Mason-Dixon & Zogby polls of Iowa

by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 11:23:28 AM EST

Two new polls out, from Zogby's tracking poll and Mason-Dixon. You can go and view all the numbers yourself, I'll blog on are the cumulative numbers (and their previous poll numbers), after the second choices are allocated:

Mason-Dixon

Edwards       33   (21)
Obama         26   (25)
Clinton       26   (27)
Other          3   (14)
Uncommitted    2
Undecided     10


Zogby

Clinton       35.8 (27)
Obama         33.4 (24)
Edwards       30.8 (21)
Other          0
Does it give you any better of an insight? Not really.




Tags: 2008 election, Iowa (all tags)

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Re: Mason-Dixon & Zogby polls of Iowa (none / 0)

HRC up, BO down. It's looking like a JRE upset.


by lonnette33 on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 11:26:59 AM EST

Re: Mason-Dixon & Zogby polls of Iowa (2.00 / 1)

That's what I'm seeing.

Edwards has the best organization, so I'd give him extra points if the pre-caucus polls showed a tie.


by Bush Bites on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 02:22:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Mason-Dixon & Zogby polls of Iowa (none / 0)

Agreed!


by lonnette33 on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:29:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mason-Dixon & Zogby polls of Iowa (none / 0)

From MsnbcMC latest poll
http://www.mcclatchydc.com/227/story/239 40.html

There is this
"The second tier is particularly important in Iowa's Democratic caucuses, where a candidate can win delegates only if they register at least 15 percent support in each town hall-like precinct meeting. Voters whose candidates don't make that threshold can support someone else.

As of now, that appears to help Edwards.

If all second-tier Democratic candidates fall short and their supporters switch to other candidates, Edwards gains the most, rolling up a clear lead at 33 percent to 26 percent each for Clinton and Obama.

Edwards, pushing a people-versus-the powerful message, owes his gains to voters looking for a general election winner, someone who agrees with them on the issues, and those who rank Iraq their top concern. Key demographic slices for him include men and union members.

Of note: more Iowa Democrats have a favorable impression of him -- and fewer have an unfavorable impression of him -- than any other candidate."

It has always been about 2nd choice...
buckle up..


"If you want to end war and stuff, you gotta sing loud"...Arlo Guthrie
by nogo war on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 11:35:28 AM EST

Look at the last 10 days or so (2.00 / 1)

Pretty clear from the polling that the Obama up tick is done, he seems to be falling back.

Clinton appears to be stabalized and moving back up.  She has lead in many of the polls.

Edwards seems to be coming on strong from third place and may just win it by a nose at the wire.


by dpANDREWS on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 11:38:46 AM EST

Re: Mason-Dixon & Zogby polls of Iowa (none / 0)

Looks like Edwards had the right strategy to fall back a bit from the lead, wait for the other candidates to spend all their money and attack each other, then close strong at the end. It's just like 2004, but this time he's been close all a long.

Btw, Zogby has 10% credibility according to this post at dailykos, looking at all the pollsters. DMR has the most credibility at 86%. McClatchy is at 44%.

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2007/12/30 /81513/321/270/427905


by Progressive America on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 11:39:07 AM EST

Re: Mason-Dixon & Zogby polls of Iowa (none / 0)

so why not wait for the last dmr poll or better yet wait for the caucus.

its just in 4 days you know lol.


Educated in a small town Taught to fear Jesus in a small town Used to daydream in that small town Another born romantic that's me.
by lori on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 11:41:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Diversity, Energy, GOTC and the Ground Game (none / 0)

It all comes down to GOTC.

Its a three-way tie and its going to be won by the campaign with the best ground game.

Consider this from the past two days:

600 attend an Obama event in Burlington.
500 attend an Obama event in Keokuck.
900 attend an Obama event in Davenport.
900 attend an Obama event in Coralville.
400 attend an Obama event in Clinton.
400 attend an Obama event in Marshalltown.

I heard they were already expecting 1000+ in Cedar Rapids.

And this from Marshalltown:

One longtime caucus-goer in attendance was surprised by the diversity and energy of the crowd. She said the crowd didn't look like your typical caucus-goers, but they were energetic and if they turn out then things will be looking good for Obama.

http://commoniowan.blogspot.com/


by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 11:45:06 AM EST

Re: Diversity, Energy, GOTC and the Ground Game (none / 0)

Those are all in eastern Iowa, most on the border of Illinois, except for Marshalltown. Those cities are Obama's base. So I would ask you how is Obama doing outside his base?

