Any favorability number below 50 is a big warning sign for incumbents. 45 is pretty low, and its not as soft as a 45 in TX or OK where its still very difficult to pick off unpopular GOP senators like Conryn or Inhofe. NH is definitely in play.

Oh yeah, lets not forget that while many GOP senators up for re-election in '08 have caved to political pressure on Iraq (Smith, Coleman, Warner etc.), Sununu has steadfastly stood by Bush and the surge. Make that A BIG OLD TARGET on his back.

was left pretty much in shambles by the election in Nov.  Having to pay the NH Dems $135k for phone jamming during the race that Sununu won in 2002 didn't help.  He beat up poor old Bob Smith in the primary in 1996.  He's a real daddy's boy, as is Gregg, that is really their only claim to fame, their fathers who were governors.

They are really floundering, and Sununu doesn't, in my opinion, have what it takes to run a really competitive race.  By the way, I live in NH and am involved in Democratic politics, including that amazing race my Congresswoman Carol Shea Porter won.  That was a trip!

I read that Jeanne Shaheen (former governor, no?) had the best shot at Sunnu's seat, but passed. Anybody know why?

We have been tracking Sprintin' Sununu on Blue Hampshire since our inception in mid-November 2006.  I encourage readers who want to know why our junior senator Johnny is poised for defeat to check out our ever growing open source oppo-research Sununu tag, which will corroborate what I will state below and much much more.

Here's why we have an outstanding chance at picking up this seat in 2008:

He has been given many chances in the 110th to swing to the center to protect himself against losing in our newly blue state, and he has failed them all.  To wit:

* Soon after the '06 elections, he told a crowd of small business leaders "stop complaining about health care." and that there is "no solution anytime soon" for business struggling with health care costs.  That will play very nicely when we contrast that with the cozy relationship he has with the insurance industry.

* Sununu, quite unbelievably in a state where environmental concerns cross party lines, refuses to admit that human activity is behind climate change.  This insanity, which he shares with Dick Cheney, is enough all by itself to hand him a defeat.

* Iraq: Sununu pretends to be against troop escalation, but time and again he voted otherwise.  He voted against the Biden resolution on the Foreign Relation Committee, and he twice voted against cloture on the Warner one.  Polls in NH clearly state that we want out of Iraq.  to make matters worse, Johnny was caught running away from reporters so he wouldn't have to make another slimy half-statement before voting to kill debate.

* McCain: A story that almost no one has picked up on is Sununu's close relationship to McCain.  I believe that Sununu is sticking his neck out on Iraq because of McCain, who has perhaps offered him the possibility of a Veep slot if nominated.  McCain, on the other hand, desperately needs a friend for the NH primary (notice how Pander Bear has a similar relationship with SC senator Lindsay Graham.

And then there's the current state climate.  Dems in control of both congressional seats, the State House, Senate , Executive Council, and Governor's office.

Add to that the fact that the NHGOP is flat broke, and part of the money they bring in goes straight to the NHDP because of the phone jamming settlement.

Oh yeah, did I mention phonejamming?  For sure that will be brought up to remind voters that Johnny's first go around was only semi-legitimate.

Now, onto the candidates. Two are declared, Steve Marchand, mayor of Portsmouth. He's young, he's popular, and he's from working class roots.

He can beat Sununu.

Katrina Swett has also filed.  Not so sure about her at the moment, considering her earlier loss to Bass despite out-funding him.

Lynch is not interested, Shaheen likewise.

Stonyfield Farm "CE-Yo" Gary Hirshberg will make a decision by March 5th.  Sununu can say that he's pro-business.  Hirshberg is business, and he became enormously sucessful without sacrificing the environment.  There is no bigger player in organic foods, period.  He is a creative personality who understands blogs (he was one of the first to have a company blog for his yogurt), and he can self-fund.

And he's passionate.  Check out this press release after Sununu voted against cloture:

"Pure and pathetic political posturing" is how New Hampshire businessman Gary Hirshberg describes New Hampshire Senators Sununu's and Gregg's blockage of yesterday's attempted nonbinding Iraq resolution.

"New Hampshire citizens should be outraged that our two senators cannot do the one job that they have been elected to perform, namely to take a position," says Hirshberg, President and CEO of Stonyfield Farm, Inc.

..."Every time I start to get comfortable with the idea that I should not run, Senator Sununu does something else that makes my blood boil," says Hirshberg.

"From his cowardly declaration that there is zero chance of enacting health care reform -- and surely there is no chance as long as we have that type of surrender mentality in our Senate -- to his continued lack of leadership on climate change and renewable energy reform -- even after an overwhelming consensus of  the world's scientists have, for the nth time declared this to be a certainty --  to ducking his responsibility to the voters of NH and our country to tell us where he stands on the war, surely it is time for Senator Sununu to return to the real world and make way for capable and effective leadership."

This is going to be one exciting race.

Not really....

2006 was supposed to where the Republicans were run out of the Northeast and it didn't quite materialize. Until you chance the tax structure in NH, (I'm deadly serious)...you will always have a good base for the GOP because it sits right outside Boston's economic engine yet is a much cheaper place to live and do business.

Nevada's relationship to California is sort of the same. Ditto Indiana to Illinois.

I can't add much to Dean Barker's comment, but based on the several recent years I spent in NH, a couple more observations:

Craig Benson, the previous Republican governor, was not only a lousy governor, but a real tool on a personal level.  He didn't do his party's brand any favors.

Re: Risenmessiah's (?!) comment above, there is some truth there, in that there is a steady flow of financially successful Massholes moving over the border to escape taxes.  But this would only be relevant at the statehouse level, and even with a house full of democrats, I don't see an income tax OR sales tax coming to NH any time soon; and the property taxes were already high enough when Lynch came in for there to be some pressure on for "relief."  And those Massholes are both educated, and still liberal by national standards.

Bitch if you will about the NH primary, but there IS a culture of political participation there, and as a population, NH voters tend to pay more attention. And over the last 6 years, paying attention is the critical ingredient for red-to-blue switches.  (I would know)

Finally, I don't think NH was ever super-Republican in the particular flavor of the contemporary Republican party; rather, it was an especially entrenched example of the old, yankee-style liberal republicanism.  There's not much left of that anymore, so there's not much left for New Hampshirites but the Dems.

Judd Gregg's probably pretty secure, but I agree that Sununu is vulnerable.  He always comes across rather obviously as a Bush puppet, and NH voters are not in the mood.

New Hampshire is perhaps the most libertarian state in the USA (certainly in the top 5), so it's not surprising that it has drifted away from the Republican Party as the Republican Party has drifted away from any semblance of respect for libertarian ideas like peace, smaller government, fiscal discipline, constitutional government, due process, habeus corpus, etc.