Checking Bush on Iraq

by Matt Stoller, Sun Mar 11, 2007 at 11:43:46 PM EST

I've honestly been very confused about the debate over Iraq, and much of my time has also been taken up with the Fox News scuffle over the past three weeks.  Fox News was a fun fight, fun because it was so clean-cut.  The objectives were clear, and what victory meant was clear.  

Iraq is different.  It's huge.  It's the problem.  Inside the House, the situation is very fluid, and Democratic capacity to effectively communicate is poor.  The Senate has actually staked out a much better bill on Iraq than the House, requiring the withdrawal to start in four months as opposed to one year, but that doesn't really matter.  And the progressives are being pretty unstrategic and obnoxious, though that doesn't really matter either.  The Blue Dogs, as usual, suck, though that too doesn't really matter.

If you're looking at it from the inside, all you see if bleakness.  It's unlikely that we'll be able to get a bill through the House, and through a Senate filibuster, and through a White House veto, and past a constitutional crisis.  Right?  The votes aren't there.  They just aren't.  

Except, of course, that Americans hate George Bush, and Americans hate this war.  Let me repeat that for good measure - the public hates George Bush and hates the Iraq war.  In addition, Bush will accept no conditions on his management of Iraq.  Period.  And that means that any bill with any restrictions on it is as good as a bill that mandates a full withdrawal.  The point here is to get to Bush saying flat-out that he will not obey the law, and will not obey Congressional authority.  He doesn't believe he has to, and he won't consent to restrictions on his power.  And this will bring the real test.

And if the debate is drawn out, and Democrats unify, the GOP will fold.  Because, once again, the public hates George Bush, and the public hates this war.  And that means that people like Mitch McConnell will face brutal losses and low approval ratings heading into a major election year, and like all politicians, their instinct for self-preservation will take over.

The point of this Iraq debate is not to get the perfect bill, or even a good bill.  It's to get any bill that restricts Bush and helps move us closer to ending the war.  Because that will bring the public into the fight, and keep in mind, the public hates George Bush, and the public hates this war.

UPDATE: I'm not exactly sure what McJoan's point is in opposing an attempt for a compromise piece of legislation that restricts Bush's ability to wage war in Iraq. I'm one of the first people to scream that Democrats are betraying their ideals and need to be brought into line. But I don't get it this time, as I just don't get the strategic endgame that the progressive caucus has in mind.




Tags: George Bush, Iraq (all tags)

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Re: Checking Bush on Iraq (none / 0)

Matt as always has the big picture in mind. I really like this kind of strategic thinking because it sets up the whole game (if it's OK to call something this deadly serious a game) and leaves room for lots of fluid/tactical action. It is the only way to deal with the inertia of the current situation.


by anothergreenbus on Sun Mar 11, 2007 at 11:56:58 PM EST

Re: Checking Bush on Iraq (none / 0)

Capitol Hill staffers - you reading this?


by AdamGreen on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 12:00:33 AM EST

Re: Checking Bush on Iraq (none / 0)

It seems to naïve-old-me that you, Matt, would force a constitutional crisis. Is that the idea? Is that a smart plan with our present-day SCOTUS?

You clearly think they would fold without a fight. Is this really true? I'm not sure I see any reason to believe that. I mean, I get your point about avoiding another electoral meltdown, but after the congress votes on such a thing, what does it matter what the GOP in congress thinks?


by nvalvo on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 12:12:47 AM EST

Bush would have to be carried out... (none / 0)

...like the head of Montgomery Ward was for tax evasion in 1947.

But instead of FBI agents and T-men carrying the chair, it would be Republican Congresscritters, convinced that he would have to go for the good of their 2008 campaigns.

That said, I wouldn't be surprised if Bush declared  a strike on Iran to stop things from going too far against him.  (Which I think, at this point, the military would refuse to carry out.  I hope.)

The issue is whether this bunch of Democrats who are supposed to represent us are wlling to take advantage of the opening such a declaration by Bush would give them.  So far, I'm not optimistic,  given the present state of our Bill of Rights and most of the MSM, but we have to make it clear.

Because if nothing else, it won't be just Republicans with heads on the block in 2008 for refusing to deal with both a war and a Constitutional crisis.  


by palamedes on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 01:52:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Iraqi death toll and Journalists (none / 0)

How about a bill requiring an independent death toll count and making it illegal for the military to confiscate Journalists equipment like they did recently with the AP.  This administration knows what happens when Americans sees the truth for themselves like they did in Vietnam.


by medleysoul on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 12:20:11 AM EST

You are right, of course (3.00 / 0)

This wasn't the situation we had in mind, but any legal opposition to the war should suffice, given the way this administration operates. If they are going to flaunt any opposition, why haggle over the degree of opposition? The only continuing opposition to the current bill I can imagine now is a pure moral objection to supporting the war at all, even through a means to try and end it. But to do so would be to take yourself out of the debate and politicking entirely.

