MyDD :: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plummets

Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plummets

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 01:52:03 AM EST

Late last month, I began to track a trend within the electorate: The two supposed frontrunners for the Republican presidential nomination -- John McCain and Rudy Giuliani -- were both noticeably slipping among Americans, seriously calling into question their electability. A new Opinion Dynamics poll (.pdf) commissioned by Fox News, which has a sample that is significantly more Republican-leaning than has been found in other recent polling with much lower margins of error, seems to confirm the above findings and indicate that, what's more, even the potential for support for these two candidates is dropping.

When asked a year ago by Opinion Dynamics would, could or would not support Giuliani in a presidential election, a whopping 71 percent of voters said that they "definitely" vote for him (33 percent) or "might" vote for him (38 percent). Today just 59 percent would support (15 percent) or consider voting for him (44 percent). Note the drop of 12 points overall and the decline of 18 points in hard support.

A year ago 70 percent of the electorate stated they would definitely support McCain (30 percent) or might support him (40 percent). Today, just 51 percent of voters would consider voting for him, with a mere 9 percent giving him hard support and another 43 percent stating a willingness to support him. Note here that McCain's potential for support dropped by 19 points overall and his percentage of core backers fell a stunning 21 percent.

Lest you think that this is a trend that has affected Republican and Democrat alike, Hillary Clinton -- the only Democratic candidate polled both last year and this month -- did not see any significant shift in overall support, with her hard support falling 17 percent but her potential support dropping just 2 percent.

While it's certainly true that all of the Democratic candidates listed (Clinton plus fellow perceived frontrunners John Edwards and Barack Obama) matches Giuliani's potential for support -- though Obama comes close with 57 percent to Giuliani's 59 percent. That said, in politics trends are often more important than absolute numbers. So the fact that Democrats are holding firm in their potential for support among the electorate while the leading Republican candidates are seeing their numbers fall by double-digit margins cannot bode well for the GOP as it heads into this presidential cycle.

Tags: John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, 2008 (all tags)

Permalink :: 31 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani (none / 0)

Definitely a skewed sample, though. There is no way an almost even split of 50% self-identified Republicans and Democrats is representative of current demographics.

Having said that, I found interesting that Gingrich has moved into the #2 position for "hard support" ahead of McCain while also sporting a whopping 44% "would definitely not vote for" from Republicans. Of course, they left Romney out of this poll, which may have led to Gingrich surging some in the "hard support" category, as it seems that Romney is staking out the conservative vote right now.

by georgep on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 02:10:20 AM EST

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

I guess the only thing you can say for sure from this is that McCain is really tanking.

Interesting that Obama's aggregate support is slightly higher than Hillary's, and he is significantly stronger among independents; and there is still that 10% of don't knows for him to her 3%.

Hillary's figures have almost exactly reversed between hard/soft support since last year; 18%/34% now vs 35%/19% last February.

Early days.

by Shaun Appleby on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 02:33:06 AM EST

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

In that context, what I found interesting was that amongst Democrats (primary voters) there is a larger group that would "definitely not vote for" Obama (19%) when compared to HRC (17%.) Of course, Edwards is worse off in that telling category with a full 31% of self-proclaimed Democrats stating that they would "definitely not" vote for him.

by georgep on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 09:28:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

Wow. I'm really surprised at the Edwards number. I don't find him objectionable at all, even though he's not my choice ... I wonder what's causing that. I'd have switched HRC's and Edwards's numbers if I were to guess.

by BriVT on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 09:48:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

I'm surprised at that too. But if you aggregate hard/soft support among Democrats it goes Hillary (80%), Obama (72%) and Edwards (63%) which is not far off the other recent polling.

by Shaun Appleby on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 09:55:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

I think to the average voter, not My DD Readers, but the average Democratic voter, Edwards is that guy who ran with Kerry and Lost. The MSM haven't really focused on his campaign, because they think they heard everything he had to say in 2004. This lack of coverage prevents voters from hearing about his health care plan and his positions on unions, poverty, etc ,and thus forming a new opinion of him. Further, Hillary has the Clinton name and is seeking to make history as the first female president. Obama is similar and he is "clean and articulate". The good news for Edwards is that these voters also have no idea about his "mansion" and blogger drama. Edwards has to find a way to be new to the MSM and the voters so they will listen to his message, which is an uphill battle with Obama and Hillary as opponents.

by Kingstongirl on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 11:51:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

When I hear that phrase make history as the first female president I realise why her rather hazy positioning in the campaign isn't important to some of her supporters. And it helps explain why her policy, and rhetoric, seems mostly about the winning part.

