As expected, earlier today the candidates released official statements on the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, as Ben Smith has catalogued over at The Politico. One statement in particular stood out for me.
Most of the candidates used their statements to back up claims of experience, Hillary focusing on her personal relationship with Bhutto "over many years," Biden continuing to stress his direct engagement with the international community, letting us know that he "twice urged President Musharraf to provide better security for Ms. Bhutto," and Edwards jumping into the fray, reminding us, as he rarely does, that he too has the foreign affairs experience that comes with being a senator:
"I have seen firsthand in Pakistan, and in meetings with Prime Minister Bhutto and President Musharraf, the instability of the country and the complexity of the challenges they face.
So what of Barack Obama's statement? I found it intriguing to the extent that it sort of turned the central Clinton v. Obama conflict on its head. As Ben Smith noted:
The arguments the leading candidates will make are already built in: Clinton, that it's a scary world, and not time for a hand less "steady" than hers; Obama, that the Clinton/Bush status quo has produced disaster after disaster, and it's time for a change.
So why was it that Obama's statement appeared to be the most fear-mongery of them all, invoking the word "terrorist" twice, accepting the Musharraf party line on the assassination (i.e that it was terrorists, while many blame Musharraf himself,) seeming to jump to conclusions that not even Fox News would make.
"I am shocked and saddened by the death of Benazir Bhutto in this terrorist atrocity. She was a respected and resilient advocate for the democratic aspirations of the Pakistani people. We join with them in mourning her loss and stand with them in their quest for democracy and against the terrorists who threaten the common security of the world."
Part of what was so bizarre about the statement is that, for someone who claims to want to bring about change from the "Bush/Clinton status quo" the statement certainly appeared to embrace the Bush "war on terror" frame, that there is a central conflict between terrorists and forces of democracy, reinforcing rather than subverting conventional status quo thinking.
But then, Big Tent Democrat brought us news of David Axelrod's response to reporters, which did precisely what Ben Smith had predicted: framed the assassination as the result of the conventional foreign policy thinking that led us to the war in Iraq and hence, a much more dangerous world.
“Obviously, one of the reasons that Pakistan is in the distress that it’s in is because al-Qaeda is resurgent, has become more powerful within that country and that’s a consequence of us taking the eye off the ball and making the wrong judgment in going into Iraq. That’s a serious difference between these candidates and I’m sure that people will take that into consideration.” . . . “She was a strong supporter of the war in Iraq, which we would submit, was one of the reasons why we were diverted from Afghanistan, Pakistan and al-Qaeda, who may have been players in this event today, so that’s a judgment she’ll have to defend,” Axelrod said.
So, you see, in order to make the latter argument, i.e. that Hillary Clinton's bad judgment on Iraq is indirectly responsible for the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, then the former statement, i.e. that terrorists are responsible for her death, must be true. And on some level, it's a necessary argument for the Obama team to make, to return to the judgment over experience formulation and to push back on the 'Hillary Clinton will benefit' meme, but I can't help but think it's a losing argument. At a basic level, it requires Democrats to blame Democrats such as Clinton, Biden, Dodd and Edwards for the increasingly dangerous world we live in to an equal degree that we blame Bush, not a stance most Democrats are likely willing to take.
This has always been the problem with Obama's argument stressing his judgment on Iraq; not only are Democrats unlikely to shift blame for Iraq away from Bush, but for most Democrats, this is a demon that has been previously purged by virtue of having supported John Kerry in 2004. Unfortunately for Obama, I suspect conventional wisdom will hold true in this case: experience will rise in the caucus hall and the voting booth alike over the coming weeks, but it's something that I suspect would have happened anyway even without today's tragic events.
Update [2007-12-27 19:22:24 by Todd Beeton]:Not terribly surprising, Axelrod is on the defensive over his comments today. Per Marc Ambinder:
I just recieved a call from David Axelrod, Obama's chief strategist, who told me that "in no way" was his comment about Hillary Clinton "meant to be an unprovoked, sort of strategic foray.""It was an answer to the question -- in no way was I implying that she was personally responsible for what happened."
I asked whether Axelrod meant to imply that her vote was in part responsible for creating the conditions that led to an Al Qaeda resurgance.
"All I’m implying is [about] the policy that the war in Iraq that Obama said in 2002 was going to distract us from Afghanistan and Pakistan and Al Qaeda, and that they would regenerate themselves and that they would become more powerful and influential. He exercised good judgment. She’ll have to explain her position."
Axelrod acknowledged it was fair to say that he was pointing out that votes have consequences, and that the Iraq vote Clinton took in 2002 had specific consequences that may have helped lead to an emboldened Al Qaeda.
Defense, not a place Obama wants to be seven days out.
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