MyDD :: MyDD presidential poll

MyDD presidential poll

by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 11:21:18 AM EST

This poll isn't scientific, many of you might not have seen the entry it was posted on last week, but with over 1000 votes, it's got a good enough number to blog some reflections.

Barack Obama has a pretty strong lead and John Edwards is a close second, but what makes the contest for supporters up in the air is that the largest group, 35 percent, is still supporting candidates that are not in the race (Gore, Clark). Richardson is getting stronger, now breaking into double-digits.

Hillary Clinton is in trouble. I understand the hold the line strategy that they are embarked upon, but if this is what the base of political junkies is thinking, that makes their path tougher. Of course, MyDD and the blogs are not the end all, and they have put together the best national organization.

And howabout your Republican preferences-- about half of the votes go to unelectable candidates we'd most like to see be the GOP nominee. But Hagel as a top vote getting is interesting. He recently speculated that he would accept a nomination to the "Unity Ticket" that is proposed. He'd have to team up with a Democrat to run, and I don't know of any that would. If I were to imagine a ticket that would make it interesting, I'd speculate a Hagel/Webb one.

Tags: Barack Obama, John Edwards, Hillary Clinton, Bill Richardson, Al Gore, Wes Cark (all tags)

Permalink :: 48 Comments :: Post a Comment

think you're wrong (3.00 / 1)

while there are many many flaws with Hillary's campaign.

so far the netroots doesn't translate into the real world.

no "anti-hillary" vote has ever been seen outside the blogosphere.

but yeah - obama and edwards will be the front runners in blogland

McCain - a serial Opportunist, from marriage to policy positions

by TarHeel on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 11:36:24 AM EST

A suggestion to Jerome: (none / 0)

(posting up here for visibility.)

Jerome, I never saw this poll when you posted it. What would be great is a pair of week long polls, visibly posted from say midnight tonight till midnight next sunday.

One poll with only the declared candidates, and another with them and Gore/Clark included.

If possible, the polls should have one-vote-per-IP restriction so that people cannot vote multiple times. This restriction should be there whether the poll is open to anonymous readers (i.e. either unregistered or non logged in) or not.

That way, we can measure a more steady state support for various candidates. Time local factors (such as Gore's partly misreported statements about 2008, and the Obama-HRC exchange etc) do affect such polls, but over a week, we'd get a more even sample.

Thanks!

by NuevoLiberal on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 03:23:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

this poll required (3.00 / 1)

modifying your browsers to accept cookies and such,,, stuff I'd never have to do with dKos.

so for instance I didn't vote.. that would be another flaw with this poll

McCain - a serial Opportunist, from marriage to policy positions

by TarHeel on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 03:37:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I have no ideao what (none / 0)

you're talking about, because I hadn't seen this poll. Daily Kos did seem to have IP protection in its recent polls in the sense that for non-logged in users, every IP gets one vote.

by NuevoLiberal on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 04:45:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: think you're wrong (none / 0)

Webb wouldn't be in the Senate without the help of the netroots, both in fundraising and keeping the macaca story alive long enough for it to hit the MSM.

by Nick Stump on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 04:55:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

Hillar has never done well here...here it's cool to not like her. I'm mostly disturbed by the weird support for tancredo. I hope it's a plan to get reps to run a crazy fascist.

by PHDinNYC4Kerry on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 11:39:57 AM EST

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

yeah i think the hagel vote is understandable (anti-war) and the tancredo vote is too (to make them nominate someone crazy) but i think the guliani 3rd place vote is most telling. it makes him the most popular of the viable GOPers and I'd speculate that's the one dems are most comfortable with if they really really have to and that could translate into trouble if he's the nominee.

www.adamconner7.com

by Adam Conner on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 11:48:53 AM EST

This is that Pajamas Media poll, right? (none / 0)

I voted in it--online polls are like crack, you know--but I didn't care for it.

