MyDD :: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner

Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner

by Jerome Armstrong, Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 09:50:28 AM EST

The traditional media, for months now, has been telling everyone that the race on the GOP side is between the frontrunner John McCain and the challenger Mitt Romney. Meanwhile, Rudy Giuliani has extended his lead both in the national polling and in the conservative blogosphere polling this month.

David All has a take on their blogger poll. With Gingrich placing second, it makes it harder to even see who is in second place. Soren Dayton has a good read on the targets about to be placed on Giuliani.

The McCain Republicans are all for Giuliani becoming the frontrunner, and the earlier the better. For the most part, the rise of Giuliani has been accomplished while the McCain and Romney camps war against eachother. Giuliani has a "hold the line" strategy for the first couple of events in Iowa and New Hampshire, with plans for a massive media campaign on Feb. 5th. The longer he stays out of the limelight, the better his chances to skate to the nomination without having to confront the fact that social conservatives don't know Rudy is pro-choice and pro-gay. Or, is 'terrorism' the marker now for GOP candidates?

The GOP blogger poll does not seem to include much of the social conservative or evangelical blogosphere, but instead seems operative and conservative movement based-- a place in the conservative world where the propagation of a global confrontation in Iraq & Iran of Islamic fundamentalism trump the social fundamentalist issues of their own party.

It strikes me that the Republican operatives and the conservative movement have no clue why they lost in 2006. They lost precisely because of this foolish war that Bush began in Iraq, and is intent on extending into Iran. The reason why Giuliani and McCain are plummeting is because they are embracing the worst failure of the Bush administration.

I want a election for 2008 that looks like it might not happen, but should. Newt Gingrich vs Al Gore. That would be a base election on both sides. Gingrich would represent the conservative movement on ideological and historical terms, and Gore would represent the progressive partisan-based movement that has emerged this decade. That would be one hell of an election.

Tags: Rudy Giuliani, John McCain, Newt Gingrich, Al Gore (all tags)

Permalink :: 42 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

I still have a very hard time seeing Giuliani making it through the primaries, but I think it'd be a godsend if he did. There's no way any GOP candidate can win without serious, active support from evangelicals. And Rudy won't have that, to put it mildly.

I think Newt's running, though, and I think he'll probably win the nomination. He's the only viable candidate with the proper bona fides with the socons. Brownback I just don't see getting the traction, and the big three are such obvious panderers on social issues, it's hilarious.

What's Newt's positions on immigration?

by BriVT on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 10:09:30 AM EST

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

Newt does have two ugly, adulterous divorces of his own that would put me off from voting for him, but maybe the "evangelical Christians" have different moral standards.

by joyful alternative on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 10:37:57 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (3.00 / 1)

Yeah, it's one of the things that I don't exactly get with the evangelicals ... support for folks like Newt. Newt's personal life is so obviously heinous, but it doesn't seem to matter. I mean, he's not perfect for evangelicals (Bush's myth of the addict who found Jesus and now lives a God fearin' life is close to perfect for them), but he gets their support as a consistent conservative.

In a large sense, the GOP's two main sources of support don't overlap too much. Those are the big money establishment of Rangers and Pioneers, and the activist base of evangelicals and other social conservatives. Bush was able to meld the two seemlessly under him, but it became a bit of a cult of personality, rather than a true political coalition. Now there's no one in the primary field that pulls it off. McCain, Rudy, and Romney all have major support among the establishment, but varying degrees of skepticism among the activists. Brownback and others have more cred with the activists, but don't have the establishment support to even get a hearing in the mainstream. I just can't see Huckabee building enough support in time to break out.

Which leaves Newt. Wide support among the activists and a lot of connections. To me, either Romney finesses his past statements enough to placate the activists, or Newt's got a clear path to the nomination. Meanwhile, McCain's team will savage both.

