Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing?

This is interesting.

A forum at the Harvard's Kennedy School of Government got unexpectedly interesting tonight, when Hillary Clinton pollster Mark Penn lit into Barack Obama on the Iraq war, contending that, for all his talk of how he opposed the invasion in 2002, "there's not much of a difference" between the way Obama voted and the way Clinton voted, once he got into the Senate.

Penn pulled out quotes from 2004 in which Obama--then a state senator--had said he was not sure how he would have voted, had he been in the U.S. Senate at the time that it authorized the invasion. In another instance, Penn cited a quotation in which Obama had told the Chicago Tribune during the 2004 Democratic National Convention that "there's not much of a difference between my position and George Bush's position at this stage."

"When they got to the Senate, Senator Obama's votes were exactly the same" as Clinton's, Penn said. "So let's not try to create false differences, when we both agree it's time to de-escalate, when we both agree it's time to end the war."

This is rather unfair from the Clinton camp, as Obama was very clear during his campaign for Senate that he was against the war.  In a charitable moment when he did not want to bash Kerry who was at the time running for President, Obama said that he didn't have all the information at his disposal that Senators did and so he didn't know how he would have voted were he in the Senate at the time of the vote.  That's a far cry from actually voting for the war in Iraq, as Clinton did.

As Yglesias notes, Mark Penn was advocating a centrist strategy with Al From on Iraq as late as 2005.  And now he's angry to be criticized from the left.  I'm told by the Clinton camp that the war doesn't make a difference in polling of primary voters, that most people don't think that Clinton should apologize for her vote and that a fair number think she did the right thing in voting for the war.  Clinton's people argue that the public and the Democratic primary voting universe accept the 'I trusted Bush and he screwed me' defense.  And the numbers as they stand today bear that out.

What I don't get, if the Clinton argument is true, is why people like Penn are so defensive about Iraq and Obama.  Why are Clinton surrogates falsifying information about their opposition in a way meant to confuse voters to the candidates' relative positioning on the war?  Maybe it's a generic paranoia about criticism, an explanation I can actually buy.  Clinton believes in a rapid response style of politics where no charge goes unchallenged and everything is spin and perception.  Paranoia is required for this model of politics.  Or maybe Obama is rising in the polls - Rasmussen has him at only five points behind Clinton nationally, though that's almost certainly overstated.

If I had to guess, though, I think there is something valuable about having been right on Iraq in the first place.  I'm not sure how to poll for it, but I can't imagine that the issue of Iraq is particularly far from the dramatic hunger for a different kind of politics.



Display:


she's in it to win it (none / 0)


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 02:24:22 PM EST

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

I think it is entirely fair to oppose Hillary on the grounds that we don't want her people back in charge of the DNC. These dipshits embarrass their candidate and make a mockery of of our Party.

If you don't want these people installing Harold Ford as Chair, polling on the best way to triangulate, legitimizing Fox, ending the 50 State Strategy, and again losing congress then oppose Hillary.


by Bob Brigham on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 02:25:23 PM EST

If I were Robert Gibbs (none / 0)

after taking a shower, I'd make sure every talking head, pundit and radio loudmouth knew that the democratic primary frontrunner can't win general elections.

Photo Sharing and Video Hosting at Photobucket

is Hillary Muskie, Hart, or Cuomo?


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 02:37:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

who votes how you would vote? (none / 0)

who is mcgovern!


-cars melt earth-
by common terry on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:14:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Hillary could be worse than McGovern (none / 0)

for the democratic primary.

up until the McGovern election in NC you could vote straight party ticket for every office.

However, NC changed the rules starting with that election because they didn't want McGovern to lose every democratic seat in the state


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:19:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

OK, but why those changes? (none / 0)

Let's add some insight here.

We can toss out 1971 and 1987.  The Muskie and Hart self-destructs were exceptional events.

In 1975 and 1991, Kennedy and Cuomo didn't run.

In 1975, Wallace (like Jackson in 1987) was a guy who potentially was going to get a lot of votes, but wasn't going to win the nomination, no way, nohow.

The only relevant case is 2003, where Lieberman had the early lead in the polls on name recognition - but it's not that relevant, because he faded once the race took on definition.  We've already reached that point in this cycle, and while name recognition has a lot to do with Hillary's initial lead, it's not evaporating now that the game's on.


by RT on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:20:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

how about her 46% never vote for her (none / 0)

numbers?

or that she is the preferred GOP candidate when all the GOP candidates are self described lemons that don't motivate anyone to vote for them?