I don't know if you agree with me, but I think this is a step in the right direction for progressives in the House. Just being willing to make a show of force for left-wing opposition to what Democrats do is a step in the right direction. You are right that this wasn't good enough (and the Senate bill showed it clearly wasn't good enough--progs like Feingold can do better to change Democratic direction all on their own than an entire caucus can do, apparently). But it was a step in the right direction.

And, you are also right that the votes aren't there, either. Whether in the House, the Senate, or the White house, this bill is probably going down. I am mostly concerned about how hard the House leadership is willing to fight back. It is a bar fight primary moment.
by Chris Bowers on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 12:20:58 AM EST

Re: You are right, of course (3.00 / 2)

I think the bill can pass, actually.  The important test is what happens when Bush says 'no, I don't think I have to listen to Congress'.

If I were a prog caucus member, I would cut a deal with leadership and say 'I'll support your stupid compromise if you support our strong enforcement of that compromise when Bush gives Congress the middle finger'.


by Matt Stoller on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 12:23:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are right, of course (3.00 / 0)

So would I.
by Chris Bowers on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 12:38:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

As for the strategic endgame (3.00 / 3)

But I don't get it this time, as I just don't get the strategic endgame that the progressive caucus has in mind.

I wonder what you think of Big Tent Democrat's proposal, then?


Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!
by brainwave on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 12:42:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: You are right, of course (none / 0)

Dang, that's sharp. That's a great way to force even the Blue Dogs to have to back up the progressives if the Constitutional Crisis makes the big time. If the bill passes and gets vetoed, basically everybody has to line up for or against Bush, and even the moderate Dems are going to be against. Since Bush has indicated he'll veto basically anything it almost doesn't matter what's in the first bill.


by curtadams on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 03:34:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Matt (none / 0)

thanks for this post. It really crystalized how I felt about this bill. And to be frank, I too was confused by some of the outrage about the House Bill. Kagro X had a front page story over at DKos that ripped the Democrats for the benchmarks, on ground that Bush would simply ignore them. His story made almost no mention of the fact that, benchmarks aside, House Democrats had just proposed two bills, both of them binding legislation, mandating withdrawal from Iraq.

Although the House leadership bill clearly isn't as good as the Senate bill, it seems to me that this may be because, with no filibuster in the House, Pelosi and the rest of the leadership tried to come up with something that acutally had a good chance of passing. I don't know, maybe this wasn't the best strategy. But I can't see how this bill, which is binding legislation that includes a deadline for withdrawal from Iraq, is anything but good.

If this bill, or something including a deadline for withdrawal, passes the House, it seems to me that those who voted in favor of the deadline will be more likely to go for the "fully funded withdrawal" when Bush acts like he is going to ignore the deadline.


by taylormattd on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 05:44:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Want to end the war, impeach bush! (none / 0)

Frankly, I'm not that worried about it at this point. It will be over in two years bar nothing. Yes, a few more Americans will die, and that's unfortunate (I'm not convinced the Iraqis will be better off with us there or not).  It's not the end of the world.

On the other hand, any law that gets put through congress is going to be ignored by Bush anyway. So why bother? It will just be a huge pain in the ass to try to force him to adhere to it. I'd rather see the democrats spend their time on useful domestic policies and holding the president accountable for other easier targets, like the prosecutor purge (I've been really happen with their progress on hearings and oversight)

But really, the best way to get rid of the president would be to impeach him. It didn't hurt the democratic party any when they tried to impeach Nixon, in fact I believe they did a lot better in the next cycle. When Clinton was impeached, it was in the 60% range.

Impeach Bush and Cheney, if public support can be built for such a move (seems likely) and the war will end.  It's the only realistic way to end the Iraq war. And I'm sure there is plenty of grounds.  This would make Nancy Peloci the president.


by delmoi on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 12:31:34 AM EST

Re: Want to end the war, impeach bush! (3.00 / 1)

A constitutional crisis is probably the only way to get the Republican support to impeach them.  The Republicans don't exactly want a President Pelosi, no matter how much they think Bush is dragging them down.