For example, the poll is wacky on the Dem side, including unannounced candidates Gore and Clark, but not announced candidates Kucinich and Gravel? Sure they included Gingrich and Pataki on the Republican side, but they at least included their own also-rans like Jim Gilmore and Ron Paul (who seems to score surprisingly well with their on-line crowd).

I guess there's a benefit in that you can compare MyDD's results to the blogosphere-wide results, but given that probably 95% of those blogosphere-wide votes came from Republicans/Conservatarians, those comparisons won't be particularly useful (Bill Richardson is leading the Dem field for the current week--no way that comes from the liberal netroots, even if he is currently my first choice). And it will give you week-to-week numbers, unlike some straw polls I could name.

But in all, I much prefer Chris's polling, stuffable as it may be.

by folkbum on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 11:49:30 AM EST

Re: This is that Pajamas Media poll, right? (none / 0)

I voted too. Didn't notice at first but looking back on past unrecorded weeks for this site there were all the other candidates listed, including Pace.

by Shaun Appleby on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 04:28:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

Al Gore jumps to the top if he announces after winning an Oscar- guranteed.

by DocD on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 11:55:59 AM EST

Unity - Lieberman? (none / 0)

If Lieberman jumps ship to the Republicans, would that disqualify him as a Unity 08 candidate? This idea of Lieberman leaving the Democratic Party is getting better and better every day.

Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.

by Fran for Dean on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 12:02:30 PM EST

Re: Unity - Lieberman? (none / 0)

Woops, I meant would that disqualify him from Unity 08 if the other person on the ticket were a Republican?

Rudy Giuliani hates firefighters. And puppies.

by Fran for Dean on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 12:03:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

I would have liked to have seen the results without Gore and Clark. Considering they got 3rd and 4th place it could have given entirely different results. On a related note, who are the 10 people voting for Biden?

by blueryan on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 12:13:49 PM EST

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

Does Biden have that many staff?

by johnalive on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 12:39:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

I think I've run into two people on this site, like Transplanted Texan, who support Biden.

"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR

by jallen on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 04:58:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Charlie Cook has her up 22 (none / 0)

His poll was released on Thursday I think. Leadning by 22% is the typeof trouble most candidates will take.

by dpANDREWS on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 12:52:23 PM EST

Re: Charlie Cook has her up 22 (none / 0)

Yes, but that was a national poll, wasn't it? National polls at this stage are meaningless. I guarantee most of Hillary's national support will evaporate instantaneously if she fails to win in Iowa--and someone else is on the front page of every single newspaper in the United States the day after Iowa's caucus.

by Will Graham on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 01:02:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Charlie Cook has her up 22 (none / 0)

Not so sure about that. She can do okay if she wins 2nd in Iowa. Most expect Edwards to win Iowa and he will have a very hard time if he doesnt. Hillary has the money and organization to not worry about Iowa so much.

The bigger test for Hillary is New Hampshire where she seems to have stronger support.

by okamichan13 on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 01:13:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Charlie Cook has her up 22 (none / 0)

Should Hillary take 3rd in Iowa she could still keep going but if she then doesn't go on to win NH she will be in big trouble especially if Obama or Edwards wins both.

by msstaley on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 01:39:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bill didn't compete in Iowa ... (none / 0)

.. and finished second in New Hampshire (granted Harkin was campaigning in Iowa).

You are spot on, Hillary can go deeper into the process than most. She will have the money and the organization to grind it out if she has to.

by dpANDREWS on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 03:20:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Bill didn't compete in Iowa ... (none / 0)

But Bill Clinton was selling himself as the comeback kid, not as the runaway frontrunner. Hillary's in a much stronger position, but if it goes wrong it'll be much harder to recover from.

Visit Forgotten Countries, my new foreign policy-based blog

by Englishlefty on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 03:26:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

You mean you HOPE (none / 0)

by dpANDREWS on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 03:13:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (3.00 / 1)

I don't think either Gore or Clark is running. If Gore is, we should know soon especially if his film wins. He will want to take advantage of the free publicity and if he is going to announce it will be soon. Even though he's said about a million times he's not running.