Hillary Clinton could outdraw the devil, Falwell says
By Peter Wallsten
Los Angeles Times

http://seattletimes.nwsource.com/html/po litics/2003272973_jerry24.html

I know you have an answer as to why Hillary will motivate GOP voters just as much as Edwards or Obama right?


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:47:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Carter was not a frontrunner (none / 0)

he was staying in houses of supporters. his campaign couldn't afford hotels.

Clinton in 1992 was not a frontrunner either... regardless of how why and whatever you want to say - the democratic frontrunners don't win general elections and Hillary is THE frontrunner


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:49:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

Tragic indeed are Mr. Stoller and the anti-Clinton acolytes.  Mr. Penn spoke the utter truth: Senator Obama was not at the time in a position to have voted on the incursion, and had he been, to the neutral observer (not the blogger acolytes) it is rather obvious that his position would have resembled Senator Clinton's.

Whereas we who believe that Senator Clinton's progressive credentials are as exemplary as any of her peers, and whereas we who endorse her candidacy can see the extraordinary qualities of any of her Democratic presidential rivals, the same cannot be true of the puritanial opposition.  

They loathe all things Clinton, as did their predecessors, prior to and for the duration of the administration of President Bill Clinton.

As I often posted, I have recollections of all administrations since Eisenhower's, and would match the progressive legacy, the summit achievements in foreign diplomacy and fiscal solvency obtained in the Clinton terms matched against any from Ike onwards.

Much of the rest of the world already acknowledges the great success of the Clinton terms.  If there is a miasma of hate in this country surrounding the Clintons, that is only because the opposition has an inability to cope with their success and with the limitations of those they are wont to embrace, without objectivity and balance.


by lambros on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 02:42:23 PM EST

Ass Kisser Alert! (none / 0)

I fully agree that Obama's position as a state senator in Illinois precluded his deliberations from the intense media scrutiny that others in the Senate received. Moreover, a state senator from Illinois probably doesn't have access to the same kind of information that a U.S senator might. That said, I take objection to you notion that is obvious that Obama would have voted the same way? What is the basis for this reasoning? Did you divine how Obama would have reacted in an alternate reality?

News flash - there is no such thing as a neutral observer. So quit whacking people who are going to show up and volunteer for Hillary if she wins the nomination. We're on the same side, dumbass!


by crazymoloch on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 02:52:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

Are you being paid by the hour, or is it more of a per smear thing?


by HSTruman on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 02:56:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

Do neutral observers have powers of telepathy that can pierce into alternate histories where Obama was senator in 2002? You claim to know his mind so well that you are sure how he would have voted?

Then you go spinning the right wing hate of Clintons being the same as the purported MyDD bloggers' hate? Because, you know, these dastardly MyDD bloggers are right wing shills in disguise, right?

Bill Clinton's terms were a success, agreed. Nobody got all they wanted, neither the left wing or the right wing, but he left the place in better shape than he got it. But Bill Clinton is not running today. Do you think Hillary would let him run the country? I think she'd be pretty quick to remind him who is the Prez this time around.

I don't think Hillary would make a great president, but even a decent try is better than the current one. I do think she would be a better president than anybody the Republicans are going to nominate. Of course, even Kucinich fits that description.

Clinton's advisors seem to be living in the early nineties, maybe she does too. Those days are gone. I like Obama partly because he is of my generation and he is living in the present. And he did oppose the war when running for Senate at a time when it wasn't yet clear to everyone what a disaster it was. And really, what is so bad in giving your Presidential candidate a pass in an interview? Would you like him more if he'd slammed Kerry?


by kvenlander on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:15:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

No Obama would have voted no, and would be in even better shape to capture the nomination.


by yitbos96bb on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:21:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama's overplaying the war vote (none / 0)

Hillary's going to turn his position into a weakness....

TPMcafe has a piece suggesting Obama's rationale against Iraq had zero to do with WMDs... and that in Obama's book he assumed saddam DID have WMDs

Hillary will muddy the waters as much as possible about her and obama's differences..

On the NYTimes one of the blog commenter's suggested Obama is treating the war vote like a gold star he got in 2nd grade and hasn't matured beyond that....


