Even as states like New Hamphire, Colorado, Minnesota, Maine and Oregon appear to be the top targets for Democrats looking to extend their narrow majority in the United States Senate, races in states previously assumed to be not even possibly competitive continue to crop up -- a bad sign, no doubt, for the Republicans, who already sound quite bearish on their chances in 2008.
Last week the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, John Ensign, came close to saying uncle when he reached out to the Republican National Committee to help him fund his committee's actions in 2008, a move that would be unprecedented in a presidential cycle. Not but a few hours later news emerged out of Colorado that the Republicans' favored candidate in the state's open Senate race, which appeared headed to be one of the top if not the top race of the cycle, had decided not to run. And just today, in an interview with The Washington Times Sen. Ensign conceded that his party faces an uphill climb to even gain the single seat necessary to be in the position to retake the Senate (let alone the two seats that would be required if the presidency, and thus the vice presidency, went to the Democrats).
Yet even as most signs point to a difficult slog for Senate Republicans, Democratic recruitment efforts have been fairly successful thus far, even in states that traditionally lean Republican, and new polling indicates that at least one very entrenched GOP Senator could be headed for a tougher challenge than previously expected.
On Friday, Marilyn Geewax reported in the Atlanta Journal-Constitution that it appears things are a go for a challenge to Georgia's freshman Republican Senator Saxby Chambliss as DeKalb County CEO and former state Rep. Vernon Jones has begun taking the steps to officially enter the race. No doubt Georgia has been a difficult state for the Democrats in recent cycles and no one currently expects the Georgia Senate race to become one of the most competitive in 2008. That said, by finding a credible candidate to run, the Democrats at least open up the possibility of picking up a win and perhaps put themselves in a position to make use of a George Allen-like or Jim Bunning-like implosion by Chambliss.
A similar situation appears to be brewing in Alabama, where Jeff Sessions, the most conservative member of the Senate in 2005 and the fifth most conservative member in 2006, according to National Journal, could face a more robust challenge than anticipated from the state's Agriculture and Industry Commissioner, a fairly progressive and populist politician named Ron Sparks. I won't delve too deeply into the details about Sparks' possible candidacy save for passing on a link to a great post on Sparks over at Swing State Project but will note that by running a real candidate in Alabama the Democratic Party can get people in the state at least thinking of voting for a Democratic Senate candidate and, like in Georgia, put the Dems in the position to capitalize on mistakes by the Republicans.
In New Mexico, the situation is slightly different today as the Democrats have not yet found a candidate to commit to run for the Senate -- or even one who is allowing much public speculation. That said, new polling out of the state from SurveyUSA (also via SSP) shows that the prosecutor purge scandal is taking its toll upon the state's senior Republican Senator, Pete Domenici. In just the last month, Domenici's approval rating has fallen 7 points as his disapproval rating has climbed 8 points as both Democratic voters and Independents show their unhapiness with his role in pressuring a United States Attorney to infuse partisan politics into his prosecutions. While Domenici's approval rating is still north of 55 percent, even if barely, his trend should be extremely worrisome for Republicans who can ill afford to have to defend yet another Senate seat in 2008.
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