I don't think the GOP is in a good situation, at all.

by BriVT on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 11:59:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

I agree with your assessment BriVT. I think there is a difference between the primaries and the General. IMO the SOCONS are going to work feverishly to defeat a Giuliani or a McCain nomination. If in fact the GOP think that Giuliani will be more palatable in the general election, it seem best to depress the SOCON turn out during the primaries and whip it up into a frenzy come the general. The gamble being that SOCONS are more likely to vote GOP vs. DEM in the general, especially if the GOP can maneuver local initiatives on Gay Marriage or Abortion Rights on the ballot in 2008.

by Kingstongirl on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 02:26:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

I'm afraid that none of you really see what is going on here. The GOP knows it's going to lose badly in the Presidential election come 2008 no matter who it runs. They know that they don't have anybody for this particular election cycle who can replace George W. Bush, but they will find someone someday who can replace the
Chimp. They may not in this cycle but you can be assured that they will have a replacement for Bush in a future cycle. They are mearely bidding their time until they can find someone young that they can pamper and mold in their image to carry the torch. The question now is where will GWB and Ronald Reagan's torch carrier come from. Could it be from the rank and file of the Religious Right? The College Republicans maybe? Or possibly some two-bit state office holder who has the cajons, the connections, and the charisma? Maybe some intern at the Heritage Foundation? It doesn't matter. My point is that we Liberals need to be ready for when that day arrives. You all know that the Conservative movement will eventually find a new charismatic dimwit to replace Bush. The next potential Bush could be sitting down right now, somewhere, on the verge of being drafted by the apparatus of the GOP and the Right Wing. It's only a matter of who and when.

by activecitizen2007 on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 05:45:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

From everything I've heard we should be wary of Jeb. If the Right were ever able to make people forget that he is George's brother, Jeb Bush would become that charcter you describe.

by Derzocrat on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 06:21:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (3.00 / 1)

It's really not surprising-- the GOP is the do-as-I-say-not-as-I-do party, and most even among the religious right aren't so stupid as to believe that they can really eliminate [what they consider] sexual immorality... their objective is to drive it underground. Closeted gays, secret abortions, incest as a 'family matter,' and all manner of dirty little secrets are fine and even make life interesting when the gossip is about their neighbors, but openness, honesty, and the good old disinfectant that is sunlight horrifies them. It takes all the fun & titillation out of speculating about others' private lives, and allows too many potential victims of their censure an escape.

Anyway, they don't care if politicians are dirty-- that's an old assumption most still hold-- because they want pols to clamp down on the rest of us, those who aren't rich & well-connected enough to do whatever the hell we want. It's a very pragmatic (actually, cynical) perspective.

by latts on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 07:33:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

Well said.

Many on the far-right would prefer a twice-divorced, adulterer who holds the line on the "moral issues" than someone who is faithful to his (or her) first spouse and is more tolerant than others.

by wayward on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 09:14:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (3.00 / 1)

"There's no way any GOP candidate can win without serious, active support from evangelicals. And Rudy won't have that, to put it mildly."

Wrong! Evangelicals will support Rudi, they'd support Sponge-Bob Square-Pants if their leaders told them to.

Remember that these are the 20% or so of the nation that are authoritarian loving sheeple. They do what they're told.

And imagine if Hillary is the Democratic candidate. Republicans would vote for a gay abortionist rather than see Hillary become President!

During the last election we saw that Republicans will turn out in droves to vote no matter what the national mood. Gay Republicans romping with boy-toy Senate pages? No problem! Stay the course, despite disaster in Iraq? Nothing to see here, keep moving! Economic stagnation and loss of their jobs? Alfred E. Newman: "What? Me worry?"

Rove didn't fail to turn out the base, his base equaled Democratic turnout across the nation. Republicans lost because independents turned out in large numbers and voted Democratic.

No matter how bad things get between now and 2008 Republicans will turn out for whoever their candidate is. There will be NO drop-off in turnout, just as there wasn't any drop-off during this past election.

Rudi will simply have to say "I've reformed" and evangelicals will hold their nose and vote for him.

The proof of this is the dead-in-the-water campatign of Sam Brownback. He's a perfect wing-nut, with no squishiness on abortion or prayer in schools or Iraq or anything for that matter.

So, why isn't his campaign soaring? Because the big-money boys know Brownback would be crushed like a bug in the general election, so they won't support him. Just as R.I. Republicans did exactly what they were told and nominated Chafee -- who went against the party line about 70% of the time over Laffey -- a died in the wool Republican. Why?

Because they knew Chafee was their only chance to win.

Guiliani is the Republican's only hope in 2008. McCain is sinking like a stone, Romney is a Mormon, Brownback is a N0-Hoper from the start.

