First In The Nation

One of the less explored aspects of the 2008 presidential primary season is that technically, voting actually began in 2007. Floridians are already voting. From The LA Times:

Thanks to quiet changes in how busy Americans choose to vote -- namely the explosion of early absentee voting as a convenience, not a necessity caused by travel -- Florida's absentee voters will actually be the first Americans to start voting in the primary process for the 2008 election. They can start casting their ballots on Christmas Day, 23 days from now and a full nine days before Iowa's caucus-goers thought they'd be first in the nation.

The St. Petersburg Times puts it in perspective:

By some estimates, more Florida Republicans could vote by year's end than the roughly 85,000 Republicans who show up for Iowa's all-important caucuses

That might be what the Giuliani campaign meant when they said his path to the nomination, which depends heavily on a Florida win, is momentum-proof.

As for other states, by the time New Hampshire votes on January 8th, voters in several other states will have been able to cast ballots early:

On Jan. 3, the night of the Iowa caucuses (and the Fiesta Bowl that might tempt some to stay home by the TV), Arizona voters can begin voting absentee.

Californians may begin voting -- either absentee or in person at select locations -- as early as Jan. 7, a day before the once-inviolate primary primary in New Hampshire now set for Jan. 8. New Mexico voters also start voting absentee before the N.H. primary, starting on Jan. 5.

Oh, and for that matter, here's an even earlier note: overseas and military voters from California have a right to get a ballot starting in five days, on this coming Friday, Dec. 7.

So are the campaigns taking advantage of the more liberal absentee ballot rules? I'm somewhat surprised to find this out of Florida:

The two best-organized Florida campaigns, Giuliani's and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney's, have yet to aggressively encourage absentee voting beyond phone calls. But mailers urging targeted voters to vote absentee are expected to hit Florida mailboxes soon.

In California, the fact that the Obama campaign is touting the early voting rules, on the other hand, is not terribly surprising.

Debbie Mesloh, communications chief for Obama in the Golden State, noted in a recent release: "Absentee ballots for California's Feb. 5 presidential primary will be mailed out on Monday, Jan. 7; residents can apply to vote by mail until Jan. 29. According to a recent California Field Poll, more than 4.2 million of the state's 15 million registered voters -- 27.2% -- have signed up to cast their ballots by mail. In the June 2006 state primary election, a record 47% of the ballots cast came from absentee voters."

In fact...

The calls in California on behalf of Obama, by the way, began [yesterday.]

For Obama, this is a great way to translate passion for the candidate and even early state momentum from Iowa and New Hampshire, where he is currently tied for the lead, into actual votes without letting a possible shift in the all-important media narrative that could result from pesky pre-Feb. 5th potential Clinton wins such as South Carolina, Nevada and Michigan undermine some of his significant California support. But just because people can vote early doesn't mean they will. My sense is that among those who do choose to vote early, most will wait until enough states have voted so that they're convinced either that their vote could be decisive, i.e. that the candidate they support is still in the running, or that their vote doesn't actually matter, i.e. that the winner is all but determined.




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