I certainly hope somebody's giving some thought to what she plans to do the day after she makes history. It worries me, I gotta' tell you.

by Shaun Appleby on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 12:17:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

No offense, but as an Obama supporter you are not at all concerned about the same thing? I try to get a "good feel" for him, something that makes me believe that he has the IT. Of course he has very little actual experience in national politics, but that could be made up with sharp policy proposals, substance laid over substance. I know some of you start to swoon when he talks about the "big picture," but, may I be excused for wanting more than someone talking incessantly about "fate" and "history" and give nuts and bolts policy proposals that an average person can actually DO something with? IMO Obama is the true lightweight in this race, the person who is mostly a facade at this point. Maybe he can flesh this out at a later point and get down to the business that requires him to pull up his sleeves and talk in real terms rather than about "grand journeys" that I may or may not be willing to take WITH him in charge. So far I would not feel good about giving him that wheel.

by georgep on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 02:17:58 PM EST
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Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

Not at all. In fact I started my journey to supporting him with a thorough look at the legislation he had proposed in the Senate and was most impressed. He is on topic. He was absolutiely spot on about the war in Iraq, energy security, carbon emissions, nuclear proliferation, and has a Constitutional lawyer's fine sense of civil liberties. Here is just an example of stuff he has already done:

WASHINGTON, 8 Sep 2006 - U.S. Senators Barack Obama (D-IL) and Tom Coburn (R-OK) today hailed the Senate's passage of the "Federal Funding Accountability and Transparency Act," a bill that will create a Google-like search engine and database to track approximately $1 trillion in federal grants, contracts, earmarks and loans. "By helping to lift the veil of secrecy in Washington, this database will help make us better legislators, reporters better journalists, and voters more active citizens," Obama said.

WASHINGTON, 29 Sep 2006 - Legislation authored by U.S. Senators Barack Obama (D-IL) and Tom Coburn, M.D. (R-OK) that will stop the abuse of no-bid contracting in the aftermath of a disaster was included in the final Department of Homeland Security funding bill likely to pass the Senate today. After Senate passage, the bill will go to the President's desk to be signed into law.

WASHINGTON, 14 Nov 2006 - U.S. Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) today announced that during the 110th Congress he will serve on four committees: the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, the Senate Committee on Veterans' Affairs, the Senate Committee on Health, Education, Labor and Pensions, and the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs. Senator Obama served on three committees during the 109th Congress.

WASHINGTON, 17 Nov 2006 - U.S. Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) this week introduced legislation to protect Americans from tactics that intimidate voters and prevent them from exercising their right to vote on Election Day. The legislation builds on similar legislation he introduced last year by including specific language to address misleading fliers and harassing robocalls that occurred during the 2006 cycle.

WASHINGTON, 6 Dec 2006 - Obama-Hatch Tithing Bill: The House of Representatives today gave final approval to a bill sponsored by Senators Barack Obama (D-IL) Orrin G. Hatch (R-Utah) to protect an individual's right to continue reasonable charitable contributions, including religious tithing, during the course of consumer bankruptcy. The measure passed the United States Senate in late September and will now be presented to the President for his signature.

WASHINGTON, 5 Jan 2007 - American Fuels Act of 2007: U.S. Senators Barack Obama (D-IL), Richard Lugar (R-IN) and Tom Harkin (D-IA) announced today that they have introduced comprehensive legislation to both increase the production of renewable fuels like ethanol, and make that expanded volume of fuel more widely available to motorists nationwide.

WASHINGTON, 11 Jan 2007 - Lugar-Obama Proliferation and Threat Reduction Initiative: President Bush today signed the Lugar-Obama proliferation and threat reduction initiative into law. Authored by U.S. Sens. Dick Lugar (R-IN) and Barack Obama (D-IL), the Lugar-Obama initiative expands U.S. cooperation to destroy conventional weapons. It also expands the State Department's ability to detect and interdict weapons and materials of mass destruction.