Republicans are all about power. Want to win? Vote Rudi and hold your nose.

by Cugel on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 11:08:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (3.00 / 1)

And how'd that Chafee thing work out for the RSCC?

Yeah, Brownback isn't getting support from big money types ... how does that have anything to do with evangelical ground troops? And Brownback isn't perfect with the socons ... in fact, one of their biggest current issues finds him a bit squishy: immigration. He's more mainstream on immigration than the socons, which is a drag on his candidacy considering immigration is the current flashpoint for a lot of the activist socons.

The evangelicals aren't a collection of unthinking morons available for anyone. They've stuck with the GOP this last 7 years because they believe George Bush is special, one of them. But if the party goes wtih Rudy? Gawd, meltdown. Yeah, they hate Hillary, which would mitigate it somewhat (if Hillary were the nominee). But a good portion just wouldn't work to elect Rudy. No way. I know some evangelicals, and they'd never do it.

But Rudy's never going to make it. One viral email through the evangelical channels and a couple targetted mailers into Iowa and SC, and he's dead in the water. And that doesn't even get to a whisper campaign among the big money types about the skeletons in that guy's closet. Hell, I could knock off Rudy. There's a reason McCain and Romney haven't bothered to try yet ...

by BriVT on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 11:22:10 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

And Brownback has his own problems with the SOCONs, I'd think. He's a recent convert away from them into Opus Dei.

by joyful alternative on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 03:53:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

"authoritarian loving sheeple"

You are a smug, arrogant, bastard. If you think calling 20-25% of the electorate "sheeple" is a good thing for the Democratic Party or the progressive movement, you are a real idiot. Many of the economic values that progressives hold dear were born from the Evangelical movement in this country. Ever hear of Willam Jennings Bryan? There's a mixed bag of ideas and levels of sophistication in every group of people. That's why we on the left are supposed to oppose stereotyping. Oh wait, it's OK to stereotype members of religious faiths. That's part of towing the anti-clerical line. It seems like you're the sheep.

Read a book, and stop hurting our movement with your poisonous rhetoric.

"ex nihilo nihil fit"

by Lassallean on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 11:45:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

I'm not so sure about that mate. But I will say one thing and that is this: Can we please NOT Forecast potential setbacks for the opposition? I don't want ANYONE to be under the impression that the cat is already in the bag and not show up and vote. The fact of the matter is we turned out better than them in 06 but not by much, their ground game is going to be that much harder and more forceful now, Let's cross our fingers and hope that it alienates the base while doing our best to get our people out there!

by fireinthedawn on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 05:06:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (3.00 / 1)

I have to admit I used to be one of the "no way in hell Guilini is winning the nomination people" but it's hard to continue to hold that stance. People keep saying conservatives won't vote for him once they know about his social stances, but my question is who the hell doesn't know about Guilini's social stances? If there is one thing you know about Guilini it's that he's a pro-gay rights, pro-choice, pro-gun control Republican (well I guess that's 3 things). Obviously many social conservatives will find this unacceptable, but they may not have a viable choice this time. Conservatives hate McCain more than Guilini and nobody else has proven themselves yet.

by blueryan on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 12:45:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

I think a lot of people don't know anything about Giuliani beyond the "American's Mayor, 9/11 Hero" schtick. We are, after all, a bit odd. We know these things. I saw a picture of Maria Cantwell recently, and my wife said, "Who's that other woman?" And I replied, "Darcy Burner. Ran for Congress in Washington State." That's just not normal.

I think a lot of Giuliani's support is from his tough-guy image, and very little is widely known about his social stances and peculiar personal life.

by BriVT on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 03:05:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

And, actually, there's polling to back up my assertion. As quoted in Real Clear Politics:

The biggest red flag for Rudy has to be that only 42% of Republicans surveyed correctly identified him as pro-choice. Twenty-one percent of Republican voters have it wrong and think Rudy is pro-life, and another 36% of Republicans don't have a clue what his position on abortion. In other words, nearly six out of ten registered Republican voters have yet to learn something about Rudy which, we can infer from the first question on abortion, will make close to half of them either "somewhat" less likely or "a lot" less likely to vote for him. There's no doubt the same holds true of his position on civil unions for gays, and the Second Amendment as well.