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:34:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama's overplaying the war vote (3.00 / 1)

That's not true about WMDs. Obama said that he didn't believe that Saddam had any WMDs that posed an imminent threat. Which is entirely consistent with his past positions. Greg got it wrong over at TPM.

Obama was right about Iraq at the beginning, more than any other candidate. That's a point in his favor certainly. He's also been a stronger voice against the war than Hillary since his election to the Senate. His current position and Edwards's is much closer, though, afaik, fwiw, and a bunch of other acronyms.


by BriVT on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:04:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

God bless ya for sounding like an Internet activist from 1890.


by BriVT on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:55:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

Dear Mrs. Penn,

I'm sorry people are picking on your son.


by Bob Brigham on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:47:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

I still don't get why everyone thinks  she's ahead, HRC has topped out at 35% in the polls and at this point she's not getting any new supporters, she's in deep trouble and Marc Penn knows it, as low info dem voters learn that she voted for the war and Obama was agianst it from  the start she will further collapse unless she's successfull in muddying the waters with lies and halftruths unleased by trash like Penn.


Obama! because 51% isn't enough!
by nevadadem on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 02:50:54 PM EST

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

The HRC people are attempting a move from Rove's play book: go after your opponent's strength.  Substantively, Sen Obama's early opposition to the Iraq war is his only major substantive claim to fame, and the one thing that his supporters can point to as a rational reason for backing him.  If the HRC can dent Sen Obama's I-was-against-the-war armor, perhaps they can slow his momentum in the Dem primary.  Although, frankly, I think that Sen Obama's narrative is pretty well solidified by now -- HRC people should've gone at Sen Obama on this along these lines sooner (caveat: it is waaay early, so there's plenty of time for things to change).  Let's not completely dismiss the substance of the case that HRC people are making, though: since assuming his seat in the Senate, Sen Obama's position on Iraq has not been significantly different than HRC's, and Sen Obama has certainly not gone out on  a limb to stake a visible anti-war position since he assumed his seat.  Now, yes, Sen Obama did not have to cast a vote on the Iraq war resolution, and he did make some strong statements against the war before he entered the Senate, so, yes, "That's a far cry from actually voting for the war in Iraq, as Clinton did."


Vox Mia -- Adding My Voice to the Chorus
by bedobe on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 02:53:06 PM EST

I just diaried that (none / 0)

here
http://www.mydd.com/story/2007/3/20/1564 /95354

before I read your comments


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:21:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I just diaried that (none / 0)

Recommended...

I'm sure that this is something that we'll be reading/hearing/YouTubing about:

Hillary must go after Obama - and as Rove would go straight after his "purity" on the war.  Muddy the waters, confuse etc... until Obama's war position is a weakness.  

e.g. In Obama's book he clearly accepts Saddam has WMDs but doesn't think they're an imminent threat.  Hillary and Co.  could easily paint this into weakness.

http://electioncentral.tpmcafe.com/blog/ electioncentral/2007/mar/20/did_obama_be lieve_iraq_had_wmds


Vox Mia -- Adding My Voice to the Chorus
by bedobe on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:31:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

Then again maybe their attacks play into Obama's strategy.... the more she snipes the more he can say she is business as normal whereas he is real change.... yet there are still responses disproving the notions which aren't nasty but convincing.  


by yitbos96bb on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:27:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

anecdotal evidence from the ground in IA (3.00 / 1)

For a certain percentage of Iowa caucus-goers, having voted for the war resolution is an absolute deal-breaker. Working my precinct and my circle of friends in 2003/2004, I knew plenty of Dean and Kucinich supporters who were there mainly for that reason.

At the same time, I knew a fair number of people who were for Dean in the spring and summer of 2003, telling me there was no way they could support anyone who voted for the resolution. Several of them ended up caucusing for Kerry or Edwards, to my surprise.

When I talk to Iowans who are supporting Obama or leaning in his direction, a few say it's because he was against the war from the beginning.

A larger number say things like "I like the way he talks" or "When he talks, it makes me proud to be an American." Some of these people can't tell me anything about Obama's positions or why they prefer him to Edwards, the candidate I am supporting. I was with one friend last week, telling her why I am backing Edwards, and she said, referring to Obama, "Well, I'm an average Joe, and I like the way he talks." I swear that is a direct quote!

