I talk to active Iowa Democrats every day, literally. The number of undecideds is way above 15 percent. I would not be surprised it if were more like 50 percent.

As a precinct captain for Kerry, I identified relatively few hard supporters for any candidate in my neighborhood as late as October 2003. A lot of people want to see the candidates several times before making up their minds, and many wait until the last few weeks.

That said, I do sense that Edwards is leading among those who have decided. I never believed those ARG polls showing HRC ahead.

I would like to see polling firms ask Iowans about their second choices. My sense is that HRC is not a second choice for anyone. If she's not your first choice, she's probably your last choice. Edwards, Richardson, Obama and Vilsack seem to be the second choices of the people I am talking to.

doing well in these polls, while people get sick of Hillary, and obama and hillary getting in the mud..

A poll that might actually matter---a primary state poll.

Nice to see Edwards maintain his double digit lead.

McCain is really sinking if Guliani is now 7 points ahead.

Very early, but I'm glad to see Edwards doing well.

He may be sitting at only 3%, but that's certainly a much better place to be than 1%.  I get the feeling that Iowans and people across the nation are looking for a better option than three senators, two which supported the war and one without much experience.  

The problem is perceived legitimacy.  The media only talks about the big three, and voters want to vote for a winner.  As more people hear about Richardson though, I think you'll see his numbers continue to rise, and with that will come press attention and then the legitimacy is takes to be seen as a top tier candidate, which will help him immeasurably in nationwide polls and fundraising efforts.

You might want to look at the internals on that poll, particularly the Republican numbers. Very interesting numbers regarding Republican support for withdrawal:

3. Do you favor a withdrawal of all United States military from Iraq within the next six months? (Republicans Only)
Yes 48%
No 37%
Undecided 15%

One Word

Electability

That is John Edwards

be crossing each other out. Leaves a good place for Edwards to be.

After Hillary and Barack attack each other enough, people will be sick of it, and will go to Edwards.

I still think he is underestimated and the MSM has alot to do with it.

Nice to see Edwards on top.  Obama and Clinton seem to have been anointed by the media, but it's nice to see that Edwards might actually pull this off.  Still, Edwards in Iowa, Hillary in NH, and then Edwards runs out of money, and it comes down to Obama vs. Clinton.

Oh well. I hope Edwards can pull it off.

I think because of the front-loading, he or she who wins Iowa, wins the nomination.

It's so tough to read these Iowa polls ... we all have no idea what they really mean. It's interesting that Vilsack is so consistently low in his home state, but he's clearly got a huge organizational edge on the rest of them. Of course, he moved Atrios today to take the firmest stand I've ever seen Mr. Black take against a Democrat not named Lieberman, which can't be good considering the reason.

First rule of Democratic politics: don't fuck with Social Security. Just. Don't.

Hillary and Obama taking shots at each other will show that Barack is no different than any other politician.

Edwards experience from the last campaign will carryover into victories in both Iowa and Nevada.

The Q poll favorability ratings show that 26% of Americans still don't know enough about him to make a firm opinion on his candidacy.

Edwards has got my vote.

Edwards/Obama or Edwards/Richardson will be the democratic ticket in 2008.

Hillary has peaked.... She isn't Bill Clinton

Obama is currently in the honeymoon period. Yes Folks there are about 11 more months until the caucus voters organize.

By December of 2007 John Edwards will have this nomination in the bag.

If the election was tomorrow this would be a great poll for Edwards. But since it isn't he should be worried.

This poll indicates that his jello has set and unfortunately for him he is in the lead. The only thing he can now hope for is to maintain that lead. The story otherwise will be of his fading hopes. Let's face it the race really wont solidify until late fall early winter and Edwards will be burdened with the Iowa front runner probably until then. So he just may be forced into a must win Iowa. Edwards needs Hillary in the lead or he loses the expectations game and without that bump how does he compete in Super Duper Tuesday? Given that he will need an Obama implosion to make headway.

Obama's jello hasn't set. From what I can see he wont implode, but equally he wont explode. Iowa is just to old for generational politics. I really don't see him making any major mistakes in the Senate at least for the Democratic base. I can see his can't we all just get along taking some hits though.

Hillary's numbers probably reflect her true base support of somewhere around 20% in Iowa. She wont do any worse than that no matter what happens. And this is before the Bill Clinton remember me tour.

Vilsak is headed to single digits and what dwindles away will go to Hillary and possibly Richardson or Clark.

Richardson has a chance to surprise and get a true bounce. We really just don't know how well he will play .

Clark has much the same chance as Richardson.

But then he is my guy and it is hard to be objective. Up until him I can look at the field thinking who would I support if he doesn't get in.

Given that if what I've been hearing in his recent speeches is correct he has the potential to truly break out.

Despite what the current presidential administration says, terrorism is not the biggest threat facing the United States, retired Army Gen. Wesley Clark told a Colgate University audience Tuesday.
It's the global economy that threatens to leave us behind, he said.
"Our jobs, our economy . . . are liable to be held hostage in the future to China and, to a lesser extent, to India," he said. "If we don't get our house in order our education system, our health care system, our business climate we can't keep up in the competition of the global marketplace."
It's the global economy that threatens to leave us behind, he said.

Clark is probably the only candidate that can get away with this right now and through the summer. The implication of a post war on terror world with the associated implication that it is a problem that he can deal with is a powerful message to a war weary electorate.

The numbers seem about right at least for the 3 heavyweights. Edwards' long term investment in Iowa is worth a lot more than one or two high profile visits from HRC and Obama.

For me, the greatest image of the 2004 campaign was a pre-caucus photo of Edwards giving his stump speech to five folks in a tiny Valley Junction living room. Iowa LOVES this guy so I think his #1 rating in this poll is spot on.

Having said this, I think he was lame in his face-off against soon-to-be felon Richard Brian Cheney in the '04 debate and not much better v. Timmah on "Meet The Press" a few weeks back.

As far as Richardson skipping this state, he should ask Flip-Flop McCain how it worked out for him in 2000.

The Obama rally in Ames a few weeks back was amazing stagecraft that would make Herr KKKarl Rove blush. 6,000+ concert goers at a rock star venue ready to flick their Bics. Obama never blew the roof off the joint, but it's early and I like his chances here.

Here's to Hillary imploding, Al jumping in, and Obama accepting the Veep.