I don't think Clark will run. He just doesn't have the support he did before and this time the field is a lot more crowded.

by okamichan13 on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 01:16:03 PM EST

Convenient Truth (none / 0)

Inconvenient Truth is acting as a proxy campaign finance system with the benefit of not having any campaign reporting issues.

Gore would be nuts to launch a campaign prior to the votes being in for the Nobel. If he gets that, (and given that apart from the merits of the film and the global warming campaign itself, you know that the world at large is dying to shove a sharp stick in Bush's eye) and then announces, well a lot of candidates will be left in the dust wondering what hit them.

You wonder whether Gore and Clark ever talk privately.

by Bruce Webb on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 03:49:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (2.50 / 2)

I truly feel sorry for many in the blogosphere. I sincerely believe that not only will Senator Clinton emerge as the Democratic nominee, but she is very likely to take the White House in 2008.

The world to which the "purist" bloggers belong is not one the majority of Americans can recognize, or ever will. HRC has been maintaining a huge lead, is the ultimate of political survivors, and has the most popular political figure in the world today at her side.

Goodness, she is in trouble among the purist bloggers! My, my! And the greener-than-green Senator Obama and lightweight former Senator Edwards are besting her here. My, my! And David Geffen, in a hissy-fit over Bill Clinton's failure to pardon one of Geffen's good friends, disparages Hillary. Well, there must be "trouble in River City!"

I hope that you will remain contented living in your fantasies.

However, you might want to ask at sometime in the future why one of your most vaulted of candidates, former Vice-president (and likely the actually elected 43rd President) Al Gore chose Joseph Lieberman to succeed him to the presidency. One wonders how all of us true progressives would have dealt with Mr. Lieberman's bizarre predilections had he assumed the Vice-presidency.

Remember, dear "purist bloggers," Bill Clinton chose Al Gore to succeed him, and work alongside of him, whereas Al Gore chose Joseph Lieberman as both his would-be successor and confidante. And Bill Clinton chose now Governor Bill Richardson, and Bill Clinton chose--oh, but beg your pardon, the Clintons are your enemies, are they not?

Incidentally, in the world of the "purists," it was Ralph Nader who was the savior of the Republic in 2000. That "savior" has indicated he will only run again if HRC is the 2008 Democratic Candidate. By that time, it will possibly take more than a third party candidate, statewide shenanigans, the Fourth Estate and the Supreme Court to prevent HRC from being the first woman President.

But dream away, "purist bloggers." Fantasies may soon be all that you have left.

by lambros on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 01:38:25 PM EST

Purist Blogger (none / 0)

What the heck is a 'purist blogger'???? Is it someone who doesn't support Hillary? Interestingly enough the whole selection process of political parties is as you put it, not a world the majority of Americans can recognize since only a tiny percentage of Americans participate. The reason the blogosphere matters is because any group of persons who participate in the political process wield a disproportionate amount of influence on that process compared to those who don't participate. That is precisely why political parties exist, to increase the chances that an individual whose beliefs most coincide with the group will be elected. Right now there is no good way to determine how much influence the world of MyDD and DailyKos and other Democratic blogs has on the election process, only that there is a noticeable effect. The 2008 election will be a good test to see just how much influence the blogosphere has on the nomination process. With the frontrunner for the nomination (Hillary, of course) being at the bottom it creates an opportunity that we may not see in future contests.

by msstaley on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 01:51:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

Whenever I hear a Hillary supporter doing the One people, One party, One leader schtik it gives me the shivers. Why does she have that effect on you? It doesn't seem normal somehow.

by Shaun Appleby on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 04:45:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

I think its our version of the same authoritarianism and cult of personality that the right has copious amounts of- the Stalinists.