Obama talks, people feel good. I think there is a Reaganesque quality to his candidacy right now. Before Obama fans start flaming me, no, I am not saying Obama is another Reagan--just that many people are drawn to him as a charismatic speaker without knowing much about where he stands.

In the netroots, probably most Obama supporters think Iraq is very important. In the grassroots, I am not convinced it's as important.


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:02:54 PM EST

Not after Hillary's done with Obama (none / 0)

making his hesitancy against the war into a rovian weakness they won't


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:22:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Not after Hillary's done with Obama (none / 0)

Obama's a lot tougher than HRC gives him credit for.  And his younger supporters will produce many more viral videos on HRC and other such stuff... things Obama himself would never do.    She picks this fight and she's going to wish she hadn't.


by yitbos96bb on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:32:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I like the Gibbs response (none / 0)

re: geffen..

while some thought it wasn't ideal to bring up the lincoln bedroom he clearly won that round according to all the pundits.


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:36:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

There are probably only.... (none / 0)

.... two or three bona fide candidates on Iraq. Edwards and Clinton in authorizing the war showed that one or both of the following guided their decision making....

(1) The pre-emptive invasion of a foreign country is a valid means of safeguarding the nation AND exhibited poor judgment in trusting Bush with such an onerous task.
(2) Were afraid that voting against a military operation would put them on the 'wrong side' of the national security debate

Am I missing something here? They either lack political courage or have poor judgment. I don't care that Edwards apologized. I'm not looking for a President who makes Iraq-sized mistakes and apologizes. Get it right the first time.

Obama wasn't really in the spotlight during the Iraq debate and I still say that we don't know how he would have voted had he been in the Senate.

Unfortunately, on Gore and Dean have any credibility on Iraq and neither of them is running. What's my point? Supporters of the 'Big Three' are wasting valuable oxygen having an Iraq debate amongst themselves.


by crazymoloch on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:05:55 PM EST

Re: There are probably only.... (3.00 / 1)

Neither Gore nor Dean was in the Congress to vote against the IWR - that puts them in the same position as Obama was in 2002.

Obama has no less credibility as an Iraq war opponent than do Gore and Dean.


by Sam I Am on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:18:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: There are probably only.... (none / 0)

oh, come on.  to equate Obama as a STATE senator with Al Gore in 2002 is really fangirlish.  Silly.  

Compare who Gore was at the time with who Obama was.  Gore took a massive risk.  


McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.
by jgarcia on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:48:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: There are probably only.... (none / 0)

But consider that Obama was and is on his way up, whereas Gore seems to be out of the game. The temptations regarding public comments are quite different.


by kvenlander on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 05:05:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The people who got us into this mess... (none / 0)

are not the ones who will lead us out.  

This paraphrase from my favorite ad of 06 comes from Jim Webb.  

It is fair to say that those who created this mess ought not be given the chance to clean it up.  For me, this means Hillary and to a lesser degree Edwards.  While it is true that Obama was serving in the State Senate at the time,  over half our party, half our members in the House and the Senate had the wisdom to vote against this war- and it was a vote for war.  If your only defense was "I got tricked by Bush" I do not intent to flame but that is one lame ass talking point.  

http://youtube.com/watch?v=-YVDOO61f7Q


McCain/Palin: Old and inexperienced
by cspanjunkie on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:06:17 PM EST

Re: The people who got us into this mess... (none / 0)

It is fair to say that those who created this mess ought not be given the chance to clean it up.  For me, this means Hillary and to a lesser degree Edwards.

Why, exactly? Edwards co-sponsored Lieberman's war resolution.


by domma on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:53:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The people who got us into this mess... (none / 0)

To be blunt because he was very nice to my mom last week (we live in Iowa) and explained to her in detail his view on the war then and now.  Politics is not a science but and art.  Edwards won my mom back and in turn made me stop dogging him- for the moment at least.    


McCain/Palin: Old and inexperienced
by cspanjunkie on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:20:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

where do you live in Iowa? (none / 0)

Was your mom supporting Edwards in 2004?


Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.
by desmoinesdem on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:29:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: where do you live in Iowa? (none / 0)

yes she did- I live in Keokuk.  