Actually, I'd bet even fewer people know he's for civil unions than know he's pro-choice. Fifty percent of all Republicans are less likely to vote for someone in favor of civil unions, with nearly 40% "a lot less likely." I'd bet the numbers among primary voters are even higher. And his gun control history ... whew. I'm sorry, but these are foundational things for the GOP base. There are huge infrastructures built up to demagogue these precise issues.

by BriVT on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 04:43:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The negative ads are still months away (none / 0)

by Cyt on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 04:22:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Gore vs. Gingrich (3.00 / 1)

I would love to see that match-up too, if for no other reason than the Democrats would carry 40 states.

by thirdestate on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 10:31:46 AM EST

Re: Gore vs. Gingrich (none / 0)

Don't be so sure. Things change fast.

"You say the world has lost it's love I say embrace what it's made of" -Dar Williams

by Valatan on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 03:05:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gore vs. Gingrich (none / 0)

I suppose my stripes as an independent would show through. I actually support both of these candidates. Newt, although the "progressives" might disagree, figured out long before anyone else how to use the power of the net - and how to harness movements based on action - in american politics. The democrats hate it, but newt's "contract with america" galvanized the conservative movement. And he was the only speaker to ever publicly state support for Java. His ability to use the net helped him to placate the evangelicals and temper them into a force - his own party deserted him after he chose to use the monica lewinsky scandal as a rally point. In effect, his own party deserted him. His ideology is tempered with a deep knowledge and support of the grassroots. In essence, he is progressive.

Al Gore understands policy, almost to the point of fine detail. He is clearly a strong leader, his stances on the environment helped me to vote for him and against bush in 2000, and to help me to join the democratic party despite my strong libertarian leanings. He writes his own speeches and they are phenomenal - he understands and is aware of online activism and has over the course of years, lost his "wooden" trait - a trait based mostly on fear and one that likely lost him 2000.

If I could just graft the policy of Al Gore onto the political intuition and machiavellian character of Gingrich we would have a statesman that could lead America out to Alpha Centauri..

I think however in this next election newt will not announce.

.. and when I win the lottery, gonna donate half my money to the city so they have to name a school or a park after me - camper van beethoven

by heyAnita on Sun Feb 18, 2007 at 05:55:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gore vs. Gingrich (none / 0)

If you would really consider supporting Gingrich for any reason at all, you are either on the wrong website or vastly undereducated about the motivations of the man.

by lightyearsfromhome on Mon Feb 19, 2007 at 08:35:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nope. (none / 0)

We'd see a landslide on the order of 1984's Mondale vs. Reagan matchup if Newt were to run against Obama. The contrast would be completely clear. That said, anyone from the top Dem tier would completely rout Gingrich. Gingrich is all about negativity -- and only negativity. There isn't anything he can do against a full-halo charismatic JFK-style figure. If Gingrich is a vampire sucking the soul out of our political discourse, hope is garlic.

In my mind, that would make Hillary the weakest of the top tier against him, except that Newt is an asshole first class. He literally abandoned his wife and children -- their church had to take up a collection for them -- no woman outside of a megachurch will ever vote for him.

Fittingly, he would be the final nail in the coffin that he personally constructed for the GOP.

by lightyearsfromhome on Mon Feb 19, 2007 at 08:53:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I think a social conservative will emerge (none / 0)

I see one of the social conservatives breaking out by having a change of heart on Iraq (not criticizing Bush but saying we've done all we can and now it's time to come home). My next-door neighbor Republicans still won't admit that the Iraq War was a mistake, but they do think it's time to bring the troops home.

An anti-abortion Republican who can make this case could win big. I don't know if it's Huckabee or Brownback or Gingrich or whoever, but the gay-loving, adulterous pro-choice Giuliani has about as much chance of getting out of the GOP primary as I do.

Iraq is going to sink McCain, and the GOP will never nominate a Mormon from Massachusetts who used to be pro-choice.

Join the Iowa progressive community at Bleeding Heartland.

by desmoinesdem on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 10:42:40 AM EST

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

The National Religious Broadcasters will be meeting in Orlando next week. We should get a good idea how the fundies are moving.

by ATinNM on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 11:07:45 AM EST

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

McCain Announces Florida Team right on the heels of Jeb pushing his supporters towards Rommney: Things are getting interesting in the sunshine state!

Senator John McCain announced a Florida advisory team of prominent Republicans, in some cases emphasizing their links to former Gov. Jeb Bush.