Not to mention a commitment to make universal health care a first term project, and other policy statements he has made in the course of the campaign. Oh, and the Iraq De-Escalation Bill of 2007 which is worthy of a read.

And he has virtually cornered the market, as you note, on the 'big picture' as well. In fact there are two things I just can't understand why his detractors endlessly repeat: that he has no substance and that he has no experience. You have repeated both of these. Have you not taken the trouble to check this guy out in detail? He deserves your attention.

And it is rare to find a supporter who states, as our interlocuter did above about Hillary's gender, that he will make history because of his race. I guess we all assume he will make plenty of history for other reasons.

by Shaun Appleby on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 06:49:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

I am sorry, that list of legislative achievement is very, very light and very non-substantive. Tithing? What the heck? I guess we'll agree to disagree on the substance of Obama. But maybe there is talk about it as much as there is because it is indeed fact? Perhaps the polls showing that about 20% of Democrats would definitely not vote for him, no matter what he does, have partially to do with his obvious lack of nuts and bolts legislation and policy proposals, his lack of experience on the national stage, just as much as the possible distaste (my biggest problem with Obama) that faith and religious issues would be legislated (shoved down my throat) and his position on religion in the "public square" would turn the clock way back and destroy much of what we have been fighting the religious nuts on the right-wing over. I don't WANT my president, especially a Democratic president, to inch towards those who want to include creationism in all walks of life, in our schools, National Parks, etc. I would like to ask him if he believes that the Earth was created about 5,000 years ago, how literally he takes the Bible. That would clear some things up for me, but from what I have seen so far he is not necessarily one of those theological scholars who take the Bible with a grain of salt and agree that scientific evidence contradicts a lot of what is being "reported" in the Bible itself.

Yes, I researched the guy extensively. I don't think he is the answer. In fact, none of the candidates are perfect. But with HRC and BC I know what I'll get in the White House, and seeing the right-wingers teetering on the brink of insanity because their worst nightmare has been realized is an added bonus for me.

Back to experience: Of course, Obama has not had the time to do a lot, only 2 years in. But that lack of experience on a national scale is what we are discussing here. It is real and it is a major concern for many.

There is a lot more legislation HRC worked on that has actually passed and seems more substantive. I don't want to list all of it here, going back to the BC presidency, but if you want a bullet list I'll provide one.

Of course, as always, opinions differ, which makes discussing them fun. :-)

by georgep on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 08:52:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

Well, yeah, I enjoy discussing it too but the Hegelian dialectic assumes that the interlocuters end up in a space which differs from their respective starting points and I don't see this happening here on a few points. I have developed some new ideas about Hillary supporters expectations but the co-presidency meme, for example, just raises my doubts even further. I am content we exhausted that topic recently.

I am interested to note, however, that you cite Obama's faith as the exemplar for your concern about him and I think this may be the real issue. There is nothing in what he has said on the subject that leads me to believe he has any intention to legitimise faith in law, very much the contrary. In fact if you read what he says about this he makes that clear. His position is that it is OK to talk about faith as part of the moral and value discussion in our society and I agree with him about that, I am assuming that humanism counts as a 'faith.' I am not a Christian, incidentally, but many Americans are, or assume they are. I think it is wise for him to undermine the Right by taking their ownership of this powerful, and abused, prop away from them; it has done us irreperable harm.

Is it possible that progressives have the same resistance as you have expresssed but just aren't stating it? That as humanists, or whatever, Obama's acknowledgment of his faith is threatening in ways that are not openly discussed? Are we as blind in our fear of religon as the Right is in its advocacy? That would be pretty darn blind.

This is a theme I would be more than happy to discuss further as it fits the a priori hypothesis that I have been coming around to that there is something about Obama that really gets under the skin of some progressives which is not getting frankly articulated.

by Shaun Appleby on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 09:41:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (3.00 / 1)

" His position is that it is OK to talk about faith as part of the moral and value discussion in our society and I agree with him about that, I am assuming that humanism counts as a 'faith.'"

