Puncturing the Gunbelt

Chris blogged about Pew's massive data dump a few days ago.  It's a fascinating study with big implications for the parties - the Republicans could be headed for a landslide wipeout in 2008 if the public continues to think what it thinks about the two parties and Bush continues his temper tantrum thirty percent strategy.

That said, there are some fascinating stats that hit on longer term trends.  For instance, there's this.

The public's evaluations of personal financial satisfaction is increasingly split along partisan lines and the gap between Republicans and Democrats is the largest it has been since the Pew values surveys began 20 years ago. Roughly eight-in-ten Republicans (81%) say they are largely satisfied with the way things are going for them financially, compared with much smaller majorities of Democrats and independents (54% each). A decade ago, there were only modest partisan differences in satisfaction with personal finances, and in 1994 Republicans, Democrats and independents expressed nearly identical levels of satisfaction with their finances.

This is very strange, and disturbing.  Paul Rosenberg pointed me to this book, the Rise of Gunbelt America, on the military industrial economy.  Here's the summary.

Since World War II, America's economic landscape has undergone a profound transformation. The effects of this change can be seen in the decline of the traditional industrial heartland and the emergence of new high tech industrial complexes in California, Texas, Boston, and Florida. The Rise of the Gunbelt demonstrates that this economic restructuring is a direct result of the rise of the military industrial complex (MIC) and a wholly new industry based on defense spending and Pentagon contacts. Chronicling the dramatic growth of this vast complex, the authors analyze the roles played by the shift from land and sea warfare to aerial combat in World War II, the Cold War, the birth of aerospace and the consequent radical transformation of the airplane industry, and labor and major defense corporations such as Boeing, Lockheed, and McDonnell Douglas. Exploring the reasons for the shifts in defense spending--including the role of lobbyists and the Department of Defense in awarding contracts--and the effects on regional and national economic development, this comprehensive study reveals the complexities of the MIC.

I've always been suspicious that the culture war was a proxy for economic and political control, and I've also noticed that the rise of the blogosphere roughly correlates to an emerging economic instability for white liberals.  If you accept, as many of us do, that right-wing arguments always mean the opposite of what they say, then taking the 'free market' mantra suggests that there is an incredibly controlled socialist economy in our midst.  And lo and behold, there is, but not for Democrats.

In other words, it's not just that there are two Americas, it's that there are two different economies within America.  The religious and cultural 'difference' between Republicans and Democrats come from entirely different incentive models.  I'm not determinative about this, in that I don't think it's all economic, nor do I think the economic structures came first and the culture emerged around it.

What is clear though is that we need to begin to understand economic policies and tax structures as tools in remapping America.  There is a moment for the next ten years, during which a non-Southern culture controls the political machinery of the Federal government and the South's veto can be overcome with a brutal series of threats to the region's excessive Federal subsidies and reliance on socialist corporate welfare.  If we're smart, we can puncture the institutional architecture that allows the Gunbelt to thrive and build a new America along the networked rule-based freedom-enhancing tolerant lines that exist in the bulwark areas of Blue America.  

I mean, even wingnuts agree that the food in San Francisco is awesome.  



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Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (none / 0)

Puncture the Gunbelt.  You have to be kidding.

The current worship of anyone wearing a uniform,
the militarization of our culture, the fear that questioning anything about the war means not "supporting the troops," the election to office of anyone who is in the military and the support without question of said candidates by the Democratic Party and us...

That's the Gunbelt and we are behind it 100% even when we think we aren't.


by jd2 on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 11:01:24 AM EST

A Lot of This Poll is Just Wrong! (3.00 / 1)

All it proves is that people have POLITICIZED the question "Are you better off than you were 4 years ago?" That's not a non-partisan question!

If the answer is "No" what does that say about the Bush presidency? That it's been a failure to produce economic prosperity.

"Do you feel optomistic about your personal finances?" has become just as politicized. There's simply no real-world cause that would make 80% of Republicans happy about their personal circumstances while only 54% of Democrats were. Especially when the majority of strong Republican identifiers are now working class and the working class has been totally hammered economically for many years now. They should be reporting that life is hard and getting harder.