-- Former Attorney General Jim Smith, who ran against Bush in the 1994 primary for governor, but then became a Bush political ally. Smith is a former democrat turned republican.

-- Former state GOP Vice Chairman Allison DeFoor
and senior advisor to Jeb Bush's 1994 campaign for Governor. DeFoor is a former Monroe County Sheriff and was the running mate to Governor Bob Martinez in 1990 campaign against Lawton Chiles.

-- Mac Stipanovich, former chief-of-staff to Governor Bob Martinez and now Tallahassee lobbyist.

-- J. Antonio Villamil, former Chairman of Bush's Council of Economic Advisors

-- Cory Tilley, a Tallahassee political and public relations consultant and former deputy chief of staff and press spokesman for Bush.

where is rudy's list??

by thebrillbrigade on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 11:08:35 AM EST

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (3.00 / 1)

Here's the way the Republicans will "sell" Rudy: They will allow Rudy's past positions to remain in the forefront (i.e., the MSM); say just enough publicly to confuse the issue and make him appear to be a "moderate;" while using their network of evangelicals, think-tanks, and conservative media outlets to subtly (via Republispeak) assure their base that Rudy's really one of them - that he'll appoint ONLY conservative judges and push for a Constitutional amendment to outlaw gay marriage. That way, the ignorant independents will vote for what they'll think is "competence" and "compassion" but what is, in reality - "conservative" and "Cro-Magnon."

by randron on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 11:36:41 AM EST

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (3.00 / 1)

I've been in favor of a Gore-Gingrich matchup for months now... not that I think a nineties-redux campaign will actually happen, but the substance of it would be a hell of a lot more than we're used to seeing, and Newt's entertainment value alone would be more than worth the price of admission.

by latts on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 11:37:59 AM EST

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

I've been following the increasing desperation of hard core Republicans on Red County /OCBlog, a highly partisan group blog. Recent posts regarding Rudi are here and here and here.

For the operatives and the big money donors, it's all about electability, so they are looking for someone who can stand clear of the Bush record.

Rudy and Mitt, despite their huge drawbacks for the base, are the only potential candidates who can try to distance themselves from Bush and his record.

Seeing Anaheim Mayor Curt Pringle, one of the smartest elected Republicans in the state, throw his support behind Rudi is instructive.

by Aeolus on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 01:21:45 PM EST

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

Giuliani has been latching himself onto the Bush war plan, though. If he want to distance himself, he's not been doing a very good job of it yet.

by LPMandrake on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 07:07:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (3.00 / 1)

I started mentioning this on MyDD and other progressive sites early last summer, based on my observations from a couple of balanced sites I post on. Particularly balanced sites that are not politically oriented, but merely the political forums of sports sites, and the average Joe right winger is posting there, not hard core political types.

I was shocked at the support for Rudy, from all ranges of the conservative dial. Posters who I never would believe would support Guilani based on their rantings on supposedly core issues were firm and vocal on his behalf. They despise and distrust McCain, for the most part, and still are. They view Guilani as the ticket to winning and therefore are willing to overlook philosophical differences, views that are conventional-wisdom labeled as disqualifying on progressive sites.

For a few months I read those pro-Rudy posts daily, then saw it confirmed in statewide polling from Strategic Vision, states all across the country indicating a large lead for Rudy over McCain. What the hell, I took 10-1 on Rudy winning the GOP nomination. That may end up being a pure loser but those odds have plummeted so I like my position.

Guiliani has plenty of teflon, that's very obvious. When I mention his personal issues to tourists and locals here in Las Vegas they wave them off with a laugh.

by Gary Kilbride on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 02:03:05 PM EST

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

Yeah, this is my observation, too. I think that image is more important than ideology to a very wide swath of voters. If a candidate is willing to 'fight for them,' voters are willing to overlook a lot about the candidates ideology. Look at Schweitzer and Tester--both way more left than Montana. It's why Kerry moving to the center didn't work, and why Russ Feingold would have been more viable than people think.

"You say the world has lost it's love I say embrace what it's made of" -Dar Williams

by Valatan on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 03:07:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

It's true, I'm afraid....

AS ne conservative columnist said, "Conservatives WANT to like Giulliani."

I'm hoping that a depserate McCain campaign will pull out all the stops during the primaries, and, possibly erode a significant amount of support. The problem is, McCain has nocredibility with the Christian Right, either.... It's unlikely that any of his attacks will be effective.

