Congressional approval ratings overall are falling, back to a pre-election level, 28 approval and 64 percent disapproval. Since Gallup didn't ask why approval ratings are falling, it's difficult to know what's going on. There are a couple of hints - Democrats are the group responsible for much of the fall in approval ratings, so it makes sense to focus on the issues that Democrats care about when trying to understand what's going on.
In late February, pollsters noticed a disconnect between Pelosi's personal approval ratings and that of Congress as a whole.
Of those who self-identified as ideologically liberal in today's poll, the job approval rating for Congress was 49-46. Again, some of that could be left-over residue of anger at the 12-year reign of House Republicans. But it does reveal that the first seven weeks has not produced a sea change of popularity among liberals and their support for Congress.But ideological liberals HAVE thrown their lot with Pelosi as an individual, giving her a 68-19 approve/disapprove rating among the group.
And moderate voters who tilted away from Bush, the Iraq war and congressional Republicans last fall -- who've yet to fully embrace the new Congress as a whole -- are in some cases are voicing a more than 2-to-1 approval of Madame Speaker.
Ideological moderates approve of her job performance 55-26, while self-identified independents support her work 45-34 so far.
There are several structural disadvantages Democrats are facing in Congress. One is the media environment, which is tilted against them. Two is a pollster/consultant class that is constantly telling moderate members to hedge their bets and mumble around the edges instead of simply opposing Bush and the Iraq war.
But some of the slide in approval is self-inflicted. The communications strategy for the caucus as a whole has been absolutely horrific. Progressives aren't talking to activists and focus on cable news, while Rahm Emanuel, who is in charge of communications for the Democratic caucus as a whole, can't create a coherent storyline about the debates in Congress. The non-binding resolutions were not effective in communicating intent.
Much of this is natural. Iraq is a disaster, and there is nothing good here. There is no light at the end of a tunnel. There is no solution. There is only the recognition that our country went horribly awry the last six years, and we must pay the price for it through sacrifice and a renewed dedication to humility and human rights.
If the supplemental bill passes the House, I expect this slide to reverse itself. Ultimately, though, this Congress can only succeed if it is willing to go beyond the traditional boundaries of discourse and punish Bush for what he has wrought.
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