Senate 2008: As Dems Expand Field, GOP Admits Concerns

Even as states like New Hamphire, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine and Oregon appear to be the top targets for Democrats looking to extend their narrow majority in the United States Senate, races in states previously assumed to be not even possibly competitive continue to crop up -- a bad sign, no doubt, for the Republicans, who already sound quite bearish on their chances in 2008.

Last week the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, John Ensign, came close to saying uncle when he reached out to the Republican National Committee to help him fund his committee's actions in 2008, a move that would be unprecedented in a presidential cycle. Not but a few hours later news emerged out of Colorado that the Republicans' favored candidate in the state's open Senate race, which appeared headed to be one of the top if not the top race of the cycle, had decided not to run. And just today, in an interview with The Washington Times Sen. Ensign conceded that his party faces an uphill climb to even gain the single seat necessary to be in the position to retake the Senate (let alone the two seats that would be required if the presidency, and thus the vice presidency, went to the Democrats).

Yet even as most signs point to a difficult slog for Senate Republicans, Democratic recruitment efforts have been fairly successful thus far, even in states that traditionally lean Republican, and new polling indicates that at least one very entrenched GOP Senator could be headed for a tougher challenge than previously expected.

On Friday, Marilyn Geewax reported in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that it appears things are a go for a challenge to Georgia's freshman Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss as DeKalb County CEO and former state Rep. Vernon Jones has begun taking the steps to officially enter the race. No doubt Georgia has been a difficult state for the Democrats in recent cycles and no one currently expects the Georgia Senate race to become one of the most competitive in 2008. That said, by finding a credible candidate to run, the Democrats at least open up the possibility of picking up a win and perhaps put themselves in a position to make use of a George Allen-like or Jim Bunning-like implosion by Chambliss.

A similar situation appears to be brewing in Alabama, where Jeff Sessions, the most conservative member of the Senate in 2005 and the fifth most conservative member in 2006, according to National Journal, could face a more robust challenge than anticipated from the state's Agriculture and Industry Commissioner, a fairly progressive and populist politician named Ron Sparks. I won't delve too deeply into the details about Sparks' possible candidacy save for passing on a link to a great post on Sparks over at Swing State Project but will note that by running a real candidate in Alabama the Democratic Party can get people in the state at least thinking of voting for a Democratic Senate candidate and, like in Georgia, put the Dems in the position to capitalize on mistakes by the Republicans.

In New Mexico, the situation is slightly different today as the Democrats have not yet found a candidate to commit to run for the Senate -- or even one who is allowing much public speculation. That said, new polling out of the state from SurveyUSA (also via SSP) shows that the prosecutor purge scandal is taking its toll upon the state's senior Republican Senator, Pete Domenici. In just the last month, Domenici's approval rating has fallen 7 points as his disapproval rating has climbed 8 points as both Democratic voters and Independents show their unhapiness with his role in pressuring a United States Attorney to infuse partisan politics into his prosecutions. While Domenici's approval rating is still north of 55 percent, even if barely, his trend should be extremely worrisome for Republicans who can ill afford to have to defend yet another Senate seat in 2008.



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Re: Senate 2008: (none / 0)

Any chance the Dems could persuade Iglesias to bolt the GOP and challenge Domenici as a Dem?  That would be an automatic way to ensure that the prosecutor firings, and Domenici's role them, remain in the news until 11/08.


by sparkyfry on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 06:52:56 PM EST

Wikipedia says: (none / 0)

"On the television show Hardball with Chris Matthews on March 22, 2007, Iglesias indicated that he was not interested in a future political career, and would be more interested in a media job."


by Silent sound on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 07:29:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Wikipedia says: (3.00 / 3)

  Not to mention it's a terrible idea.  Iglesias is a conservative Republican.  I'm not sure why we're obsessed with party-switchers.  We should be promoting a Democrat to the Senate.