And they do. Statistics also show that large numbers of people think that life for their children will be worse than it is for them, the opposite of the American dream.

If a Democrat wins election in 2008, you can bet that close to 80% of Republicans will suddenly be "dissatisfied" with the same measures.

These idiots know they voted for Bush twice and that the rest of the country thinks he's a moron and that they're taking a poll. They know that means what they're really being asked is "Do you think Bush is doing a good job with the economy?" No matter what the question is, they answer with "I like Bush."

They're the 30% dead-enders who will never admit they were wrong no matter what!

So, when they are asked a question they believe is "political" they give a political answer that shows their dog-like loyalty to the Bush regime.


by Cugel on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 01:47:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (none / 0)

Yeah.  That's great.  Let's just stereotype a huge segment of the population.  There sure as hell aren't any blacks or Hispanics living in those states.  And every white person down there completely fits the mold of people that you are talking about.  Let's just go forward with discounting people due to stereotypes about how people from their states behave.  


"You say the world has lost it's love I say embrace what it's made of" -Dar Williams
by Valatan on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 03:18:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (none / 0)

Also in common for Texas, California, and Florida =
high incarceration rates, highest numbers on death row, high numbers of private prisons and jails, prison-building boom.
by mrobinsong on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 11:01:29 AM EST

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (none / 0)

New trends: Movies that show dead bodies, that's a new trend in the culture of death and warriors. Death culture symbols are next, like SS skull and bones. Lots of TV shows and movies about horrific crimes and victims from a pathologist point of view.  


by mrobinsong on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 11:14:49 AM EST

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (none / 0)

Um... yeah, they've never showed dead people in the movies before.  And there have never been TV shows about crime, either.  You really hit the nail on the head there.


"It's not enough to say you'll be ready from Day One - you have to be right from Day One."
by schroeder on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 12:32:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I am going to steal this line from you (3.00 / 1)

The culture war was a proxy for economic and political control

That metaphor is just about perfect.


"Once in a while you get shown the light In the strangest of places if you look at it right"
by molly bloom on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 11:25:07 AM EST

Re: prosperous GOPs (3.00 / 1)

Part of the relative gap between Dems' and Goops' reported prosperity has to be simply that Dems are so disgusted with the whole kit 'n' kaboodle that their default answer to poll questions is the negative one. (Some Goops might default the other way.)

Also, Dems might finally be fed up with the MSM's knack for looking in a cloud of bad poll results for Bush and digging out and emphasizing the one thread of a silver lining.  So, they exaggerate the negative, whatever the question.  I'd at least think about doing the same.

This is a down side of basing political debate and policy choices on 800-person poll samples. As people start to comprehend that their responses might actually make a difference, they'll exaggerate (four syllables meaning lie) to promote their own political preferences.


by drlimerick on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 11:25:56 AM EST

It's Already Hasta La Vista Time (none / 0)

Well, both 'sides' here are part of a culture of doom. The last of the 'high tech' jobs will soon be exported to China and India. We have not been making televisions, apparently not one, since -- lets just say I read about this over a decade ago. Once there is no money left for the government, there will be no money left for the arms makers. Already, Great Britain's Health Service is in utter shambles, so you can be sure people will not want to hear that they are spending good money sending boats full of spooks shuttling between Iraq and Iran. (And getting arrested by the Iranians.)

Bush and Re. Moon are moving to Paraguay. Hasta la vista, babies!!!


by blues on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 12:01:25 PM EST

Re: It's Already Hasta La Vista Time (none / 0)

Anastasio Somoza thought he was free and clear when he moved to Paraguay too after scuttling out of his bunker in the middle of the night.  Go look up the history for this thug.  You'll see lots of parallels, right down to the destruction of Manugua in an earthquake and the resulting corruption.  It pains me to think how much a banana republic we've become.


by VizierVic on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 01:51:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (none / 0)