Forcing the issue is a total win-win

1)if the dems fail to earn a majority vote in both houses, the turncoat blue dog idiots are brought out into the forefront, and can then be pressured and primaried

2) If Bush vetoes the bill and the dems fail to overturn it, then repeat 1), with an added does of making Bush look like a jackass who will be a yoke worn across the neck of every close republican incumbent in 2008

3) If Bush incites a constitutional crisis, and the courts uphold him, it will be the end of the 'liberal courts' meme--any smart Democrat will start yelling this mess from the mountaintops.  And Bush will still be the president that forced the war to go to the courts, and will still be a massive weight to be carried on the back of every republican incumbent

4) If Bush incites a constitutional crisis, the courts overturn him, and he ignores the courts, then he has committed the most impeachable offense since the days of Andrew Jackson.  No republican will be able to support him.  There may even be the votes for a conviction in the Senate.  At the minimum, I don't see how the Maine senators and Specter will be able to not vote for his conviction.  

5)Or, at some point, Bush caves, and the war ends.

It doesn't really matter--every scenario has the Democrats winning.  Bush's stubborn frat boy attitude will be his noose.


"You say the world has lost it's love I say embrace what it's made of" -Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 02:21:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Impractical (none / 0)

If we want to end the war, we have to convince the House Democrats to cut off funding.


by andgarden on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 02:31:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Impractical (none / 0)

Any attempt to do something like that will have to be tied to something calling for a withdrawal--funding cuts will have to fund the withdrawal, and this fact will have to be quite clear, or else the dems will be leaving themselves open to accusations of leaving the troops behind without funding.


"You say the world has lost it's love I say embrace what it's made of" -Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 02:57:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Checking Bush on Iraq (none / 0)

I say--people shd lobby their congressman.  Each district of congressmen who dont follow the will
of the people on Iraq--shd be lobbied by their constituents--phone calls, e-mails, etc.

It is not the Congress fault alone if the bill doesnt pass through--it is also the fault of the people by not getting involve.


by jasmine on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 01:09:25 AM EST

Re: Checking Bush on Iraq (none / 0)

Very Simple Get the Bill on Bush's Desk and SAY "MR PRESIDENT" YOU have two choices you can either sign the Bill and get out by 2008 or not sign it and Get out now and you will be cutting off the funds to the troops." It's your choice, but we won't be cutting off the money "YOU WILL"


by orin76 on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 01:27:17 AM EST

Re: Checking Bush on Iraq (3.00 / 1)

Beyond this if the republicans try to filbuster it in the Senate accuse them of cutting off the funding for the troops


by orin76 on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 01:42:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

If you are correct, Matt... (none / 0)

...then our role regarding this is clear.

We need to find a couple of someones high up enough in the MSM chain (maybe even someone in the South American media, if Bush is still there), to ask Bush, point blank, the following:

"If the Congress passes a bill restricting your authority regarding the conduct of the war in Iraq, will you obey it?"

And we keep hammering him with that question.  We bug whoever we have to bug until Bush has to respond to the question.  

And then we have our opening.


by palamedes on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 01:35:48 AM EST

Condi's already answered the question (none / 0)

and the answer is no.  Your question is a little more expansive, but I doubt anyone in the bush administration is too concerned with parsing words.


"You say the world has lost it's love I say embrace what it's made of" -Dar Williams
by Valatan on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 02:23:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Fine. (Part 2...) (none / 0)

Then we hammer our Congresscritters and every MSM person that will listen that the Bush administration refuses to listen to the will of the public through the Congress.  To state flatly, if necessary, that he has become a dictator.  

And you hammer that day after day after day.


by palamedes on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 01:26:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Checking Bush on Iraq (none / 0)

It boils down to that fucking vote in 2002!  The vote that the DLC Democrats and Blue Dogs voted for...

And now they somehow have to vote their way out of it... or bring about a Constitutional Crisis - which they own...  Remembering Lieberman and the other DLC'ers allowed the federalist Roberts and Alito on the Supreme Court!

If nothing else, it should be exposed that the people that voted for this war have no shame, no judgement and and definitely no rights to the White House...

"...During the second session of the 107th Congress, the Congress passed H.J.Res.
114, the Authorization for the Use of Force against Iraq Resolution of 2002 (P.L. 107-243 ). On October 16, 2002, President Bush signed this legislation into law. This statute authorizes the President to use the armed forces of the United States as he determines to be necessary and appropriate in order to (1) defend the
national security of the United States against the continuing threat posed by Iraq;
and (2) enforce all relevant United Nations Security Council resolutions
regarding Iraq.

Prior to using force under this statute the President is required to communicate to Congress his determination that the use of diplomatic and other peaceful means will
not "adequately protect the United States ... or ... lead to enforcement of all relevant
United Nations Security Council resolutions" and that the use of force is "consistent"
with the battle against terrorism. The statute also stipulates that it is "intended to
constitute specific statutory authorization within the meaning of section 5(b) of the
War Powers Resolution."