McCain/Palin: Old and inexperienced
by cspanjunkie on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:56:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The people who got us into this mess... (none / 0)

Understood. Thanks for the reply.


by domma on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:36:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

Two articles on the same subject:

Washington Post:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2007/03/19/AR2007031902165. html

Clinton (N.Y.) voted for the October 2002 resolution authorizing the Iraq war, while Obama (Ill.), then a state senator, publicly opposed the war. The exchange marked the most substantive clash to date between the Obama and Clinton campaigns and reflected frustration among Clinton advisers over the Illinois senator's use of the issue to distinguish his candidacy.

Penn, responding to a question about Clinton's vote for the resolution, used the opportunity to attack Obama, arguing that he had said in 2004 that he was not sure whether he would have voted against the resolution had he been in the Senate.

"Obama said he didn't know exactly how he would have voted in Congress because he didn't have the full intelligence," Penn said.

Axelrod quickly interrupted Penn and disputed his interpretation of events, charging that the Clinton strategist had distorted the meaning of what Obama had said at the time.

"I really think it is important, if we're going to run the kind of campaign that will unify our party and move this country forward, that we do it in an honest way and that was not an honest" statement, Axelrod said.

Boston Globe:
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/washin gton/articles/2007/03/20/obamas_record_s hows_caution_nuance_on_iraq/

WASHINGTON -- As Senator Hillary Clinton continues to take heat for her vote authorizing the invasion of Iraq, her presidential rival, Senator Barack Obama has used his long-running opposition to the war as a cornerstone of his campaign, telling enthusiastic supporters that he opposed the war from the beginning -- a claim neither Clinton nor the other top-tier Democratic contenders can make.

But a review of Obama's record during his 26 months in Congress reveals that he has taken a more nuanced and cautious position on the war than the full-bore opposition.

Campaigning for the Illinois Senate seat in 2003 and 2004, Obama scolded Bush for invading Iraq and vowed he would "unequivocally" vote against an additional $87 billion to pay for it. Yet since taking office in January 2005, he has voted for four separate war appropriations, totaling more than $300 billion.

Last June, Obama voted no to Senator John F. Kerry's proposal to remove most combat troops from Iraq by July 2007, warning that an "arbitrary deadline" could "compound" the Bush administration's mistake. And last week, he voted for a Republican-sponsored resolution that stated the Senate would not cut off funding for troops in Iraq.

Though liberals want Congress to stop funding the war in order to end it, Obama has indicated that he will vote for the latest $95.5 billion Iraq appropriation when it comes before the Senate this spring.

Aides say the senator's opposition to the war has been strong and consistent. They said he opposed the initial $87 billion as a Senate candidate because the White House wanted to set aside $20 billion of it for reconstruction, and Democrats feared the money would be distributed in no-bid contracts.

Obama has voted for war appropriations because he wants the troops provided for fully, said Bill Burton, an Obama spokesman. Aides said that Obama has criticized the war several times early in his Senate career, but that he delayed rolling out specific plans and major Senate speeches while learning about his new office.



Vox Mia -- Adding My Voice to the Chorus
by bedobe on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:09:16 PM EST

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (3.00 / 1)

I actually think this is something the Clinton campaign has to do to neutralize Obama's advantage on Iraq. The other thing is to pose the question, probably in one of the debates if the format allows, what did Obama know about Iraq and WMD's that the US intelligence community, the senate, the house, the us military, and foreign intelligence agencies didn't know in 2002? Obama, while being against the war from its inception, hasn't really acknowledged that there was indeed overwhelming (albeit wrong) intelligence on Iraq. Would he, in the face of that intelligence (we didn't know it was wrong at the time), do nothing while the US was being threatened?

Expect the Clinton campaign to go on the offenseive regarding Obama and Iraq. They have to. If they don't, they will lose ground in the primaries.

But, Iraq isn't Hillary's only problem. Her biggest problem, in my opinion, is that she's an establishment Democrat. She's a professional politician, seeking to gain power for power's sake. And that's where Obama's biggest advantage is, he's an outsider. A fresh face offering fresh ideas and a new way forward. I don't see how the Clinton camp can counter that. It will be interesting to see if that alone will be enough to put Obama over the edge, i doubt it though.


by freaktown on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:31:12 PM EST

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (3.00 / 1)

Except that the UN said the intelligence wasn't convincing and the stuff I saw in the media made me call Bullshit as well.  Bush did not make the case for war, the inspectors said it was BS.  


by yitbos96bb on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:38:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