The South has had population growth (attracting wingnuts from elsewhere--think Newt Gingrich) and economic growth (e.g., transplanted factory jobs) on it side for a generation or so. These dynamics are changing. The demographics of the South are undergoing rapid change because of Latino (and to a lesser and more localized extent), Asian immigrants. It will take a generation for those changes to effect elections, although there already are effects in Florida & Texas. Key employers in the South are leaving or decline-0-jobs are being offshored and employers like Delta Airlines and Coca Cola are in varying degrees of long-term structural trouble. The South has never been totally down or out politically, but the economically dynamic character of the region is becoming hobbled in places like Georgia & North Carolina. A lot of the decline is in smaller businesses (GOP territory) or large corporate entities like Delta which are nominally non-partisan, but functionally Republican. Outside of Florida and perhaps Virginia, I wouldn't see long-term electoral gains for Dems, but the structure of the national GOP will be harmed by these changes.

Military contracting scandals seem like the next wave of investigation and any meaningful enforcement will affect the South, including Northern Virginia where a lot of this stuff is headquartered. This will certainly harm the fundraising base of the GOP.


by rich on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 12:04:42 PM EST

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (none / 0)

The theory is interesting, but it doesn't do much to explain the discrepency in perception of financial prospects between Republicans/Democrats who are essentially of the same class (Which I believe is something that the Pew data brings out as well)

From an overall perspective, the MIC theory makes sense - but it doesn't explain the differences between groups who, in theory, have roughly equivalent financial prospects.

My personal theory would be that liberals tend to have a bigger picture view of their own economic future - including factors such as the environment and rising healthcare costs which would put a damper on their optimism.


by dopplex on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 12:06:36 PM EST

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (none / 0)

The theory is interesting, but it doesn't do much to explain the discrepency in perception of financial prospects between Republicans/Democrats who are essentially of the same class (Which I believe is something that the Pew data brings out as well)

Different economies - creative/tech versus military.  They are not in the same class, it only looks that way.


by Matt Stoller on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 12:29:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes! (none / 0)

This is certainly a very tough nut to crack, but we don't have a prayer if we don't focus on the problem.

One thing we have to do is demonstrate how terribly destructive it is, as well as being ineffective at its purported goal.  Which is why--in addition to the obvious moral imperative--we need to place a very high priority on taking care of veterans.

Quite frankly, it is simply impossible for the war machine to take good care of them--as the recent Frontline, "The Soldiers Heart" reminds us, yet again.  How can it?  It exists on death, and they are the damaged survivors, who have been seared by death's presence.

Another thing we need to do is expose the the breadth and depth of the scandals involving the military-industrial complex.  The Cunningham/Wade/Wilkes/Foggo scandal is only the tip of the tip of the iceberg here.  Blackwater and Halliburton are virtually nothing but scnadals, from top to bottom.

And, for those wanting to do even more reading (Hint! Hint! Hint, Matt!), I'd suggest Suburban Warriors: The Origins of the New American Right by Lisa McGirr, which studies the development of conservatism in Orange County--the most intensively subsidized county in the Gunbelt in its early formative years.  


by Paul Rosenberg on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 12:29:59 PM EST

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (3.00 / 1)

Also, let's not forget geography. Democrats are more likely to live in urban areas, where cost of living is much higher and temptations to spend are much greater. Meanwhile, Republicans are more likely to live in rural areas, where cost of living is low (unbelievably so, to a city boy like me) and temptations to spend are far fewer.

Naturally, then, Democrats might feel less financially secure than  Republicans.


by PhilosopherKing on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 12:32:52 PM EST

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (3.00 / 1)

I think, but don't have back-up for the thesis, that the per capita income differences between blue and red America remain as regions, but that whites in red America are more likely to enjoy greater gap over black residents than their blue-state counterparts.  Put simply, "blue black America" in places like Maryland is enjoying the fruits of economic growth whereas Mississippi - for all of it's vaunted "job growth" - remains largely a pit of racial economic apartheid, relative to each region's white neighbors.  The wealthiest majority-black jurisdiction in the country is Prince Oeorge's County, certainly no stranger to government spending either directly or with the massive number of military contractors in the metro area, with some large number of them in nearby Northern Virginia.