"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR

by jallen on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 05:02:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

Well maybe that would explain the centrally-planned primary we seem to be having. I guess that would mean Obama supporters are like Trotskyites?

by Shaun Appleby on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 05:24:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (3.00 / 1)

Oh come on... an online poll of a few hundred folks signifies a movement in the netroots? Come on.

The headline should be "315 of the 1,000 people who happened to be on MYDD and care enough to vote supported X candidate."

I know that the article never claims this is a poll, but it hints at it... arguing that the size of the respondent pool is significant enough to give it an analysis.

If we saw an online poll on Wall Street Journal telling us that only 50% of people disapproved of Bush's handling of the war, we would all know that it isn't legit.

Why? Not only does the poll just reach out to people who happened to be on that site, but it only elicits opinion from those who care enough to give their opinion in a poll.

Let's make sure that we're being critical of our own analysis here.

by wanderingpolitico on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 01:50:54 PM EST

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

Left something out...

Let's remember that "political junkies" and "those who would vote in an online MYDD poll" are hardly the same group.

This isn't a poll of political junkies, it's a poll that shows the results of who read MYDD during the course of this poll and cared enough to respond.

by wanderingpolitico on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 01:52:50 PM EST

I agree (3.00 / 0)

The way MyDD is run, the bloggers and audience here represent a renewed classical Left (progressive, populist-ic) faction. Which is good in a lot of ways, of course, and isn't wrong per se, but it's not representative of Democratic activists.

The concerns on this website reflect that- a focus on economic inequality and a ruthless anti-Right approach to all things political power. And disinterest in social rights/social justice matters, which is tedious and incrementalist and messy and has a disempowerment dynamic (when you win, you're expended).

We have Jerome going to work for Mark Warner, and basically a running bias in favor of Gore, Edwards, Obama, and Richardson.

Liberals- people who see social rights changes as fundamental and necessarily preceding non-transient changes in economic rights- are simply grossly underrepresented here. And that's ~60% of the Democratic primary electorate, splitting between HRC and BO but more convinced that HRC will deliver in office.

These people are majorities in the primaries in Blue states, perhaps plurality in the Purple ones. And these are the people who aren't persuaded by Edwards, or Gore, or Richardson, or Clarke at the moment. Not that the war and economic issues and bad ethics aren't important, it's their view that these are secondary or corollary manifestations of more fundamental social rot. The rot being social dysfunction which emanates at bottom from tolerated social inequalities/injustices, undue privileges, and desires to live in the past/refight past wars.

by killjoy on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 03:23:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I disagree (none / 0)

You must be ignorant to label us as the "classical Left".
I think we have no "disinterest in social rights/social justice matters".
Provide proof for liberals (as defined by you) being "~60% of the Democratic primary electorate".

"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR

by jallen on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 05:12:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (3.00 / 1)

I pointed this out in the poll thread, but I was able to vote for Edwards twice after refreshing the page. When I voted, Richardson had a tremendous lead in the overall balloting. This was a very stuffable ballot.

The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK

by Vox Populi on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 02:36:55 PM EST

Re: MyDD presidential poll (3.00 / 1)

I voted just once since that's what Chris told us to do, but there was a time when Dodd and Kucinich (not sure, Dodd and someone) were blowing everyone away -- someone could sit there for an hour and hit refresh and throw the entire thing off. And Chris just dumped them from teh poll, then a few hours later he gave up. My guess is that the diarist like Obama and has blwon this out of proportion.

For a far more realistic take on the state of the netroots:

DKos Straw Poll, 6 February

Edwards 26% 6654 votes
Obama 25% 6435 votes
Clark 14% 3657 votes
Other 8% 2059 votes
Richardson 6% 1683 votes
No Freakin' Clue 6% 1543 votes
Kucinich 4% 1172 votes
Clinton 4% 1071 votes
Vilsack 1% 314 votes
Biden 0% 175 votes
Gravel 0% 119 votes
Dodd 0% 115 votes

Edwards has won all three DailyKos strawpolls from December 2006 until today.