Well, you see, I can't agree with this AT ALL. It may be ok at a water cooler or picnic issue, but if the president of the United States talks about God the way he has (often to very often) that tells me that we would be in deep trouble when legislation would be brought to him dealing with certain aspects of religion in public settings, such as the 10 commandments, the recent inclusion of Creationism literature at the Grand Canyon (which denies that the canyone is Millions of years old, as that contradicts biblical doctrine that the Earth is only 5000 years old, and the like. I see a contradiction in stating that it is OK to discuss faith as part of the PUBLIC moral and value discussion and pretending that one can maintain complete separation of church and state. It just does not compute (for me.)

I detect a holier-than-thou attitude that I find very distasteful.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/06/28/AR2006062800281.html

"Sen. Barack Obama chastised fellow Democrats on Wednesday for failing to "acknowledge the power of faith in the lives of the American people," and said the party must compete for the support of evangelicals and other churchgoing Americans."

Bullspit. They don't "fail" to do so at all. Most of them are church members and very active in their faith. They know about the power of faith in THEIR lives first-hand (for the most part,) and don't need someone who assumes HE, and only HE knows "what is best" for all of us to chastise them. They just don't believe that religion belongs in the public square. The country was founded with that exact premise, because once religion is invoked in our PUBLIC disource you throw away that separation. Where does "discussion" end and "legislation" begin? In fact, discussion leads to legislation when it comes to political discourse.

I would rather not go down that slippery slope, and therefore hope strongly that Obama is defeated in the primaries, either by HRC or Edwards or Richardson or someone else (except Biden, of course :-) )

by georgep on Sat Feb 17, 2007 at 10:59:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

Sheesh. All he is saying is that there are people of faith among the electorate, and that is true. If we cede the awareness of that to the Republicans we are missing the point, rather. We don't need to advocate faith in law to acknowledge it in our citizens.

For pity's sake, George, the man is not a creationist or a fundamentalist. And there is a difference between the 'public square' and enshrinement in law, or policy. Your fears seem unfounded based on Obama's own affirmation of the separation of church and state. Are we as blind in our fear of religon as the Right is in its advocacy? Your response answers this clearly, I rest my case.

by Shaun Appleby on Sun Feb 18, 2007 at 12:28:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

The only way Edwards can do that is by spending a lot of money on adertising to "re-introduce" himself to the voters. This goes back to the ongoing discussion about campaign financing. A good illustration of how it starts up with that ever-increasing spirale. Edwards sees himself faltering and his polls going the wrong way. The biggest prize of them all, California, shows him with only 6% support of Democrats. Florida looks similarly bleak. When the campaign realizes that many Democrats don't care for Edwards because he was a "loser" on a "losing" team four years ago how long before they decide to spend some big Dollars on ads, perhaps earlier than any other candidate to get him on better footing again? Then other candidates feel that they have to run some ads themselves, and off we go in the ad-race.

by georgep on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 02:26:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (3.00 / 1)

Yeah, that is interesting, among Democrats for pity's sake, but generally for 'definitely not vote for' he is the lowest (34%) among all candidates listed, and well behind her impressive 44%. And has virtually double her 'might vote for' support among Republicans. In fact if you aggregate their hard and soft support he comes out well ahead overall 67% to her 52%. And with 10% still 'don't know' for him. How 'bout that.

Early days yet but it looks like if he does beat her in the primary he has a much better chance than she does of winning the general election. So much for her 'electability' meme, eh?

by Shaun Appleby on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 09:50:22 AM EST
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Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

Sorry, overall 57% to 52%. Wishful dyslexia.

by Shaun Appleby on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 10:00:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: (none / 0)

Vanity Fair has a superb article on McCain in the current edition following him as he dashes around the country. I'm sure he is a deeply honourable man but the decision to do whatever it takes to get the republican nomination is hurting him not only amongst independents but also personally. The guy is so torn between saying what he really thinks and what he needs to say to please the right that it is destroying him. It's death by a thousand cuts.

Amazing that he has gone from being most feared opponent to perhaps the weakest candidate they could nominate.

http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/featu res/2007/02/mccain200702

by kundalini on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 05:32:56 AM EST

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani Plum (none / 0)

The GOP has a weak field of frontrunners.

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by robliberal on Fri Feb 16, 2007 at 07:53:05 AM EST

Re: Potential Support for McCain and Giuliani (none / 0)