Seattle is pretty blue as well, and has a relatively well-off black community (not a large one, not a majority, but one of long standing.)  Again, a massive government-spending complex on both war goods and miscellaneous contracting (e.g. Microsoft and its trail of subcontractors, etc.)


by Crablaw on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 12:44:59 PM EST

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (none / 0)

Military Keynesianism: What is that and why should I care?


by Pericles on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 12:50:10 PM EST

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (none / 0)

And that is why the DC Liberals (the issue groups etc) are poison to progressive politics - they eat from the same bowl as the MIC.


by flyoverperson on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 12:59:52 PM EST

Huh? (none / 0)

"Economic Instability for white liberals"? Are you talking about outsourcing or something?  That has always been way overblown, and California and Boston are dominated by Liberals to begin with.

Plus, I really doubt the Democrats are going to do anything about the military industrial complex.


by delmoi on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 01:18:21 PM EST

Re: Huh? (none / 0)

There is substantial worry about health care insurance on this and other blogs according to the small surveys I've done.


by Matt Stoller on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 02:33:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (none / 0)

Interesting concept re: the two economies - a tech/creative economy whose members lean Democratic, and a socialist/military economy whose members lean Republican.

Another of your thought-provoking posts on our sociopolitical environment. However, I'm beginning to worry that as you pursue the Unified Field Theory of American politics, that you are beginning to leave even some of your most loyal fans (like me) behind. You may need to find the simple formula that makes it clear to the rest of us (like Einstein's E=mc^2), or else you may need to do a lot of filling in the blanks for the rest of us to catch up.

Keep thinking, keep writing, I'll keep struggling to comprehend.


by Dr K on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 04:44:26 PM EST

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (3.00 / 1)

Matt- the roots of conservaism don't get along too well with liberal ideas like capitalism.  As long as they are driving further and further toward radical conservatism, further and further control of the culture and greater society, they will not engage in a socialist economy, but a conservative economy.  A conservative economy is a network of mutual obligation and favors- think patronage, nepotism, and feudalism.  This really has nothing in common with socialism, except government control.  
If this is really just old-school conservatism rearing its ugly head, then the culture war is not a proxy for greater economic and political control, but part of the same beast.
"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR
by jallen on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 06:50:17 PM EST

Re: Puncturing the Gunbelt (3.00 / 1)

Several people have hinted that your analysis is too simple. Many of the high tech good jobs in the South come from military industry and many of the good working class jobs are in the active-duty military (they are often better than other available jobs). But the military-industrial complex doesn't provide all the jobs. Much of the economy has been (and still is) held up by cheap labor -- first slave labor, then exploited black people, and now exploited immigrants from Mexico and Latin America. Also, the oil/chemical industry provides much of the money in Louisiana, Texas, and Southern California. And the prison industrial complex (another government boondoggle) also exploits people.

So many of the main drivers of the economy in the Republican South are socialized (military and prison) industry, socialized labor (active duty military), exploitation of cheap labor, and exploitation of cheap natural resources. This is a lot different than the free market stereotype and, as you say, by pointing this out and threatening their socialized/exploitive economic model, we may be able to get some important concessions.

And don't write off the South. Immigration from the North and from other countries is changing the makeup and ideology. There is much potential there eventually, if not in 2008.


by RandomNonviolence on Sun Mar 25, 2007 at 07:02:06 PM EST

"small government" Republicans? Ha! (3.00 / 1)

Almost without exception, the red states take in more in federal spending than they pay out in taxes, and the reverse is true for the blue states.  The Republicans rail against "big government", then spend like mad while their constituents feed at the public trough.  Democrats are at least consistent - we believe in good government, and we foot the bill for it.

Also, a friend of mine is convinced that one of the primary motivations behind the Iraq War was to start a new Cold War with Iran, to justify our insane amount of military spending.  That idea's starting to not look so crazy.


"It's not enough to say you'll be ready from Day One - you have to be right from Day One."
by schroeder on Mon Mar 26, 2007 at 12:44:28 AM EST


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