Tell that to the Clinton campaign. I'm sure they'll reconsider their stand and admit Obama was right...


by freaktown on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:55:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

In Obama's book according to tpmcafe's excerpt he "assumed" there were WMDs and was still against the war.

take that as you will


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:42:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (3.00 / 1)

On page 294 of his book, The Audacity of Hope, Obama did appear to say that he thought there were WMDs in Iraq, but that the war had to be opposed, anyway:

Like most analysts, I assumed that Saddam had chemical and biological weapons and coveted nuclear arms. I believed that he had repreatedly flouted UN resolutions and weapons inspectors and that such behavior had to have consequences. That Saddam butchered his own people was undisputed; I had no doubt that the world, and the Iraqi people, would be better off without him.

What I sensed, though, was that the threat Saddam posed was not imminent, the Administration's rationales for war were flimsy and ideologically driven, and the war in Afghanistan was far from complete.


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 03:45:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

Obama knew what I believe ALL the Dems and probably some of the Republicans knew, that the administrattion was lying and manufacturing their rationale for war.  In one of the 2004 primary debates, Wesley Clark said the same thing "Everybody knew what was going on." You should have seen the expression on Kerry's face when he actually said that out loud.  Andrea Mitchell also slipped up and said it on Hardball about a year or so ago.  They weren't misled, they knew it was bs but, 'to protect their political viability within the system' (see Bill Clinton national guard letter)they made a POLITICAL CALCULATION that they had to vote for it so as to not appear (repeat after me) 'weak on national security'.

Now whether Obama would have voted with those Dems or the 22-23 Senate Dems, including the senior senator from Illinos, Dick Durbin, who voted against it, he might not even know for sure but he has stated publicly numerous times going back to 2002 that he would have voted against it, even as a senate candidate in a crowded primary when the conventional wisdom at that time was that it was too risky to take that position.


by jg40 on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:04:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Obama did not vote with Durbin in 2006 (none / 0)

when Durbin supported Kerry-feingold.. so to assume he would have voted with durbin in 2002 seems illogical


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:22:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Obama did not vote with Durbin in 2006 (none / 0)

nowhere in my post do I make that assumption, in fact I allow for the fact that even Obama might not know, for sure, what he would have actually done...


by jg40 on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 05:11:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (3.00 / 1)

I'm not sure how well that'd play out, actually.  There were lots of people across the ideological spectrum who were very skeptical of the war before it started.  The idea of going into Iraq seemed so absurd on its face I couldn't believe we'd actually go in until I saw it on TV.  It took no great leap of imagination to understand that giving up on bin Laden and pulling most of our forces out of Afghanistan before it was stable was a really, really bad idea.

If anything, I think the "What did you, a state senator from Illinois, know that people on the Senate Intelligence Committee don't?" could very easily backfire if it's reframed as an insider/outsider thing.  Obama could say, essentially, he didn't have his so head filled with bullshit by spending the past decade in Washington that he could spot bald-faced lying when he saw it.


by L Boom on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:07:48 PM EST

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

Woops, previous comment was supposed to be a reply to Freaktown's comment upthread.


by L Boom on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:09:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Rapid Response (3.00 / 2)

http://my.barackobama.com/page/content/i raq/

I love the response from Obama's site.  Video of him in his own words in 2002.  A well stated and "clean" account of his stance, as well as the interactive "Timeline of Opposition."  While the Hill Shills can try to blur the war and her vote all they want, we have seen once again that Obama's team is ready to play hardball and drop the hammer.  What I am looking forward to, and if I worked for Obama this is would exploit, is this October- five years to the date of the Senate vote.  I can see Obama blanketing Iowa and NH with ads and mailers that mark his "Timeline of Opposition" as well as Hillary's evolving timeline of weak-kneed pandering.  


McCain/Palin: Old and inexperienced
by cspanjunkie on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 04:18:52 PM EST

Re: Rapid Response (none / 0)

They put this together after Bill Clinton muttered to NYT about their coverage?