This is really not a good trend. He is alot like GW in 2000... the "reasonable" republican... I think his negatives acutally help him in the general election, because it makes him look more human and look less like a winger.

Thanks,

Mike

by lordmikethegreat on Sun Feb 18, 2007 at 04:12:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Happiness (none / 0)

At the end of the day, even the theocons will line up behind Guiliani if it means either him or a Democratic president.

Guiliani will offer them court appointments and the service of keeping mum on the social issues in exchange for their vote. They'll keep the fight on abortion and gay marriages at the state level. Guiliani will continue to wage their crusade in the middle east (even if he's doing so for different reasons). Of course, he'll continue the Republican policy of giving Big Business everything it wants, something which has never bothered the theocons. And everyone (on the Right) goes home happy.

TAKE BACK OUR PARTY: Democracy Bonds

by LiberalFromPA on Sun Feb 18, 2007 at 02:21:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

I think the republican side is more poised for a dark horse candidate to emerge then the democratic side is.

I fully expect a Brownback or Huckabee to be the beneficiary of the top tier Republicans and the splits in the republican party base(s) ripping each other apart.

I don't expect McCain or Giuliani being the nominee. Gingrich maybe, Romney doubtful, but more likely one of third tier guys catching fire and the support of one of the bases within the republican party.

The 10,000 Things

by Andrew C White on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 02:12:08 PM EST

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

If Huckabee or Brownback can finish second in Iowa, I'd watch out. The problem holding them back, though, is that they may divide up their support too much. If Huckabee drops out in August like he says (if he does poorly in the straw poll), then that could really help clear the way for Brownback to be the great social conservative hope. Brownback may be stronger anyways, since he doesn't have Grover Norquist punching him in the gut.

by LPMandrake on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 07:05:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

huckabee and brownback are both doa. McCain has strong support and on this blog the idea that he is the front runner is often challenged simply to try to divide the base out there who are trying to spy on the competition.

Grover norquist gets into this, expect to see gingrich doing something because ever since newt left the game he's been hanging out with Grover at ATR

.. and when I win the lottery, gonna donate half my money to the city so they have to name a school or a park after me - camper van beethoven

by heyAnita on Sun Feb 18, 2007 at 05:59:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

Rudy poses a big challenge to any Democrat who gets the nomination. From the polls I see this would hurt Obama the most if he is the nominee.

by bsavage on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 04:23:37 PM EST

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

What's the point in looking at general election polls at this stage?

by LPMandrake on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 07:01:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

exactly! I think that presidential politics at this point, is highly indicative.

imho anyone who is really deeply into the presidential races and not into trying to whip the congressional horse around the training pen and get out the kinks - is in effect, practicing political masturbation.

.. and when I win the lottery, gonna donate half my money to the city so they have to name a school or a park after me - camper van beethoven

by heyAnita on Sun Feb 18, 2007 at 06:00:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

Curiously, in the Fox/Opinion Dynamics poll recently, Hillary was trailing (40%/49%) by slightly more than Obama (39%/45%) in a matchup against Rudy Guiliani among all voters. And her support among Republican 'might vote for' respondents was only 15% to his 29%. Are we reading the same polls?

by Shaun Appleby on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 08:17:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

IMHO Rudy is much more likely than McCain at this point. The Repubs will always go for a partisan moderate over a conservative maverick. When you ask most Giuliani supporters why they are willing to overlook his social positions they simply say none of that matters if you are killed by terrorists and that Rudy will protect them. Of course they don't seem to realise the chances of being killed by terrorists is lower than being struck by a meteor or comet but since when did facts matter to these robotic cowards.

by conspiracy on Mon Feb 19, 2007 at 09:33:42 AM EST

Re: Rudy Giuliani is the Republican frontrunner (none / 0)

"I want a election for 2008 that looks like it might not happen, but should. Newt Gingrich vs Al Gore. That would be a base election on both sides. Gingrich would represent the conservative movement on ideological and historical terms, and Gore would represent the progressive partisan-based movement that has emerged this decade. That would be one hell of an election." It certainly would be. We need people who are the opposite of the bush administration.
Tim Drug rehabilitation

by timada on Thu Feb 07, 2008 at 09:12:56 AM EST

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