While its far from over, with the campaign going into a bit of a holiday lull (ads about christmas instead of, say, implicit shots at each other's honesty), we're pretty close to it, closer, I think, than the actual 2 weeks suggests.  I don't think the next 2 weeks have room for the type of movement we've seen the last 2 weeks.

While no candidate can feel like they have a better than 50% chance of winning, I have to think Obama's campaign is feeling best of all.  Pollster's regression analysis shows him now holding a 2-pt lead in Iowa, where his organization has been lauded.  He's sky rocketing up in NH and Hillary is plummeting, with the race now within 5 and the trends setting up for him to pass her before the primary (and that's barring a game changing moment like, say, the results of the Iowa caucus).  He's trending up in SC, only down 8 per pollster but that will probably narrow even more once this data is put into the chart (its not up yet).  In Dec, Obama has been within the MOE with Clinton, or ahead (!), in every poll in SC save 1, a CNN poll.

So we have what is at best (for Clinton) a greatly narrowing race in all 3 states; at worst, Obama leading in Iowa, 3-5 points away or even tied in NH, and tied in SC.  And Obama has all the upward 'mo.

Edwards also is showing some upward momentum too in all 3 primary states, which makes one wonder if this could turn into a 2-person race between Obama and Edwards post Iowa.

Certainly Clinton wouldn't drop out, but if she gets 3rd in Iowa, which is certainly possible, no matter what the order, I'd expect Obama and Edwards to get big boosts in the other early states, which, coupled with their already-present upward mo, could propel both them past Hillary.  Crazy thought.  One caveat on that, though, is that if 1 candidate absolutely buries the other 2 in Iowa, obviously, (s)he would probably be the only candidate to get a boost.

I had a conversation with a friend of mine in S.C and i asked her why isnt Obama not getting many white south carolina democrats to support him in those polls and she said Barack is paying the price for how Jesse Jackson ran his campaign in '88.

In other word , to those white democrats , Barack looks too much like Jesse and Jesse campaigned on the notion that "every black people should vote for me" in '88 and i guess many of them did not like the polarization.

The fact that he has the endorsement of Jesse may hurt him.

Those white voters just does not trust black candidates and Obama is paying the price for it....If he could get a bit more support from white voters , he would be running away with S.C.

to overwhelmingly break his way if he wins white ones early. That's how he catches up nationally, will it happen? who knows.

I just don't see any candidate holding a greater than 50 percent shot at getting the nomination at this point.

As a matter of curiosity, have you put your money where your mouth is? The Iowa Electronic Market puts Clinton's chance at nomination at 56%; you've got a decent chance to make some cash.

http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph _DConv08_jpg.cfm

I think that Clinton's campaign probably feels pretty good right now. They have have several really good news cycles in a row. Further, the entire body of polling evidence suggests that she is a bit resurgent. She is part of a jump ball contest in Iowa, is a bit ahead in New Hampshire and is tied in South Carolina. Measured against, say, August this is not great. But I think that a lot of people who were giving her eulogy a few weeks ago (even last week) are probably alarmed that their "Clinton plummeting" narrative is, at the moment, no longer believable.

I don't know if good news cycles are helping her numbers in early states or what. More likely, some people have given Obama a last look and decided not to support him.

As far as probabilities, I think that I would give Sen. Clinton a little better than even odds to win the nomination. This is based on:

1. She still has a very reasonable shot to win in Iowa.

2. John Edwards has a very reasonable shot to win in Iowa. If Edwards is first and Obama is third, which is possible, it's a new race and Obama is not part of it.

3. Even with an Iowa loss, I think that her institutional advantages in NH will probably produce a win for her there.

4. There are a lot of big February 5th states that it is hard to imagine voting for anyone else, momentum or not. New York and California come to mind.

Sen. Clinton really could lose all three early states and win the nomination. I don't think she will lose all three early states, but even so. She has more paths to the nomination than the other candidates. If Edwards finishes anything other than first in Iowa, he's probably done. If Obama finished less than first in Iowa, he's very badly hurt, especially if Hillary finishes in front of him.

Polls in Iowa, we are repeatedly told, are valuable in terms of discerning trends and not predicting results. If the composition of caucusgoers resembles even roughly those in 2004, it is not out of the realm of possibility that Obama could finish third. In fact, my prediction is: Edwards / Clinton / Obama.
 

Obama is not going after NY on feb 5th, he is going to try nd win the nomination in the south and Midwest, states like Missouri and Goergia. Again black make up about 25% of dem primary voters nationwide if Obama wins the big 3 and they don't moove to him overwhelmingly I will be shocked.

Since Hillary Clinton has come this far with all the negative press that Obama has not had to deal with and she is still 1st place in some polls, there is a real strength there that some people in high places have not been able to knock down... If they have not knocked her down by now, they won't be able to..  Obama hasn't had this test...