My thoughts are that if it wasn't for being from a border state, Obama might not be in this thing at all.


by Progressive America on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 11:52:34 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Diversity, Energy, GOTC and the Ground Game (none / 0)

Obama is getting two and three times what Iowa is seeing in some of the other campaigns....

Don't believe me then listen to the man himself:

Obama said he is enjoying campaign events crowds that are "two, three times what we are seeing in some of the other campaigns." He also expressed confidence in his ground operation in Iowa.

"We have as good of an organization as I think people have ever seen in Iowa, and this is going to be a tight race," he said. "I think the polls are going to be bouncing up and down over the next five days, but what we're confident about is that if our folks come to the caucus and participate, then we're going to do very well."

Asked whether he could be hurt by a lower turnout in Iowa, Obama said that's not what he is expecting. "I think everybody is predicting a big turnout at this point," he said on MTP.


http://www.swamppolitics.com/news/politi cs/blog/2007/12/on_meet_the_press_obama_ says_h.html#more


by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 12:06:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Diversity, Energy, GOTC and the Ground Game (none / 0)

Well then, it would appear that Obama has IA all sowed up. JRE and HRC are toast! LOL


by lonnette33 on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 11:54:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Diversity, Energy, GOTC and the Ground Game (none / 0)

Prepare your concession speech and avoid the scream


"Apparently they have an 11-month calendar over there that's missing the month of February," Obama strategist David Axelrod
by Jr1886 on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 12:01:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Diversity, Energy, GOTC and the Ground Game (none / 0)

I think I am, for all practical purposes, the only remaining Obama supporter left at MyDD.


by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:11:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Diversity, Energy, GOTC and the Ground Game (none / 0)

The thing is that the Iowa Dem Caucus isn't one man, one vote. If 1,000 people show up at a precinct which normally only gets 200, it won't matter. The precinct won't award any more delegates than if it had the normal 200 show up. OTOH, if the other 800 are all Obama voters, he will at least get 80% of the delegates from that precinct, which helps, but it's not like it will increase the total delegate count proportionately. And all those rural counties he is ignoring, provide a disproportionate number of delegates.


by TheWinch on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:38:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Diversity, Energy, GOTC and the Ground Game (none / 0)

And you don't think that the campaign is aware of that? Ground game means that you get your people where they need to be--on time, educated, informed, prepared and ready to go.

Obviously I have no idea what will actually happen--he may tank for all I know.

However, given what I do know--the energy and excitement, the rallies, the endorsements, the organization, the grass roots effort that has been in place for months, the proximately to Illinois, the lessons learned from Dean, the candidate as community organizer, the outreach to diverse populations like college students, high school students, people of color, independents, republicans, etc. suggests to me that Obama is putting together a unique coalition that will be there on January 3.

we will see.


by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 03:54:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Diversity, Energy, GOTC and the Ground Game (none / 0)

The focus on the Obama crowd sizes reminds me of the focus in the computer software industry on monster size software projects. It's so much easier for the media (and number crunchers) to notice an event with 10,000 people (or a software project with a 100,000,000 budget) than it is to notice a hundred 100 person events, or a thousand $100,000 software projects. So people tend to extrapolate from these big events what is happening everywhere.

The problem is that these "major size" phenomena tend to be smaller than the amount of "small" activities. Consequently no one really knows what the political movement is like (or the software industry).

I have a hunch that these huge crowds at Obama rallies mean very little.

At first glance, I'm much more impressed by his 472,000 donors, then I am by 30,000 people showing up at a stadium event.

OTOH, since it has been widely reported that the Obama campaign counts these minimal entrance fees to these major events as donations, I think the 472,000 donor count is greatly overstated. I wouldn't be at all surprised if Obama's real count of donors who donated more than 10$ (the cost of a trinket, or admission to some stadium event) is much closer to the number of donors that Clinton, Edwards and Ron Paul have. But we'll never know since no one has to report this information until donations exceed 200$. On that count, I expect Obama's numbers to be about 60,000 for 2007.


by TheWinch on Wed Jan 02, 2008 at 01:57:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Diversity, Energy, GOTC and the Ground Game (none / 0)

