From the time Colorado's Republican Senator Wayne Allard announced his retirement back in January, it looked like the state's Senate election would shape up to be the hallmark open race of the cycle, with top-tier nominees from both the Democratic Party (Rep. Mark Udall) and the Republican Party (former Rep. Scott McIniss). But now could it be that the Colorado Senate race is shaping up to be more like Illinois' uncompetitive open seat race of 2004? Chris Cillizza has the scoop for The Washington Post.

Former Colorado Rep. Scott McInnis (R) is expected to end his Senate bid as soon as today, according to sources familiar with his thinking who asked not to be identified because they did not have permission to speak for the McInnis camp.

McInnis's exit from the race comes less than one month after he formed an exploratory committee to run for the seat being vacated next year by Sen. Wayne Allard (R-Colo.). McInnis did not return a call placed to his Denver office Tuesday seeking comment. And it's worth noting that several sources who said they expected him to abandon the race refused to rule out the possibility that he would change his mind, insisting that McInnis is notoriously unpredictable about his political plans.

Those who might dismiss the comparisons between Colorado in 2008 and Illinois in 2004 would be correct to note that there is at least one candidate waiting in the wings -- former Rep. Bob Schaffer -- who is stronger than Alan Keyes was three years ago, but how much stronger he is remains to be seen. In 2004, Schaffer was trounced in the Republican primary for the state's other Senate seat when it became open, and while this does not necessarily tag him with the stench of a loser, it cannot instill much confidence in his capacity to win -- particularly given that he, as best I can tell, has no money in his campaign account while McInnis is still sitting on close to $1 million. For comparison's sake Udall, the likely Democratic nominee, had more than $1.2 million on hand as of the end of 2006 and could potentially post even higher numbers by the end of the first quarter. True, money is not everything in a campaign; Pete Coors, the eventual Republican Senate nominee in the state in 2004, spent close to $8 million during his race (less than his Democratic opponent Ken Salazar, but not by an overwhelming margin) yet still managed to lose in a year in which Republican Senate candidates around the country tended to win close races.

Looking at the broader implications of McInnis' decision to drop out of the race in Colorado, Markos is correct to link this to the other big Senate news of the day, that the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, John Ensign, is begging the Republican National Committee for help to pay for Senate contests in 2008, a move that would upend the precedent for party committees not to invest in congressional or senatorial contests in presidential years. When coupled, these two news items should wipe out any optimism Republican donors and activists might have about their party's chance of retaking the Senate in 2008.

Update [2007-3-21 18:5:15 by Jonathan Singer]: From The Rocky Mountain News, it's official -- McInnis it out.