Wow. They are on the ball. Good, and well measured response.


by kvenlander on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 05:11:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

I would guess that as time goes on, people are going to be more and more impatient about the war and thus more and more receptive to Obama's position, so doing everything possible to undermine it as a legitimate counterpoint to Clinton is vitally important for HRC's campaign.


by Lucas O'Connor on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 05:01:33 PM EST

Except Obama and Clinton have (none / 0)

identical votes on how to end the war..

that was part of Camp Clinton's point


Call it "Medicare Option" not public option
by TarHeel on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 08:03:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Except Obama and Clinton have (none / 0)

which is why they need to not allow Obama to be the anti-war candidate.


by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Mar 21, 2007 at 09:58:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

Note the anti-Clinton hatred of these several posts.  Note the fundamental difference: a Senator Clinton supporter can note the qualities of her opposition, whereas her opposition cannot note the qualities of her.

Note, as well, what occurs when one points out that regardless of the argument, hindsight is very easy.  Unless one were in a position to vote yea or nay on that Iraq incursion, all the rhetoric advancing that one would surely have voted nay will remain ever just rhetoric.

Dare to digress from the virulent anti-Clinton group which permeates this and other sites, and be prepared to be called a "dumbass."

Of course, one with a more mature perspective and a more mature vocabulary, would never need to utilize that expression.

And therein is the great weakness of the Clinton opposition.  They believe that if they slash and burn their way to a nomination, that all their collective invective directed toward the Clintons, singly or in tandem, will then be forgotten as they slash and burn their way to a general election campaign.

It cannot be forgotten.  For every Clinton supporter they label a "dumbass," that memory will linger.  They are oblivious to the fact that in truth they are taking on a huge political base whose center is the only successfully reelected Democratic President since FDR.

For them, this does not matter.  They believe so strongly in their need for evisceration, for "cleansing" the Democratic Party of anyone outside the framework of their own self-defined purity of position, that they haven't the forethought to understand that are creating a whole army of disappropriated.  

That legion of disappropriated cannot be brought back to a group who never ceased to hurl insults and invective.

This is not the fault of the highly educated and well-spoken Senator Obama.  It is squarely the fault of those who would post epithets like the "dumbass" comment of above.

For those of you more level-headed and less intolerant of diverse political views, remember this as you witness who finally does emerge triumphant in 2008 and in 2009.

This is what we who believe in Senator Clinton, like President Clinton before her, understand all too well.  To achieve a general election victory, one cannot be an ideologue.  One cannot engage in evisceration with the expectation that those eviscerated will return to the fold.

Mr. Penn argued quite persuasively that it is futile to argue what would have been one's vote cast from the perspective of hindsight.  That is an axiom, not an opinion.  A more mature political voice would not have found it necessary to counter with the word "dumbass."


by lambros on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 05:55:15 PM EST

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

lambros,

Here is Obama's original quote per TPM:

"In a recent interview, he declined to criticize Senators Kerry and Edwards for voting to authorize the war, although he said he would not have done the same based on the information he had at the time.

''But, I'm not privy to Senate intelligence reports,'' Mr. Obama said. ''What would I have done? I don't know. What I know is that from my vantage point the case was not made.''

But Mr. Obama said he did fault Democratic leaders for failing to ask enough tough questions of the Bush administration to force it to prove its case for war. ''What I don't think was appropriate was the degree to which Congress gave the president a pass on this,'' he said."

link: http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/horsesm outh/2007/03/obama_quote_tha.php

Making an issue of that is silly because there's hardly anything there given the full quote and the context.

And the Iraq war authorization vote does matter a great deal. It was one of the most important judgment calls within our lifetimes and Hillary blew it. And she didn't just vote for the authorization but she backed the invasion and opposed a redeployment until fairly recently.

Meanwhile, Obama not only opposed the war, but he gave an amazing speech on why he opposed it wherein he nailed what would (and eventually did) happen. Hillary cannot make a claim to such foresight and is therefore less deserving of the Presidency at least with respect to this important issue.

Furthermore, holding her responsible for her vote by backing another equally liberal candidate is not a petty gesture but a vote against similar wars in the future. If Obama wins the primary and the general then the message the establish Dems will take from it is that backing the war cost them the Presidency and hence they'll think much harder next time before sending US troops over to foreign lands.

Peace.


by End game on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 06:44:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

Sorry, we who are simply prescient, not simply Clinton supporters, know better.  

Senator Obama, for all his qualities, is simply not the superior candidate, and the Iraq incursion vote, given the misinformation emanating out of the paranoia of 9/11, was not in itself the seminal vote of our time.  

The purloined presidential elections of 2000 and 2004 were the seminal events, and these derived out of an attempt to circumvent the Constitution, a direct function of the inability of anti-Clinton forces to accept their rise to power.

