The latest ARG poll of the New Hampshire senate race (558 RVs, Dec. 16-19, MOE +/- 4.2%) shows John Sununu pulling ahead of Jeanne Shaheen for the first time since Shaheen declared for the seat in September. Since ARG and Rasmussen polls showed Shaheen leading Sununu by 5% in September, Sununu has consistently been behind by double digits, but now the tables appear to have turned.
Shaheen (D) 41
Sununu (R) 52
Undecided 7
As you might expect, this result appears to be a direct consequence of Bill Shaheen's not so subtle attack on Barack Obama earlier this month that led to his stepping down as New Hampshire co-chair of Hillary Clinton's campaign.
From Congressional Quarterly:
The name "Shaheen" appeared in the national news just a few days before the poll was taken, but it wasn't Jeanne Shaheen that made the headlines. Her husband, longtime Democratic presidential strategist Bill Shaheen, announced Dec. 13 that he was quitting his co-chairman position on Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton 's presidential campaign after making comments about Barack Obama and drug use that evoked strong criticism.Dick Bennett, president of American Research Group, told CQ Politics that he believes some poll respondents were influenced by the Shaheen flap because Democratic voters, especially those supporting Obama, may have negatively reacted to reminders that the Shaheen family has already signed on to Clinton's campaign.
Indeed, you look at the party breakdown of support for the two candidates and it certainly looks as though NH Democrats are punishing Shaheen for her husband's stunt. While 93% of Republicans say they support John Sununu, only 79% of Democrats support Shaheen and even 13% of Democrats say they'll support the Republican. This is in stark contrast to the 90% support Shaheen drew from New Hampshire Dems in the November Survey USA poll.
ARG president Dick Bennett warns that this result is likely a temporary aberration and that the race is likely to tighten once again, but it certainly sends a warning to Democrats not to take this race for granted and serves as a reminder to the presidential candidates and their surrogates as to just how much power, and with that, responsibility, they have when it comes to the down-ballot races in a presidential year. One of the knocks against Clinton is that her divisiveness and her potential to rally Republicans will hurt Democrats down ticket nationally; considering Bill Shaheen's connection to the Clinton campaign, this poll certainly does nothing to allay that fear.
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