Jim Oberweis
by cilerder86 on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 07:41:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate 2008: (3.00 / 1)

What about Rep Tom Udall from Santa Fe?  (Not to be confused with Mark Udall, who will run for Allard's seat in CO.)


by Mimikatz on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 07:54:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Tally so far... (none / 0)

1.) New Hampshire (check)
2.) Maine (check)
3.) Minnesota (check)
4.) Colorado (check)
5.) Oregon (check)
plus
6.) New Mexico (Domenici continues to decline)
7.) Virginia (Warner retires)
8.) North Carolina (Dole is toast)
9.) Alabama/Georgia (we get lucky in one)
10.) Texas (Cornyn will be tough, but in Democratic year?)

That's not even including possible retirements of Hagel (NE), Craig (ID), Cochrane (MS), Roberts (KS) and Stevens (AK).

Could we be fillibuster proof?  Could this be real realignment?


by exLogCabin on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 07:00:19 PM EST

Re: The Tally so far... (3.00 / 1)

Do not forget McConnell's possibly competetive race.


by nibit25 on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 07:31:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate 2008: As Dems Expand Field, GOP Admits (none / 0)

Vernon Jones, unfortunately, is a crook. His administration in DeKalb County has been rife with cronyism and corruption. He'll drop like a stone if he's the nominee in Georgia. If I still lived there, I'd be forced to vote for some obscure, third party half-wit.


by rich on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 07:46:31 PM EST

Re: Senate 2008: As Dems Expand Field, GOP Admits (none / 0)

Agree w/rich on Vernon Jones --- if not so vociferously.   Vernon Jones is a bit of a joke around here (I live in DeKalb cty).  Also - outside of Atlanta, Athens and a couple other spots, Georgia is one of the reddest states in the Union.  Saxby's stump speach could simply be the word "maccaca" repeated for 30 minutes and he would probably win by a landslide.  

Shirly Franklin, the mayor of Atlanta is one of the truly great mayors in America and, if she wanted, could get the nomination down here, but a Black woman would run into a LOT of trouble outside the perimeter.  Remember - this is the home of Newt, Ralph Reed, Bob Barr, and that idiot who couldn't remember the 10 commandments on The Colbert Report.  Also, note that Newt was not representing a rural district, but - at least the parts I know - a very wealthy, educated district that is considered part of the Atlanta MSR.


by gmattson on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 10:05:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate 2008: As Dems Expand Field, GOP Admits (none / 0)

There is no doubt Mayor Franklin would be a stronger candidate than CEO Jones.  For that matter, either Rep. John Barrow (GA-12) or Rep. Sanford Bishop (GA-2) would make Saxby sweat.

All in all, Bishop would present our best chance, factoring in geographic, demographic, and ideological appeals.  How likely is it though, that he would give up a super-safe House seat?


Take out the trash. Down with Saxby Chambliss!
by CLLGADEM on Tue Mar 27, 2007 at 06:15:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Senate 2008: As Dems Expand Field, GOP Admits (3.00 / 1)

Democrats had a number of late entries into successful Senate races last year.  In Ohio, Brown didn't enter the race until October 2005.  While the draft Webb campaign started in late 2005, Webb himself didn't enter the Virginia Senate race until Feb 2006.  In Montana, Tester enter the race in May 2005.  I don't believe Democrats ought to give up on getting a winning candidate for any Senate seat.  Given the worsening climate for Republicans with little evidence that Bush will pull a Schwarzeneger, I expect 2008 to be even more favorable to Democrats than 2006 was.  It will be hard for the Republican nominee to distance themselves from Bush and his policies when the Republican base still supports them.  On the other side, no matter who the Democratic nominee is I doubt even a triangulating Hillary will be able to keep the Democratic base from ousting another group of Republicans with a little help from Independent voters.


by msstaley on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 07:53:32 PM EST

Re: Off topic (none / 0)

See the answer here.

Scroll down for the video.


by Mimikatz on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 07:56:19 PM EST

still wondering why so little? (none / 0)

http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/3/23/1828 20/112


by jujube on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 09:25:14 PM EST


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