(snip)

On March 19, 2003, President Bush used the authority granted in P.L. 107-243 by launching a military attack against Iraq. The President continues to use that authority for ongoing military operations in Iraq."

CRS Report for Congress
War Powers Resolution: Presidential Compliance
Updated January 16, 2007
Richard F. Grimmett, Specialist in National Defense Foreign Affairs, Defense, and Trade

Democrats helped break it, now they own it.


by SandThroughTheEyeGlass on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 02:21:20 AM EST

Re: Checking Bush on Iraq (none / 0)

I have serious concerns that any attempt to "restrict" Bush's ability to wage war in Iraq would amount to an unconstitutional usurpation of his authority as commander and chief. Unfortunately, it is clear that Congress can not direct the forces it has created nor may it attempt to manage a war through legislation.

Rather than proceeding down this path and into constitutional uncertainty, the best course of action would be to specific rescind the authorization for the use and force and, in the same bill, declare that the President lacks the constitutional authority to continue military operations in Iraq, and requiring him to withdrawal troops immediately, taking such steps necessary to protect our armed forces as they withdrawal. Such a move would be the most significant assertation of congressional power over the war power since Vietnam.

Matt does make a good point, supposing we pass such a bill, and Bush ignores it, in clear violation of constitutional principals. The only rememdy for such a clear constitutional violation would be impeachment, and we don't have the votes, but that doesn't mean Congress should stand on the sidelines.


by bjschmid on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 09:24:57 AM EST

Bush can quite Constitutionally veto such a bill (3.00 / 1)

And that's where it falls down.

If the objective is to get GOP Congresscritters on record on a bill to limit the war, any old bill will do - in a way, the more compromisey, the better, since if the GOP opposes with all their might even the most milquetoasty bill possible, it'll get them on record as being as extreme as possible.

So in that instance, we don't need nearly as strong a bill as this.

But if the objective is to actually bring the war to an end, then this bill has no hope of accomplishing that goal.  Even if we can get it through the Senate (unlikely, since we'd need 60 votes for cloture), Bush can veto it, and that's the end of the road.

But de-funding the war doesn't take 60 votes - because unless a funding bill is passed, there is no money for the war.  

If Congress failed to pass any funding bill at all, we'd be out of the war - rather abruptly, too.  So Bush and the GOP need something to pass Congress.

All the Dem majority has to do is decide what that 'something' will be, and be unwilling to budge on it, to control the game.  They can say, in effect, 'my way or the highway' if it's a funding bill.

And then Bush would be forced to sign it, and undoubtedly issue a signing statement saying he was going to ignore the funding restrictions.


by RT on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 11:30:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Thoughts (none / 0)

There's a lot here that's food for thought, and I'm ruminating.

When Matt says

It's unlikely that we'll be able to get a bill through the House, and through a Senate filibuster, and through a White House veto, and past a constitutional crisis.  Right?  The votes aren't there.  They just aren't.  

he's singing my song, so naturally I'm loving it.

Where he start to go wayward - but, remember, I'm still ruminating! - is here:

Bush will accept no conditions on his management of Iraq.  Period.  And that means that any bill with any restrictions on it is as good as a bill that mandates a full withdrawal.

On its own, that's fine. Except it leads to this:
The point here is to get to Bush saying flat-out that he will not obey the law, and will not obey Congressional authority.

The point is this: Bush will not allow any bill with restrictions to pass into law; so there will never be any such bill for him to disobey.

But - can't stop ruminating! - Matt is absolutely right that this is a political contest.

If - big if - the Dems could show that a majority of both houses of the Congress wanted a timetable for withdrawal, even if they'd not managed to pass a bill to that effect, that would be a lever to work with.

It would not be as big a lever as a stymied supplemental bill.

But - recent experience has taught us that a stymied supplemental bill is in Cloud Cuckoo Land. (Where our friend Big Tent Democrat lives, apparently.)

And - as Rummy almost said, we try to stop the war with the Democratic party we have...


by skeptic06 on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 12:33:00 PM EST

Re: Checking Bush on Iraq (none / 0)

I can't even bring myself to read this post. More blather about Iraq, when the truth is, the DEMOCRATS NOW OWN THIS WAR because they're not stopping it. I won't read any more bullshit strategizing. BULLSHIT, people! Bullshit, bullshit, bullshit. The Democrats are toast. I have no plans to vote any more, period. IT MAKES NO DIFFERENCE.

Sign me 61 years old and finished with this crap.


by John from Taos on Mon Mar 12, 2007 at 02:16:50 PM EST

Explain, please (none / 0)

Please explain how they're going to do it, since you are so wise.

They've only been sworn in for two months.  Did you want them to go flying over to Iraq to personally throw the troops onto the transport planes?


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[ Parent ]

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