DKos Obama or Edwards Only Poll, 6 February

Edwards 51%
Obama 42%
I'd Stay Home: 5%

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2007/2 /6/18514/61053

Michigan For Edwards and Labor-Netroots for Edwards

by philgoblue on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 03:37:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

Vox, I tried voting twice after seeing your comment but it wouldn't let me. If it is cookie-based you could have voted on two different computers, for example. I thought the poll widget was very cool. Did you happen to look at the overall results too?

by Shaun Appleby on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 04:54:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

Hey Shaun, I used the same computer to cast multiple votes. I did have to refresh the browser before doing this.

When I checked the overall results, Richardson was winning big.

The sharpest criticism often goes hand in hand with the deepest idealism and love of country. ~RFK

by Vox Populi on Mon Feb 26, 2007 at 08:37:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

I'll try that if we get to vote this week. Richardson won overall on the aggregate vote for last week too across all sites, Gore came in third. I lost the URL for the widget for our myDD precinct.

by Shaun Appleby on Mon Feb 26, 2007 at 02:49:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

I'll have the Gore-Obama ticket please, thank you.

by global yokel on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 03:05:21 PM EST

Pullleeezzz (3.00 / 1)

Chris himself totaly threw in the towel on this poll and proclaimed it meaningless. It was corrupted from the start. Y'all need a poll that can't be freeped. Until then, this is an exercise in masterbation.

Michigan For Edwards and Labor-Netroots for Edwards

by philgoblue on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 03:32:41 PM EST

Didn't you just 'masterbate' above, then? :) (none / 0)

i.e. here?

by NuevoLiberal on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 04:43:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Webb/Hagel (none / 0)

I'd vote that ticket in a minute if Webb was at the top.

by Nick Stump on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 04:53:08 PM EST

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

I thought it was heaps of fun and I hope we will be able to get to the widget in future as it permits a vote weekly. I saved the URL for the myDD instance of the poll but I wonder if it will be available in coming weeks on the site? Anyone?

by Shaun Appleby on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 04:56:23 PM EST

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

I think its significant that this was the first poll of MyDD in which I witnessed Obama beating Edwards. Can't wait for the next MyDD poll.

"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR

by jallen on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 05:15:04 PM EST

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

I voted for Obama and Hagel. Hagel because he's turned anti-war, and because he's an actual authentic conservative...not a trick pony like McCain, or plain out phonies like Rudy and Mitt.

by rikyrah on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 05:42:25 PM EST

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

I voted Edwards/Romney, because I would love to have them square off.

"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR

by jallen on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 06:11:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

After meeting with Dennis and Elizabeth Kucinich on Saturday, Feb. 17th - I think it's important to share an interview that CTBob conducted with Dennis and Elizabeth. It is posted on :

www.CTBob.blogspot.com

Both Dennis and Elizabeth made a strong positive impression on the bloggers, the general public and even the MSM who listened to and spoke with them. They received front page coverage in the Norwalk Hour, Stamford Advocate, Westport News and Westport Now.

When the "media contrived" term "electability" is removed from the equation, I ask each and every reader of MyDD to remember that at this juncture in 1967 ( during the Viet Nam debacle ), Robert Kennedy was in the same position that Dennis and Elizabeth face today - the strongest anti-war, pro-peace candidate - yet nowhere in terms of public recognition. Please give these two brilliant individuals a chance to earn your respect and some of your valuable volunteer time.

View Dennis Kucinich's positions on all the issues - particularly on Iraq and National Health Care - at www.Kucinich.org

I am a Dean Democrat.

by David A Stevenson on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 06:58:48 PM EST

Re: MyDD presidential poll (none / 0)

I wonder how much personal lives are ultimately going to matter to Republican voters.
Giuliani had a messy divorce. So did McCain.
But Mitt Romney has been married to the same five wives for 35 years.

by ira500 on Sun Feb 25, 2007 at 10:07:00 PM EST

You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.