This post is part of the candidate series on MyDD. I am not affiliated with the Dodd campaign in any way.

I firmly believe early primaries are about expectations. Under the nation's watchful eye, voters in the five states with primaries before Super-Duper Tuesday will likely decide - or at least have a large hand in deciding - the next Democratic nominee for President. The primary season drags on well into its 2nd year (Joe Biden, the first to declare he was running, did so on March 21st of 2006), bringing with it increased national speculation. (Don't believe me? Just turn on any 24-hour news station and listen for their political coverage. It's ALL speculation.)

All this pressure and scrutiny means expectations are key. If a candidate can beat expectations of how they will perform in the early primaries, they may well carry that momentum to the nomination. If a candidate fails to meet expectations, their candidacy is likely dead in the water.

For example, I believe a 2nd place finish for Hillary Clinton, especially if she finished 2nd in both Iowa and New Hampshire, would be devastating for her candidacy. To a large extent, she has built her campaign around the idea of her inevitability, and the media has fed into this image. A 2nd place finish would work against that expectation, and I suspect voters in later primaries would steer away from her towards a candidate with more momentum. On the other hand, a better than expected showing in Iowa could propel any of the other candidates to further successes, as evidenced by John Kerry and John Edwards winning the party nomination on the strength of their Iowa upset.

The importance of primary expectations gives me hope for Chris Dodd's chances next week. Currently, Chris Dodd is polling an average of 1.3% in Iowa. Therefore, expectations are low. Yet, Dodd has been in the news lately, and his recent stand against telecom immunity and for the Constitution is still fresh in many people's minds. According to the campaign, Dodd's fundraising has been way up as a result, and thousands of people have signed up for his email list or used tools his campaign provided to speak out against retroactive immunity. Clearly, a large grassroots movement - mostly unnoticed by the media - supports Dodd's strong actions.

I believe that when Iowa caucus goers make their voice heard on January 3rd, this grassroots movement will translate into votes. I believe Chris Dodd will roundly beat the low expectations the American electorate has for him. A strong enough finish in Iowa could easily propel Dodd to better than expected showings in New Hampshire (practically home state territory) and beyond.

Dodd has momentum and timing on his side. He's got years of experience standing up for progressive causes, too. Polls in Iowa are notoriously poor judges of caucus results, and expectations are low. Look for Dodd to pull out a surprise on January 3rd.