A forum at the Harvard's Kennedy School of Government got unexpectedly interesting tonight, when Hillary Clinton pollster Mark Penn lit into Barack Obama on the Iraq war, contending that, for all his talk of how he opposed the invasion in 2002, "there's not much of a difference" between the way Obama voted and the way Clinton voted, once he got into the Senate.Penn pulled out quotes from 2004 in which Obama--then a state senator--had said he was not sure how he would have voted, had he been in the U.S. Senate at the time that it authorized the invasion. In another instance, Penn cited a quotation in which Obama had told the Chicago Tribune during the 2004 Democratic National Convention that "there's not much of a difference between my position and George Bush's position at this stage."
"When they got to the Senate, Senator Obama's votes were exactly the same" as Clinton's, Penn said. "So let's not try to create false differences, when we both agree it's time to de-escalate, when we both agree it's time to end the war."
This is rather unfair from the Clinton camp, as Obama was very clear during his campaign for Senate that he was against the war. In a charitable moment when he did not want to bash Kerry who was at the time running for President, Obama said that he didn't have all the information at his disposal that Senators did and so he didn't know how he would have voted were he in the Senate at the time of the vote. That's a far cry from actually voting for the war in Iraq, as Clinton did.
As Yglesias notes, Mark Penn was advocating a centrist strategy with Al From on Iraq as late as 2005. And now he's angry to be criticized from the left. I'm told by the Clinton camp that the war doesn't make a difference in polling of primary voters, that most people don't think that Clinton should apologize for her vote and that a fair number think she did the right thing in voting for the war. Clinton's people argue that the public and the Democratic primary voting universe accept the 'I trusted Bush and he screwed me' defense. And the numbers as they stand today bear that out.
What I don't get, if the Clinton argument is true, is why people like Penn are so defensive about Iraq and Obama. Why are Clinton surrogates falsifying information about their opposition in a way meant to confuse voters to the candidates' relative positioning on the war? Maybe it's a generic paranoia about criticism, an explanation I can actually buy. Clinton believes in a rapid response style of politics where no charge goes unchallenged and everything is spin and perception. Paranoia is required for this model of politics. Or maybe Obama is rising in the polls - Rasmussen has him at only five points behind Clinton nationally, though that's almost certainly overstated.
If I had to guess, though, I think there is something valuable about having been right on Iraq in the first place. I'm not sure how to poll for it, but I can't imagine that the issue of Iraq is particularly far from the dramatic hunger for a different kind of politics.
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