For many in the Senator Obama group, life has been far easier, having traversed the travails of the generations which preceded them.

But, like the earlier blogger who labeled me a "dumbass" for my divergent observation, among the many Senator Obama supporters (not Senator Obama himself, who is far too educated and literate a candidate to engage in such diatribes) there are those who haven't the maturity to comprehend success in the political process.

The Clintons have battle scars, long and deep.  Senator Obama is a brilliant but much pampered neophyte on the political scene.  

We veterans of political wars know what his supporters could never understand: he will be redfined and devoured, precisely because he has no political battle scars, precisely because he is still much too green.


by lambros on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 08:36:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

If the goal is to send Washington an anti-war message then Obama is clearly the superior candidate in that respect. And not just because of a single vote on Hillary's part but because she and the DLC positioned themselves as hawks on foreign policy - now we'll see how that works out for them...

Whether or not Obama's too green remains to be seen. So far he seems to be doing just fine imo. If he makes a mistake people will of course say it shows his political inexperience. If an experienced candidate makes a mistake then people will say it was because of something else. But they all make mistakes, even experienced political consultants do, and the amount of experience doesn't seem to be the best predictor of future gaffes and miscalls - just think back to Kerry 2004.

Indeed, I'd say some of the veteran politicos are still fighting their last war, the wrong war, without realizing how much things have changed. McCain comes to mind... and perhaps Hillary too to some extent.


by End game on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 10:11:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

My beef with Clinton, and every other now anti-war Dem who voted for the war, is that none of them ever checked out the feasibility of hiding a nuclear weapon program from U.N. inspectors aided by U.S. satellite photography.  You do this by consulting with appropriate nuclear engineers.  Basically, a significant program can't be hidden.  (Disclosure:  I earned my first degree in engineering physics in 1959, and promptly left the field, obtaining a doctorate in mathematics.)  Even without practical experience, I still know there is only one economic way to build a nuke -- use plutonium milked from the fuel rods of a nuclear power plant.  The Israelis destroyed Iraq's only such plant before it was operational several decades ago.  Small nuclear piles work only slowly, and leave a radiation signature at the site even if they are dismantled.  The alternate technology, separating U-235 from U-238, requires thousands of expensive vibration-free centrifuges.  The investment is massive, the technology is difficult, and, again, there is a radiation signature.  But I'm not asking anyone to rely on me.  There are enough people with current technological expertise.  No politicians seem to have looked for such a source, and neither did the editors or reporters of any major newspaper.  That is a disgrace.      


by Number Cruncher on Tue Mar 20, 2007 at 08:42:54 PM EST

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

There is more to this point. During the run-up to the war it was pointed out by a biochemist at Cambridge that the chemical weapons that Saddam Hussein was accused of having, could not exist from a technical point of view. The accusation that Saddam had chemical weapons was based on the fact that paper work that was turned over after the Gulf War noted larger inventories of chemical weapons then had been confirmed as destroyed. It turned out that the paper work contained accounting errors that overcounted the actual inventory, but had the errant stockpiles existed in some hidden repository, they would have been chemically inert by the time of the Iraq invasion. Saddam had no way of rebuilding his capacity. It can't be done in secret.Making chemical weapons involves a large industrial infrastructure. The production process creates byproducts that are detectable in the atmosphere. The accusations made by Bush and his acolytes just could not have been true, and no one so much as raised their voice about it. Democrats supported the war out of political calculation, and they got burned.


by Robert Drake on Wed Mar 21, 2007 at 03:11:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Iraq and 2008: How Is It Playing? (none / 0)

i'm not convinced the candidates' differences in presentation on the war reflect any concrete differences in policy. both clinton and obama would withdraw combat troops but preserve an american military presence and establish permanent military bases. both candidates have adopted an aggressive posture toward iran. to my knowledge, neither is calling for a large reduction in our ridiculous military budget.

neither clinton nor obama oppose the war because it's immoral to invade another country or because the US has no right to dominate other parts of the world. quite the opposite, they oppose the war because it's weakening america's power. they are both comfortable with continued american control over the middle east and american interference in countries all over the world. it's beyond me why people are seizing on this issue since clinton and obama have equally unacceptable foreign policies.


by razetheladder on Wed Mar 21, 2007 at 02:11:56 PM EST


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