Good luck  Edwards has played these two like the corporate powers he demoloished in court


by marketingman on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 09:27:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Your paren numbers (none / 0)

are problematic to me UNLESS you are saying those are the combined w/second choice numbers. They look like the straight poll results. I think your graph is misleading. No offense meant. I see what you are doing and approve but you shopuld make sure to clarify, if I am right, that the paren numbers are NOT calculated in the same way. It will give the wrong impression regarding trends.
by Big Tent Democrat on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 11:59:04 AM EST

Re: Mason-Dixon & Zogby polls of Iowa (none / 0)

I live in Iowa at one of the locations listed above, there were a lot of people at the event that are not Obama supporters either, so crowd size is not a good indicator.  Remember Howard Dean had all of this energy from his supporters.


by CVDem on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 11:59:25 AM EST

Re: Mason-Dixon & Zogby polls of Iowa (none / 0)

The point isn't that all of those people are going to caucus for him, but that the energy and diversity will ensure that committed Obama supporters of all ages and stripes make it to the caucus on Thursday night.

And anyway I would rather be in Obama's shoes--herding energetic and excited folks-- than having to deal with this:

But the bulk of the campaigns' ground work is being done by activists such as Megan Mitchell, a 22-year-old Wellesley College graduate who works in Clinton's office in Ames, a college town north of Des Moines.

On Friday morning, Mitchell set out for the nearby city of Boone, armed with Clinton bumper stickers, a stack of addresses, and a GPS unit. Her charge was to visit supporters and remind them, gently but firmly, that they needed to caucus on Thursday.

Her first stop, a house in the shadow of the Boone water tower, was a success. The man at the door said he would be there, and could even drive others. Check.

But the next hour illustrated the grueling nature of political organizing. Even when people were home, which was not often, they were not always receptive. A woman at one house said from behind the door, "I'm not dressed," forcing Mitchell to return later. A woman in an apartment complex told her pointedly to leave. A third woman said she was a Clinton supporter but was unlikely to caucus.

Or this:

After some Clinton supporters expressed concern about venturing out in the snow, her campaign bought 500 shovels and devised a plan to clear their paths. On Friday, the campaign packed the shovels into U-Hauls and drove them to field offices across the state.

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articl es/2007/12/30/ground_game_is_key_for_dem ocrats/


by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 12:15:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

HUh? (none / 0)

That's the same for any canvasser; people who lean Obama aren't any more likely to be receptive to someone showing up at their door and asking them a bunch of questions. Some friends of mine drove up to IA to canvass for Obama and had doors slammed in their faces - at the homes of people who had Obama signs in their front lawns.


Join us at Show Me Progress!
by clarkent on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 01:54:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: HUh? (none / 0)

These are Clinton's most committed --the ones she has to have show up--not fly by nighters. They are folks who told someone on the phone that they loved her and would vote for her. read the article


by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 02:22:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mason-Dixon & (none / 0)

I didn't say anything of the kind. I do think that Clinton--has a ceiling in Iowa of 29-30 points-and she is counting on little old ladies who may or may not show up. I think the only way that she can win is if there is very very low turnout.


by aiko on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 04:14:41 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mason-Dixon & (none / 0)

Little old ladies deserve to vote too. Obama supporters think youth, beauty and masculine vigor is an exceptional virtue in a democracy.


by maxstar on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 08:54:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Mason-Dixon & Zogby polls of Iowa (none / 0)

So what happens if Biden or Richardson gets 15% in some of the precients


by orin76 on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 12:08:56 PM EST

Re: Mason-Dixon & Zogby polls of Iowa (none / 0)

or for that matter a good number of them and they keep their voters


by orin76 on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 12:16:47 PM EST

Re: Mason-Dixon & Zogby polls of Iowa (none / 0)

More worried about Mitt's rebound.

I can live with all the Democrats (even if I don't personally like one of them) but Mitt is a Ken Doll Nightmare.


by Bush Bites on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 02:27:58 PM EST

Re: NY TIMES (none / 0)

The Clinton, Edwards, and Obama camps seem to agree with this:
-- if turnout equals 2004 (approx. 125,000), advantage Edwards.
-- if turnout is slightly up (say, 130,000-140,000), advantage Clinton.
-- and if turnout is way up there (think 140,000+), advantage Obama.

iT IS ALL THE GROUND GAME


by BDM on Sun Dec 30, 2007 at 02:44:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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