs to happen, but that is something every campaign can do.  The problem is that the frontrunners may well cruise into Florida and the other big states with more than $100M in the bank while the others mayb have $20M or less.  The $10M that a major candidate can spend in Florida will matter a lot more than any earned media or SFL condo GOTV effort and will dwarf the other campaigns.

We saw Gov. Dean squander his monetary advantage in Iowa, because in smaller states there is a declining return on the amount of money you can pour in and in the end it matters the quality of your staff, your message, your discipline, and your gotv effort.

Florida moving up the primary (as well as California, New York, and, to a lesser extent, Michigan) is a serious erosion of the retail politics which is so vital in our process.


by rcipw on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 01:33:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

What retail politics?  The U.S. has 300 MILLION people.  Being able to shake a few hands in New Hampshire is a completely useless skill for a Presidential campaign.  Raising money, obtaining quality free media, and using your money effectively is not.  The idea is to win, not debate a white paper at the local Waffle House.  Anything that minimizes Iowa and NH is better--even this naked power play by Florida.

I don't think the MSM/press/punditry will skip Florida either (provided this comes to fruition).  They'll be glad to get out of the cold of NH and Iowa.


by Double B on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 01:47:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

You're right that debating a white paper at the local Waffle House doesn't help a campaign.  But I think it's an important skill for a President.

At some level it isn't just about winning, but being able to govern.

I find something refreshing about the fact that the leaders in both parties still have to come into living rooms and answer real questions from regular folks.  Even if I never get a chance to do it, the fraction of the process I could 'get control of' by voting in an early primary in a massive state is minimal compared to knowing that whoever you are, you still have to knock on doors and kiss babies, so to speak.

I guess in some ways it's an extension of our representative democracy.  You're also right that in a nation of 300 million people it can be impossibly hard to penetrate the spin and to have an individual voice that matters.  I think it's an important test for our leaders to have to do it somewhere.

Major primaries like this only increase the sheild of TV and professional campaigns that is built between candidates and representatives and the people they represent.

The presidency is such a major race that the eventual nominee will not have trouble raising money.  Look at Sen. Kerry:  he had to mortgage his house to stay in the race and could not compete with the George W. Bush money machine. However, another $100 million would not have helped his campaign.  There are other important tests in the primary than just how much money you can raise.

At the end of the day, it's not just about winning, it's about being a good president.  I still believe that.


by rcipw on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 02:14:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

First off, you don't get to be President if you don't win.  I agree that they are two different skill sets, but you have to win the Presidency before you get to be President.  Therefore campaigning is paramount.

It seems to me Kerry was quite good at the retail politics--he sold the people of Iowa and NH at least.  He was terrible at everything else in the campaign except the debates.  Edwards, Dean, or Clark could have won that election and instead we got Kerry because he was good at "retail" politics.  Thank you Iowa and New Hampshire.

It's not 1976 anymore.  Hell it's not 1992 either.  Voters can get their information in such a variety of ways now (as opposed to 3 networks and their local newspaper).  That's the skill you need (to govern as well)--not being able to chat it up at the church.


by Double B on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 02:33:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

I believe that Kerry lost Iowa to Bush.


by shlenny on Wed Mar 28, 2007 at 12:31:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

Actually, campaigns can't do any GOTV at all.  They need actual people for that.


by thepollyannafromhell on Wed Mar 28, 2007 at 03:30:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

In fact (none / 0)

What they have guaranteed is that voters will simply ratify the results in Iowa and NH, because you can't hope to organize Florida, and a decent advertising effort is beyond the reach of even Hillary.


by fladem on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 02:33:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Some of your finest snark. (none / 0)

Bravo, my friend.  Bravo.


BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics
by Robert P on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 12:50:13 PM EST

Re: Florida Primary Obnoxious Power Grab? (none / 0)

Florida is a state that has seen a marked increase in voters abandoning both major parties in the wake of the 2000 and 2004 disasters.  Since 2002, about 45 percent of new Florida registrations have been third party or unaffiliated. In comparison, Republicans have netted 29 percent of new registrations and Democrats only 26 percent (Tampa Tribune, August 26, 2006).

I would guess this move is mostly an effort to lure/force voters back into the two-party fold. If so, I predict that it will not prove very successful. More like the opposite, I'm thinking.


by thepollyannafromhell on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 02:03:00 PM EST

States, not the DNC (none / 0)

State legislatures, not the DNC, set primary dates if the machinery of the state, i.e. regular polling places, are used.  It's not what I want, but it's just the way it is.  I can't think of a realistic way to change it, but I'm not feeling very creative today.  Anybody else?


by howardpark on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 05:10:03 PM EST

Re: Florida Primary On January 29th? Obnoxious Pow (none / 0)

Governor Crist, a Republican who was recently elected, agreed and said he would urge the Senate to approve Jan. 29, too. Technically, the House plan would shift Florida's primary to the first Tuesday in February, or seven days after the New Hampshire primary, whichever comes first, though no sooner than the second Tuesday in January. New Hampshire's primary is currently scheduled for Jan. 22.
----
Frigidaire Parts
by galin on Tue Oct 16, 2007 at 11:06:41 AM EST


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