It's hard to be objective about the other campaigns in New Hampshire but after knocking on about 80 doors of Democratic & Independent voters for Obama in NH this weekend it seems like it is a three tier race.  Right now the top tier is Clinton & Obama.  Distinctly in back are Edwards & Richardson and everybody else is nowhere.  

A win in Iowa would vaunt Edwards into the top tier but unless its a blowout I think he will still finish third in NH. In 2004 Edwards finished fourth, a whisker behind Wesley Clark.  A month ago Hillary was THE issue and Obama was a fresh face with potential.  Since then Hillary has lost ground but Obama has not closed the sale.  The choice is between nostalga for the Clinton years & change.  Voters who really care about experience, first & foremost, heavily favor Clinton but are considering Richardson.  A poor finish in Iowa would blow him into the low single digits, just like the temperature at night.

It has not always been this way but Iowa is where the action is and the margin is not close.  It shows.  There is lots going on in NH, but the reporters & general hoopla are over a thousand miles west.  Motel rooms, car rentals & airfares are still in discount price territory.  There are some signs around with Ron Paul & Hillary leading in the race along highway & street medians.  The front page of Saturday's Union Leader only mentioned the campaign in a one paragraph news digest.  Campaign headquarters are less prominent along downtown Manchester's Elm Street than in the other years I've been here, 1992, 2000 & 2004.  The peak of NH campaigning was in 1992 when the poobahs of the mainstream media decreed that Tom Harken's run rendered Iowa meaningless and that New Hampshire was the early ballgame.

There seemed to be a lot more radio ads for the Republicans.  I'd bet on Romney in the GOP primary.  Romney seems positioned like John Kerry was 4 years ago -- safe, dependable, unexciting and well known because he is from Massachusetts.

I canvassed in Manchester and Goffstown, mostly in the latter.  It's a pretty place if you like rolling hills, big yards, long driveways and enjoy shoveling snow and driving at least a few miles to buy a cup of coffee or a gallon of milk.  The roads are well cleared (I got out just before the second big storm of the week) but the hilly driveways are mostly ice.  Once I had to seek a voters' assistance to push my car as I spun the tires on pure, thick, ice.  I had canvassed some of the exact same territory back in July.  I much prefer July but the political conversation was much better this time.  Back then nobody wanted to talk politics.  This time they are into it with some sincerely struggling to decide. A few people invited me in and we talked politics in the living room.

No one candidate dominates any particular issue.  Among voters who care about the war there is no clear favorite.  Hillary probably does better with those who care most about health care.  Obama does best with those who are sick of the mess in Washington.  A lot of the independents probably won't vote but I think Obama will have the edge among those who are motivated.  The Democrats seem fairly happy with at least most of the candidates.  I think Hillary is helped a bit as the only woman candidate.  A few people I canvassed had gone to the big Obama rally with Oprah last week but they were STILL undecided.  A lot of people probably have decided but don't want to tell anyone -- least of all a stranger, even a friendly one -- lest the volume of phone calls increase.

The Obama ground operation is a good one.  The field organizers are tops but they need a little more rest before the big finish and a little more nutrition.  Nobody seems to eat anything except for Dunkin Donuts.   Most look like they just pulled two all-nighters preceded by some fairly heavy partying & maybe a cold.  The senior staff are quiet and absorbed in their specialized political niches hunched over computers.  Most seem both tired & excited at the same time.  There is a steady stream of Obama volunteers but it is not a mighty river.  By Jan. 8 we will be fired up, ready to go and burned out by the time the polls close.

(cross posted at Daily Kos)